Monday, March 16, 2009

Briscoe's cash worth looking at

Rod Duke, majority owner of the Briscoe Group [BGR.NZ] is a stingy bastard. He would make Scrooge McDuck look like the free spending Donald Trump.

This is meant to be a compliment.

I knew Duke and his company was sitting on a pile of cash, around NZ$ 40 million, with NO DEBT, but it turns out that over the last year this pile has increased to some $63 million, up from the previous years $49 million.

We know he has been busy with his own money building up a stake in kids clothing retailer Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL.NZ] but Briscoe's penny pinching ways over the last year have worked a treat:

"We've been very frugal. It's been very fruitful our efforts to save and minimise costs," Briscoe managing director and majority shareholder Rod Duke said.

He said there had been no consideration given to paying out some of the extra money as a special dividend.

He has also hinted at acquisitions:

There might also be acquisition opportunities. "That hasn't passed me by either. It would have to be pretty good to coax some money out of me right now, but look... when things look as though they are going to be good, Rod's going to be there with a pocketful of money.

May I suggest Pumpkin Patch or Postie Plus? [PPG.NZ]

Full Year Profit to 25 Jan 2009 was down 48% in a depressed retail market.

Meanwhile back to that cash.

Briscoe's $63 million cash hoard means there is almost 30c for every share and at today's closing of 62c that makes Briscoe one of the better companies on the NZX in terms of financial robustness.

I am seriously looking at adding more and kicking myself for not noticing this earlier.


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"Sin" stocks saintly for the Wallet

My largest holding, Sky City Entertainment [SKC.NZ] is doing well at the moment.

For the six months ending 31 December 2008 profit was tracking last years' half and I have been telling anyone who would listen at every opportunity that it is a good buy at current share price levels .

With the interim report out today comes the news that gaming revenue at Auckland Casino is up by 4% while Adelaide and Darwin are up by around 14%.

Great news considering the economic downturn.

Lion Nathan [LNN.NZ] the Australasian brewer, majority owned by Japan's Kirin is keeping its head above the foam well with drinkers of their product reaching for a cold one more often and when they do its one of those fancy "premium" beers that poofters and women drink-it works for them though.

Profit was up 4% for the 2008 full ear.

Unfortunately Lion Nathan's share price reflects their strong position in the current economy and is near its highs.

Another stock that has done well share price wise during this current downturn is Restaurant Brands [RBD.NZ] Believe it or not its stock has gone up over the overall market downturn-its big drop ironically came before the recession.

The operator of Pizza Hut, KFC and Starbucks in New Zealand has been selling its product better than it does normally-a temporary thing methinks-because of the recession so says its usually media shy CEO. Diners are apparently "trading down", every chicken has its day I guess.

These are the only 3 "sin" stocks listed on the NZX (Restaurant Brands is considered one by the food Nazis so I respectfully put it there) and they will do well in any downturn.

People like to gamble, drink, smoke, have sex and eat "junk" food and they especially like to do these things during a recession.

If you are reading this from another market consider tobacco, oil and sex related stocks if you have them listed on your local bourse.

They well might give you a lift.

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Sunday, March 15, 2009

Matt McCarten tells a Whopper

We all know the left of the political sphere will do just about anything at all to make a point and Matt McCarten in the Sunday Herald is no exception:

"Warren Buffett...has claimed that capitalism as we know it is over". NZ Herald 15 March 2009

Those of us that know a little about Warren Buffett, and I know a reasonable amount about the great investor, will know that he said nothing of the sort.

In Buffett's 2008 Letter to Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders out two weeks ago he actually endorsed the American capitalist system more strongly than he ever has: 

"America has had no shortage of challenges.

Without fail, however, we’ve overcome them. In the face of those obstacles – and many others – the real standard of living for Americans improved nearly seven-fold during the 1900s, while the Dow Jones Industrials rose from 66 to 11,497. Compare the record of this period with the dozens of centuries during which humans secured only tiny gains, if any, in how they lived. Though the path has not been smooth, our economic system has worked extraordinarily well over time. It has unleashed human potential as no other system has, and it will continue to do so. America’s best days lie ahead". Page 2, 2008 Berkshire Hathaway Letter.

Buffett is talking about capitalism here, no doubt about it and while acknowledging its drawbacks he also re-enforces his faith that it will bring us out of the mainly Government induced economic mess we now find ourselves in.

What McCarten has said is at best stretching the truth to breaking point and at worst an outright lie.

I lean towards the latter in describing what McCarten has written.

He uses the rest of the article to rant about his usual socialist ideals of Government control and state interference. The rest is misfired commentary on things he knows little about; economics, business, finance and probably life in general.

Steer clear.

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Saturday, March 14, 2009

Bonds: "Investment Grade" Bonds

Contact Energy's [CEN.NZ] NZ$550 million retail bond issue-with the scope to accept "unlimited subscriptions- is being issued principally to pay off existing debt on company books but to also use for day to day business and capital investment.

It already has very high debt levels.

The company is finding it hard to borrow money elsewhere so is going to kiwi mum and dads with their hands out.

In that respect they are not alone. Fontera, NZ Post, Auckland International Airport [AIA.NZ] and others have or will offer bonds to the public to bolster ailing balance sheets.

The only problem is that interest rates being offered do not always reflect the risk investors will be taking.

While Contact Energy is a stable near monopoly and isn't about to go bust any time soon it faces some uncertainty in regards to regulation, raw power production, customer demand and clearly their ability to fund even higher debt levels will be hampered.

Their unsecured, unsubordinated bonds, which will be issued for a term of five years have been assigned a credit rating of BBB by Standard & Poor's and that is in the lower to medium level in the S & P investment grade rankings.

While 8% is a great rate in these low return economic times, that interest rate simply doesn't reflect the risk being taken by investors.

Investors interested in taking a punt on Contact Energy would be best to buy shares in the company rather than these unsecured bonds. They are at attractive prices and make a good investment in uncertain times.

Contact Energy shares were up 7c today to $5.67 on positive wider market sentiment.



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