POLL: TV3 TNS Poll, 23 October 2008

The latest TV3 TNS political poll for October 23 still shows a clear lead for the National Party:

National is steady on 45.1 percent, and Labour actually drops to 37.4 percent. But the Greens are on 8.8 percent, and can be added to Labour's total.

New Zealand First has crept up to 3.5 percent, so Winston Peters cannot be ruled out making a return to Parliament. National leader John Key will be sweating - remember he has ruled working with Peters out.

The Maori Party is on 2.3 percent, but they are expected to win six, or perhaps even all seven Maori seats. ACT is on 1.7 percent, with just two MPs.

Peter Dunne's United Future is pretty unpopular, polling at 0.2 percent, as were the Progressives, on 0.1.

On this poll, Parliament would overhang to 123 seats. National would have 57 seats, ACT two, and United Future one – a total of 60 seats, and not enough to govern. In opposition Labour has 47 seats, the Greens 11 and the Progressives one – a total of 59, also not enough to govern.

TV3.co.nz

The TNS poll is one of 4 different political polls done in New Zealand and the most inaccurate of the 4.

Other polls have shown a much larger lead for national and have consistently done so for almost 2 years.

c Political Animal 2008

Leaving the nest

The latest stats for immigration of Kiwis to Oz is a record number, no surprise there, those that have money, prospects, ambition and are sick to death with government interference in their lives, to the extent now they want regulate shower times, are leaving. Sure it is the easy way out, why not stay and fight?

Well, it is increasingly getting difficult to stay because of the heavy burden that Labour have laid on them. 

What is clear is that the 47, 200 New Zealanders leaving will just be the tip of the iceberg should Labour get re-elected come Novemeber 8:

Figures published by Statistics New Zealand yesterday show about 47,200 people left New Zealand for Australia on a permanent or long-term basis during the year to September. About 13,200 came the other way.

That produced a net outflow of 33,900 people from NZ to Australia - the highest since records were first compiled in 1978.

The previous peak was 33,700 in January 1989.

NZ Herald

I personally will be leaving to go somewhere(I can hear a collective cheer from some) either Dallas or somewhere in Australia and will take my wife, money and hard-working taxpaying arse with me because the future would be bleak with another Marxist, socialist Labour Government.

We can look forward to more of the same bullshit. More welfare, more Government interfering, more mis-managing of the economy, more State directed dependence, crumbling government services and yes, shorter showers.

Part of me wants to see Labour returned to power so they can completely stuff up the possibility of being re-elected for a generation but I care too much about this country to see that happen.

It is going to be tough going for any government over the next 5 or six years because of the economic direness that Labour have managed us into but the coming tough times will have John Key in his element. Finance and economics is his specialty.

To have the Helen and Mikey show again is going to be fantastic for Air New Zealand and for those leaving on their planes to Australia, they will do well, because the best people are leaving and most will not come back.

The record numbers presently leaving will look small in proportion to those if a Labour government is re-elected.

Vote wisely this election.

c Political Animal 2008

Shareholders should look for companies with fiscal disaster plans

One thing to consider for shareholders with stocks in New Zealand listed companies is managements planning for and reaction to the current credit crises and its associated recession-the one we are currently experiencing is the work of Michael Cullen, New Zealands Finance Minister.

The current recession is going to get worse because of the downturn in the global economy and that is clearly going to affect business in this country and our business leaders, CEOs and directors are going to be soundly tested over the next couple of years as they try to manage their businesses through a recession that could be worse than the one in the 1970s if not managed properly and may very well last longer.

How well have our CEOs prepared for this?

The recession in New Zealand has been indicated by the economic numbers for more than 6 months, so as shareholders we should expect that prudent managers have put the necessary groundwork into a business plan that will get them through the hard years coming.

What plans should they have made?

Well, clearly cutting any unnecessary costs first would be a priority, but there are a number of other things that could and should still be done and you should do some thorough research into our NZX listed companies above and beyond the normal facts and figures one looks at. How management have spent their shareholder dollars in the past and whether they even have plans to get them through a recession are a couple of good points to start on.

