Stock of the Week: Xero Ltd

For this week's Stock of the Week I want to throw caution to the wind and pick a stock in an industry I know nothing at all about except that it has an over propensity of nerds working in it and some of them are billionaires.

The company is Xero Ltd [XRO.NZ] and the industry that it competes in is computer software, in Xero's case online business accounting software, you can find out more about Xero at Kelvin Hartnell's excellent blog, he is a big fan and a happy shareholder.

Warren Buffett says he doesn't invest in companies and industries he doesn't understand and the same goes for me, but some of you out there reading this just might know what this company is about and can see the potential it might have in the future.

Xero has yet to make money, but is making inroads into its sector of competence, big boys like Quicken and MYOB are starting to notice their presence but the company has still yet to make some green stuff. It doesn't look likely it will soon either.

Like I said though, the potential is there to make some big money, if they really take off or lose the lot if the company ends in tears. This is a high risk investment, with any payoff being long-term.

It has some big backers in New Zealand, like Sam Morgan of TradeMe fame but its share price has taken a bit of an upwards trajectory over the last 4 months going from around 65c to its present $1.38 at close of market yesterday, so it makes the company a whole lot more unattractive at these prices.

If you know this industry though, this stock could be for you on weakness.

Good luck!


Stock of the Week Series

Auckland International Airport
Sky City Entertainment Group
Burger Fuel Worldwide
Michael Hill International
Contact Energy Ltd
The Warehouse Group
Fisher & Paykel Appliances


Xero @ Share Investor

Share Investor Interview: Xero's Rod Drury
FY 2010 Profit Result
Xero Ltd: Download full Company Analysis
Rod Drury ready for the long-haul with Xero
Rod Drury on Xero and Growing Business
Xero set for surprise to the Market?
Love Xero?
Share Investor's 2010 Stock Picks
Stock of the Week: Xero Ltd

Discuss Xero @ Share Investor Forum




c Share Investor 2009

Alan Bollard Speaks, but who is listening?

He was wrong about hiking interest rates and he took far too long to drop them again. Now he needs to start raising interest rates but still no sign of that. Last year Alan Bollard, Reserve Bank Governor, also said the recession was over.

How can we then take seriously Bollard's claim made today that:

"New Zealand is likely to begin recovering from the global financial crisis ahead of the pack".

NZ Herald 14/07/09

I am not sure what he is pointing as to evidence of this rather bold claim but his track record is littered with inaccuracies and bumbling wrong moves with a penchant to be somewhat Schizoid.

Is this supposed to inspire confidence for the average kiwi?

The stockmarket didn't believe a word of his pronouncement, rising only a handful of points when the large DOW movement up overnight indicated there should have been a good rise on the NZX today.

More astounding and confusing remarks today from the Gov given his decree last year that the recession was over:

"We appear to have avoided a repeat of the Great Depression. After the plummet in activity through to early 2009, production seems to be stabilising (Europe), to have stabilised (USA) or even turned around (some Asian economies)." NZ Herald - 14/7/09

But didn't he say late last year that the recession was over while we were at the height of the US banking collapse and hasn't the recession continued until the present day?

Well, yes he did and it has:

However, Bollard indicated at a press conference today that he thought the recession in this country was already over.

"If you want to be technical about it we believe the recession has ended and we have positive but very low growth for the next four quarters. It's only towards the second half of next year that one can be sure that we're getting solid growth," he said. "Those numbers in New Zealand can jump around and historically they tend to improve rather than getting worse.

Bollard said the recession was actually quite shallow and a lot shallower than in the past.
Stuff.co.nz - 4/12/08

What the...?!

So if you cant decide from day to day how things were, are, or are going to be Mr Bollard then how are we expected to decide? It kinda makes you wonder of the relevancy of a Reserve Bank Governor in the first place.

Why not let the market decide what interest rates it wants, it would at least be more accurate and reflect market conditions far more competently than a soothsayer.

Best leave the fortune telling for the Woman's Day.


