Thursday, February 28, 2008

Hard times make Great Businesses

Efficiencies gained during economic downturns are good for business long-term. New Zealand businesses need to seize the opportunity now to focus on producing innovative, value added, niche products and services to increase export and business profit margins and stop using the current conditions to moan about their situation.

So the New Zealand dollar is at a post float 23 year high, exporters are hurting financially and moaning about it, petrol and energy costs are crippling, labour costs keep rising, mortgage rates are spiraling, Kiwis are leaving in record numbers and it is due to get much worse should Labour be returned to office come election time and time to back up promises of pre-election spending come home to roost.

There is little we can do about the current government imposed meltdown except push on and continue to try and do business.

I'm continually unimpressed with John Bongard from Fisher and Paykel Appliances, farmers and other exporters coming out in the media every time the dollar goes up another cent, John's energies and expertise would be well better focused on improving efficiencies at his factories-27 people have just got the push from his South Island factory- in whatever way he can.

His push into Thailand is a great idea and clearly his company would well benefit from moving more of the New Zealand enterprise there. Businesses change, as do circumstances, and we must change to fit as things move on.

I'm not sure what John hopes to achieve by moaning and bitching but the days of protectionism from the Government for his sort of business seem over and he cant fall back on his companies history of operating as the bully boy, protected, monopoly it once was.

The reason business owners start a business in the first place is to presumably gain some sort of independence and freedom from working for others. The corollary of that independence is the responsibility to take account for the business and the conditions in which it operates under.

Sure, it is tough when you can see profit walking out the door as the NZ dollar ticks up another cent but these tougher times are good for business in the long run. There is nothing like testing how good management really are when the shite hits the fan. It is hard times like these that really great companies are made. To shave off cost by doing something better or more efficiently or investing in new technology to advance the product you are making.

This cycle of business is important to the long term sustainability of a company. When the fat is trimmed and efficiencies gained the company can lay a foundation to move in a more positive way.

Clearly some companies have always been well managed and there is nary a scrap of fat to trim. When looking for such a company to invest in, try to avoid businesses with an oversupply of superfluous expensive middle management - a really good sign something isn't right in a company structure. One drowning in such an over supply is Restaurant Brands, the fast food operator.

New Zealand is a small market and we produce small volumes of everything we export and we have heard ad nauseum about kiwi business "finding their niche" and it is true that this is the way our economy can really push ahead.

Now is a great time to start. Margins for exporters and local producers and sellers are being squeezed tighter than Michael Cullen's nether regions when the words "tax cut" are used, so to focus on upping that margin makes prudent sense.

We can never compete internationally on a volume basis with our largely commodity based export industry, so we have to process, package and re manufacture our commodities to squeeze more dollars from foreign pockets.

Current conditions are pressing, on business and consumers. We can use these conditions though to finally look at actually doing what our "business leaders" and politicians have been rabbiting on about for years.

Working smarter and more efficiently isn't just a Labour party PC catchphrase, it is an important part of New Zealand's future. A future where we are smarter and more efficient and as a consequence wealthier and therefore healthier and happier.

Lets hope the John Bongards of our business world can be a little wiser, stop moaning and put their money where their mouth is instead of foaming at the mouth.

Lets be a little more proactive rather than reactive to business conditions.


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Related Amazon Reading

Harvard Business Review on Crisis Management (A Harvard Business Review Paperback)
Harvard Business Review on Crisis Management (A Harvard Business Review Paperback) by Norman R. Augustine
Buy new: $13.57 / Used from: $6.50
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c Share Investor 2008

Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Goodman Fielder hit by high commodity prices

http://www.rspo.org/images/members/Goodman%20Fielder.jpg

Goodman Fielder's profit, after abnormals, was down
by 26% in the half year to Dec 31 2008 due mostly to
high commodity prices, especially wheat.



Like every business in New Zealand, Goodman Fielder Ltd [GFF.NZ] last half year has been about managing business costs.

Key Indicators

* revenue of $1316.8 million, an increase of 8.3% over 2007
* Normalised net profit after tax was $108.7 million, up by 7.2% (excluding one-off factory
closing costs)
* Operating cash flow increased by 20.9% to $95.3 million
* Dairy revenues exceptionally strong

Full NZX GFF profit announcement

Commodity prices for the Australasian food giant have increased with monotonous regularity and have tested all important margins for the company.

This has been largely ameliorated by production efficiencies, absorbing some costs and as all us consumers are well aware, passing on raw ingredient prices to consumers.

Goodman will continue to focus on cost management as commodity prices are likely to continue to increase, at least in the short to medium term. The Australian drought has impacted wheat prices especially, my favourite Goodman bread Vogels now retailing above 4 bucks, and it isn't clear whether there will be any slow down in that staple any time soon. The drought and consumption by India and China have sent wheat prices to all time highs.

Sustained rain across the wheat belts in OZ recently may bring hope for the next crop however.

The test of future performance for Goodman Fielder will be managing retail price increases so as not to annoy consumers too much and hand market share to competitors.

Having said that, management should be careful not to fall into the trap of gaining market share at the expense of margins and therefore profit.

Management have given a measured indication of future performance and an out clause of increases in the aforementioned commodity prices for indicative profit:

The company confirms previous guidance that it expects to deliver NPAT (pre significant items) for the F08 financial year of around the same level as for the previous financial year, with a sensitivity of plus or minus 5% reflecting the extreme volatility of commodity costs.


Like Goodman Fielder, foreign food makers are
under pressure on two fronts. With record
commodity costs forcing them to raise prices,
consumers are opting for cheaper products
while critics insist that the industry is milking
the situation.


