Allan Hubbard Saga: VIDEO - Hubbard Biographer Virginia Green on TVNZ Breakfast

Source - TVNZ Breakfast

The author Virginia Green has been shopping her Allan Hubbard Bio, Allan Hubbard: Man Out of Time around the traps this week and this morning stopped at TVNZ's Breakfast to give her view of the Hubster.

She is asked about whether the book is an authorised biography or unauthorised but dodges the question by answering a question not asked. The book was indeed authorised by Mr Hubbard and he worked closely with Virginia on the book, especially the last few chapters on the collapse of his business empire.

In this interview when asked who was to blame for the collapse of South Canterbury Finance (SCF) Virginia places no blame on him, instead poking the finger at the Government and advisors to Hubbard.

She also repeats the often much quoted "rescue package" that was allegdly in place just days before the collapse of SCF.

This deal may have been stitched up but it involved recapitalizing SCF and included money from the taxpayer. These kinds of deals have been put forward multiple times over the last few years in relation to collapsed finance companies and none of them have been successful, in fact they have all led to further loses for investors. The most notable failure being the Hanover/Allied Farmers recapitalisation at the end of 2009.

There was therefore no reason to believe that SCF rescue package would be different to any other that had gone before and indeed it had the potential to risk even more taxpayer money had SCF not been put into receivership by the Government.

Virginia is following the line of Allan Hubbard supporters that dear old Mr Hubbard was a victim of circumstance and fell at the hands of others.

I hope the whole book isn't like that.

I now have the bio to read, courtesy of Sarah Thornton from publisher, Random House, so I will give you an opinion after I trudge my way through it over the next week or so.

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Chart of the Day: Ecoya Ltd

Ecoya Ltd [ECO.NZX] listed on the NZX on May 3 after an IPO price of $1 per share with two warrants attached to each share.

With a high of $1.01 shortly after listing, the share is now thinly traded at 75c per share as of close of business, Tuesday 16 November 2010.

The company and its shares were never going to set the world on fire because much of the company's future prospects lies in the possibility that the company will be a major player in the body and bath and home fragrance sector currently occupied by a number of global giants.

It is therefore a very risky investment for investors but many ECO shareholders have put their faith in CEO Geoff Ross, who has a track record of success with start up companies like Ecoya.

If you were initially interested in buying into some of Geoff's business cache' but baulked at the high valuation the company put on themselves in their IPO , now might be the time to start looking if you think the company is going to be a good long term bet.

I am picking the market is going to lose patience if they do not see some tracking towards a profit or at least a good sales story, so there could be some further weakness in share price.

Having said that, as this stock is very thinly traded any positive news will see a very good upside in share price as mums and dads want to share in the success of a possible future star.



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Chart of the Week: Briscoe Group Ltd

Briscoe Group Ltd [BGR.NZX] has had a pretty good year in terms of sales figures and 2010 profit results.

In the middle of one of the worst recessions in 80 years the company has managed to grow sales quite substantially and profit is well up on a poor 2009.

This stands in contrast to other retailers that BGR competes with.

It is a well run company, with no debt and an excellent management team, especially the CEO and majority shareholder, Rod Duke.

This has of course had a major impact on the BGR share price.

In 3 months the stock has added 25% to close at $1.42 yesterday - see 3 month chart above.

By comparison the NZX 50 rose by 10% (see 3 month comparison chart below), so the 15% gulf is quite a substantial movement away from the market as a whole.

This means the company is going to have to deliver on the expectation that the market has for the company and bring home a very good Christmas result.

If you think they cant it looks like the chart is saying to short termers that they should be calling their brokers, while long term holders like me could see a good opportunity to grab more should father Christmas not bring home the bacon or in BGR's case the moola.




Disc I own BGR shares in the Share Investor Portfolio


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Kathmandu Holdings Ltd: The First Year

Kathmandu Holding Ltd [KMD.NZX] have had a particularly bad first year as a listed company.

Profit levels and prospectus promises have failed to hit the mark and the share price has dropped by 22% to $1.67 since its November 12 2009 debut at NZ$2.13 on the NZX.

The prospects for the company, like many other retailers, do not look good for 2011 but for KMD look quite frightful considering its high debt levels and the prospect of more spending on new stores as the company expands to grow the company quickly and not break more IPO promises.

On the share price front, $1.67 is not far off the 52 week low of $1.54 set in September 2010 but of course doesn't really show any identifiable trading pattern yet after only one year. The share price has been much weaker over the last month and we should expect a further drop in January if Christmas sales don't deliver.

Might then be time for taking another look at the fundamentals based on a much lower share price.

Happy Trading.

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