Related Share Investor Reading

Alan Bollard's indecision over OCR a worry to NZ INC
Bollard sits on his hands
Mr Conservative

Discuss this topic @ Share Investor Forum



Buy Toughen Up: What I've Learned About Surviving Tough Times



Toughen Up - Fishpond.co.nz



c Share Investor 2009

Fletcher Building's Commercial arm keeps their head above the tunnel

Fletcher Building Ltd [FBU.NZ] getting a large part of the NZ$406 million contract to build the road tunnel under Victoria Park in Auckland is not only evidence of their dominance in contracting in this part of the world, it is an indication of its underlying strength in the recession hit market.

That underlying strength lay in the ability of the company to fall back on its commercial/infrastructural arm while its residential building group has been hit by the big slowdown in the residential building sector.

Not only does this Auckland roading project provide revenue from actually building the tunnel but it also provides revenue for Fletcher's add-on divisions. Concrete, steel, aggregates and more can be provided from FBU's various businesses.

There is more of this infrastructure building to come. Stadiums around the country are being built or refurbished in time for the 2011 World Cup and Fletchers will probably have a hand in somewhere building most of them.

The other road tunnel to be built, in the Waterview part of Auckland, will also no doubt get FBU input somewhere.

The company is one of a few large enough the ability and infrastructure themselves to be able to build these sorts of large projects and Fletcher stand above most when it comes to the tender process.

They are big, have the expertise, knowledge and relationships and that will help them through the next few recession hit years.

Shareholders just need to be patient.

Disc: I own a small FBU holding in the Share Investor Portfolio

Fletcher Building @ Share Investor

Sweetheart deal for Fletcher Building's Friends
Fletcher House built on hard times
Fletcher Building down tools in the short term
Why did you buy that stock? [Fletcher Building Ltd]
A solid foundation for the future
Fletcher Building raises profit through canny management
Fletcher's got game

Discuss this stock @ Share Investor Forum

Related Amazon Reading



Project Management in Construction (McGraw-Hill Professional Engineering) by Sidney M. Levy
Buy new: $71.96 / Used from: $60.71
Usually ships in 24 hours

c Share Investor 2009

ING/ANZ Deadline not necessarily the end

The deadline looms at the end of business today for those investors embroiled in the ING/ANZ fraud where some investors were duped into buying into highly risky funds after being told by their teller at ANZ, their investment advisers or ING directly that they were getting low risk investments, to accept on offer from ING/ANZ of 60c in the dollar in return for their silence.

Methinks that most investors would have signed up for this as many are elderly and/or ignorant of other alternatives. Once these people have accepted ING/ANZ's measly offer they could be signing away their rights to take action against those that are culpable, for ANZ/ING has required them to sign a waiver against action of any kind, or even speaking about it, if they accept their offer.

Having said that, given that individuals are signing under a form of duress then any legal rights they may have waived by signing could be argued against in a court by a multi-party action.

I argued other alternatives a month or so back but acceptance of the offer that closes at 5.00pm today could be a good bet given that the Fair Trading Act and Consumer Guarantees Act are strong laws that can be used to trump any flimsy legal waivers signed under force or some form of duress, as is the case here.

Since my last column on this subject I have become aware of two other distant friends who have respectively lost NZ$ 800,000.00 and $2 million dollars in this scam.


Timetable for ING/ANZ investors

* Investors have until Monday, July 13, 5.00pm to decide on ING's proposal.

* Investors who went through the ANZ Bank have until July 31 to make a formal complaint.

* Investors who accept the offer should gain access to their money by August 28.

* Those who don't accept the offer will continue to own units in the funds.

* Investigations by the Commerce Commission are ongoing but won't be completed by the decision deadline.

* Complaints have also been made to the Securities Commission asking it to delay the offer until the Commerce Commission has ruled but the commission said yesterday it had no ability to stop the offer going ahead because the offer is not misleading or deceptive.

Timetable from NZ Herald


ING/ANZ scam @ Share Investor

• ING & ANZ duped "investors" can take their own action
• Scam Watch: Helpful Investor Tools

Discuss this Topic @ Share Investor Forum


Related Links

Citizens Advice Bureau
Disputes Tribunal
Fair Trading Act


Related Fishpond Reading



$32.99 from Fishpond - 13% off.


c Share Investor 2009