According to the Sydney Morning Herald, Goodman may be interested in the cheese,yogurt and milk maker, Dairy Farmers.

"Clearly Dairy Farmers is of strategic value to us,'' Chief Executive Officer Peter Margin said today on a conference call. "We might take a look".

The company would be a good fit with Goodman's dairy division.

Profit was also hit by factory closing costs, which took NPAT down to $88 million.

The share price recently hit an all-time low of NZ$1.78 due to general market volatility and fears from investors that commodity prices would hit profit hard. It listed 22 December 2005 for approx $2.10 and it has manged to claw its way back to $2.16 today on small volume.


Related Share Investor reading

Goodman Fielder a Hedge against an economic slump
Goodman Fielder pie gets bigger

Related Links

Goodman Fielder Financial Data

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The Business of Food: Encyclopedia of the Food and Drink Industries
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c Share Investor 2008

Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Helen shoots herself in both feet

"Democracy of course involves elections but it also involves freedom of media and freedom of speech and you're not going to be able to have a proper democratic process and elections in a years time unless those basic freedoms are upheld."

Helen Clark Feb 26, 2008, on ousting of journalist by Fiji Govt for critiquing them



Tom Scott cartoon
c Tom Scott 2008 No Comment



Now, Aunt Helen has either completely lost track of the attacks by her this week on NZ journalists over things they wrote which she disagreed with, and clearly the passing of the anti freedom of speech Electoral Finance Act last year slipped her mind like a 175km an hour car trip through the streets of an unimportant small New Zealand town.


Related Political Animal reading

Helen Clark's slipping Teflon leaves her naked
Labour's Teflon in Tatters
Electoral Finance Bill: The purpose is clear

c Political Animal 2008










Labour Party tax move on Airport attack on property rights

Stand back because I'm gunna blow!!!



http://www.fourcorners.co.nz/content/images/92/400x400normal/118761.jpg
Michael Cullen's retrospective tax changes over the AIA sale
effectively removes shareholders property rights


Additional reading on this story - direct links to article

Stuff
NBR
Radio New Zealand

Bloomberg
Southland Times



The arrogance, the stupidity, lack of moral and legal right and communist sort of garbage Michael Cullen is up to by retrospectively changing tax law to grab even more of New Zealand citizens and Auckland International Airport(AIA) shareholders money from them is not surprising, because we saw it in 2006 when the Labour government changed law in hindsight to make the theft of taxpayer money by them legal.

What is surprising is that Cullen and his mates around the cabinet table haven figured out or don't care about( I suspect they just couldn't give a hoot) the repercussions of their move: for business as a whole in the future, individuals and specifically the 50000 odd New Zealanders with shares in the airport-especially in an election year! Its just mind boggling.

We all know Cullen and his socialist mates hate private property rights and clearly business because here he is again stomping his little legislative pen and clipboard all over these rights.

That is, people have a property right in the shares they own in the airport and they have a right to sell them to whomever they wish, under the current tax laws which exist. Retrospectively changing the tax laws just because you can isn't a sensible way to oversee business because business needs to be able to function with surety of the current laws in which they trade under. They no longer have that in this respect.

By becoming involved in a transaction between its private citizens in this way the Labour Party have effectively wasted the time of all the parties involved. CPPIB , Auckland Airport and the shareholders involved.

Millions of dollars have also been flushed down the bog, because it costs to do these large deals. In this case it has cost shareholders like me money. Lots of it.

The interfering has wiped hundreds of millions from the capital value of the airport- down 13.5% or 38c to NZ$2.45- and therefore shareholders wealth and given notice to other overseas companies thinking about buying businesses in New Zealand to think again-if the government doesn't want it sold they will simply regulate in some way to stop it. It isn't your business anymore if you don't have the ultimate say about what happens to it.

Now investors know that Cullen and his minor party supporters have been against this sale from the beginning, almost 1 year ago. Winston "baubles" Peters has spoken about this many times and so has Cullen, Both early in the sale saga.

My question to Cullen is then, if you were against this sale from the beginning then why didn't you move to stop it at its inception? He certainly knew about the "tax issues" with the airport amalgamation but chose to sit on this harebrained half arsed intention till the very last minute.

He has also been aware that the announcement made today would have been consequential to the sharemarket value of AIA and has kept it secret from the NZX, CEO Mark Weldon's office and therefore the shareholders invested in AIA, and so should have informed the market alot sooner and alot less clumsier than he has.

I wonder if Weldon will be giving the minister a "please explain" letter? Doubt it.

The Canadian Pension Plan Investment board say they will "push on" with the deal and were aware of IRD approval when making their bid. I'm sure they didn't factor in todays turbulence though.

Finally, pissing off 50000 mums and dads when you have been nuked in the polls, your leader is melting down, and in an election year just isn't very bright.


Related Share Investor reading

NZ Herald: Airport Deal not so sweet after tax break blocked
NZX Press Release: AIA directors recommend shareholders sell
AIA profit stays grounded
Softening opposition to CPPIB bid for AIA
Directors of AIA bribe brokers not to sell
What is Auckland Airport worth to you?
Second bite at AIA by CPPIB might just fly
AIA new directors must focus on shareholders
Auckland Airport merger deal nosedives
The Canadians have landed
AIA incentive scheme must fly out the window
Government market manipulation over AIA/DAE deal
DAE move on AIA: Will it fly?


Disclosure: I own AIA shares

c Share Investor & Political Animal 2008