Sunday, May 25, 2008

Labour and their Last Crusade


“We just don't believe in tax cuts - it's against our fundamental philosophy - after all we are socialists and proud of it.”

Dr Michael Cullen


No wonder Dr Cullen found it difficult to announce his meager tax cuts in this weeks 2008 budget announcement, because his party simply does not fundamentally believe that personal tax cuts are deserved by the working people of this country.

Cullen of course believes that he knows best and that he should hold on to most of your money because he knows best how to spend it. He has done that for 9 years now and simply because it is election year he is giving your money back at an average $16 per week. The price of a ticket to the latest Indiana Jones movie.

We all know that tax cuts do stimulate economies but this is far too little and far too late. Costs imposed on individuals and business by Labour put us way behind where we were in 1999 and most workers would require $200-300 to have them back at status quo.


Related Political Animal reading

Michael Cullen's history on tax cuts comes back to haunt him
Pointing fingers in the playground
At least Robin Hood was honest
The black economy makes sense
Labours State Control out of control


We can exclude so-called "working for families" from the tax equation because it is welfare and we are talking about tax cuts here and not handouts.

The focus of this budget on yet more welfare, through working for families, higher student allowances and unemployment benefits and higher profligate spending on embassies, Governor General house renovations and train set purchases just shows where Labour's priorities lie. The extra spending on these u necessaries far outweighs their meagre cuts in taxes and in these dire economic times you cut back on spending, you don't spend more on luxuries.

That is where the wriggle room for National comes in promising more money going back to those who earn't it in the first place.

A far better tax cut regime would have been the first NZ$10000.00 tax free and a progressive rise to around 20% tax rate to $30,000 of income then a tapering off to 10% after that as incomes go higher-an incentive to work harder/smarter, instead of the current disincentive as the tax rates go higher the more you earn. That ain't going to happen under National either but one can dream nonetheless!

If this was a budget to help pout those in need because of the current blow out in oil, food and service prices then the October 1 cuts would have been brought forward to June 1 but there will be an election not long after Oct 1 and as Michael Cullen rightly says:

My view is that tax cuts are largely offered as a political bribe, not because of beneficial economic or social effects.
Dr Michael Cullen

Cullen's maxim doesn't not apply to National as they have always been consistent on personal tax cuts. They believe in them, they always have and it has always been one of that party's main economic tenants-that is, kiwis know best how to spend their own money, not the government.

A chorus that has been sung by Labour since our economy went pear shaped and reiterated in the budget is that "global economic conditions" have affected our economy. Sure they have, but the largest negative affect by far has been Labour's mis-management of the economy for the last 9 years. Hard work by our businesses and middle classes (those that provide the bulk of taxes) provided the best economic conditions in generations but the good times were squandered by Labour. High taxes, regulation and reckless government spending have led to a doubling of mortgage rates, higher food and energy prices and inflation. These things happed before any global slowdown and it is simply a lie to say otherwise.

What was needed in the 2008 budget was a vision for its people. That is, a strong focus on hard work and personal responsibility and incentives to enable that. What we got was more of the same. Energies channeled on State involvement in our lives and a tax and spend policy that would extend into a Labour 4th term should we all be unlucky enough to have them foisted upon us again for another 3 years.

We will leave the second to last word(because I always get the upper hand over her) to our Aunty Helen:

Tax cuts are a path to inequality. They are the promises of a vision-less and intellectually bankrupt people. Helen Clark, speech to 2000 labour Party Conference

Tax cuts are actually the path to fairness, equity and personal responsibility, the intellectually bankrupt tag goes to those who disagree or would cut personal taxes weeks before an election.





c Political Animal 2008






NZ Stockmarket set for discontent Winter and Summer

Pressure on the New Zealand stockmarket has been coming from the global credit squeeze and the subsequent fallout from that but negative influence from the local economy has also held sway.

We have seen over 10 finance companies collapse over the last 2 years and the local real estate bubble has started to deflate. A record number of people losing their jobs in the last quarter, negative consumer spending, the lowest ever business confidence index and pressure from ever higher food prices, sustained high mortgage rates, record oil prices and continued reckless government spending forecast in the 2008 Budget don't make for a pretty picture at all.

The New Zealand stockmarket has held up reasonably well to this news over recent months but these economic influences are going to impact on real company results come next reporting season.

We have already seen retailers report their latest profits for the March year and few did well, clearly things look even worse for these retailers come October.

Discretionary retail spending is one thing but impacts are going to be felt in every sector of the market; building, real estate,infrastructure and agriculture, but a few. The only listed companies unlikely to be affected at all are our electricity energy retailers and generators-we still need to heat our homes as we hunker down for this winter of discontent.

Long overdue tax cuts come October 1 are too small to stimulate our economy very much, and perhaps the only thing they will stimulate is inflation and therefore mortgage rates because the tax cuts don't come hand in hand with government cost cutting-very important when you have tight economic times.

I don't pick market bottoms, it is almost impossible to do and it can get awfully smelly if gotten wrong, but hopefully if you have picked your portfolio well and add to it as the bargains come then you will be well positioned when the upswing comes.

Mine is still around NZ$25,000.00 in the green but I'm still prepared to get into the red when the proverbial really hits the fan.

Lets hope the spray back doesn't hit a full blown gale!

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Thursday, May 22, 2008

Commodities bubble set to burst


Jed Clampett struck crude in his backyard while a hunt'n and he ended up living the high life in Beverly Hills and lived a very happy life with Jethro and the whole clan. He would have been even wealthier today.

As we speak, the price of Nymex crude futures is US $134.40 a BBL, LME copper futures are US$8299 a metric tonne, wheat futures US $787 a bushel and a whole host of the worlds other commodities: gold, steel, aluminum etc are at record prices and show little sign of slowing down their upwards trajectory.

Sure, much of the reason why these commodities keep climbing are because of unprecedented demand from the likes of China and India and the use of soy, maize and other food crops to make Bio-fuel, are having an impact on food prices but one cant underestimate the effect speculators and traders are having on commodity prices.

At just shy of US$135 bucks the oil price has far outstripped the upward pressure that pure demand would put on it and just like any other bubble, the commodity bubble is inevitably going to burst.

When is not clear but just like the stock booms of the past, the tech bubble of 2000 and the current real estate collapse, what goes up inevitably comes down. It would simply defy history for this not to happen.

So what is the problem? you might ask. Well the big headache will be that this sector of the investing market is now getting manifold increases in money being invested; by individuals, hedge funds, banks, pension funds and all the other derivative, bond holding, debt laden fund raising schemes(that I don't completely understand) that were involved in the Sub-Prime mortgage sector.

This wouldn't be so bad if the direct investors were the only ones burned when things go pear shaped but as we know these things have a tendency to effect the real economy and therefore the average man on the street.

These speculators have bailed from the stockmarket and real estate and are now creating another bubble that will burst like Elle May Clampet out of her gingham top.

The consequences of a commodity bubble bursting though will be a whole lot less attractive than Elle May's décolletage.

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Wednesday, May 21, 2008

2008 New Zealand Budget News

Michael Cullen will be making probably his last budget and will be pulling out all the stops to retain the power he and his mate Helen crave.

Come and check out a full wrap of news, opinion and facts from the 2008 New Zealand Budget here