Pay down that outstanding debt as much as possible and cut back dividends (I know, that is hard to say) to shareholders and use that to pay down debt in the future-interest rates are set to rise and the terms of lending and the ability to borrow will be tougher.

Cull company middle management as much as possible, little is done by middle management anyway so they wont be missed and the company team will be able to communicate better and more efficiently without them.

Forgo massive directors fee price hikes. Now isn't the time for a pay rise and the next reporting season in February isn't likely to make shareholders think you deserved a rise anyway.

On average, of the 18 odd companies that I have shares in, directors are asking for around 25% more than last year. They don't deserve that much based on the August reporting season, let alone next years results.

Contact Energy for example are asking for 100% more in directors fees! I know, its more over the top than a pregnant Dolly Parton.

Re-visit contracts with suppliers and negotiate lower prices for future contracts where possible. The current economic climate will mean that some companies will do better deals just to do business-hopefully not the one that you own shares in though.

Put off non-core related capital spending-those company Commodores will last another few years more and image isn't everything if it means there is no company left because you just bought or leased 50 spanking new Toyota Prius'.

Good management will be cost conscious even at the best of economic times and that is clearly the best preparation for the tough times.

Some Kiwi listed companies that have done this well are Mainfreight, Freightways, Michael Hill International and Hallenstein Glasson.

Companies that have done this poorly include Sky City Entertainment, Auckland International Airport ,The Warehouse and Contact Energy.

I am a little annoyed that along with the vast amount of shareholder correspondence that we have all received this reporting season, scant column inches have been devoted to mapping out a plan for individual companies and how they will deal with a long economic downturn.

Yes, it would be nice to know our companies have a plan.

Good fiscal management should be a matter of course for all companies, countries, finance Ministers and individuals because living beyond ones means can get one into trouble and planning before a downturn hits can be crucial for company survival.

But even as we continue our way through the recession continued financial prudence is needed, even by those who have already prepared.

For those who haven't?

Well, some are definitely going to fail and that is just the way it should be.

Disclosure: I own Mainfreight, The Warehouse, Michael Hill, Freightways, Sky City, Auckland Airport and Hallenstein shares.

c Share Investor 2008

Labour's taxpayer funded election supported by their Electoral Finance Act

In 2005 Labour stole over $800,000 of your money to print pledge cards to buy the election that year and when taken to task decided to change the law retrospectively to make what they did legal.

December 2007 the Electoral Finance Act was passed by Labour and its lap dogs in Parliament.

The law was sloppy, badly drafted, contradictory, anti free speech, impossible to use clearly and favoured the incumbent government in an election year, in terms of election funding and right to speak freely.

Less than 3 weeks before the 2008 election and it is 2005 all over again, except this time the passing of the EFA means that what was illegal in 2005 is now legal.

The contentious issue in 2008 is Labour's "information kit for the over-60s", a 50 page volume (it ain't a pamphlet as Labour call it) that has cost taxpayers more than $60,000 when you include postage and other costs and has gone out to 64,000 oldies.

My argument here isn't about the fact of whether or not it is electioneering at taxpayer expense because it clearly is, what is in question is the passing of the EFA by Labour to make election advertising at taxpayer expense such as this legitimate.

The "information kit" was designed by Labour to circumvent statutes in their law that would otherwise deem it advertising and thus make the cost of it come back on the Labour Party not the taxpayer.

It is also clear that the part of the EFA that pertains to Labours ability to circumvent its own law is the only part of the act that is clear otherwise the Electoral Commission wouldn't have given the document their approval-even though they have previously said that the EFA was hard to define, impossible to interpret clearly and highly contradictory.

A cynical ploy to get around previous laws and allow Labour to do what they did in 2005?

You bet ya.

Not only did it make spending by legitimate third parties like the Brethren illegal unless they went through the expense and electoral red tape of registering themselves as a third party, in effect it made it OK to steal taxpayer funds to run your election campaign but for a willing individual or group it becomes very difficult.

Once again mainstream media is found wanting when it comes to questioning the Labour Party over what is now a "mis-use" of taxpayer funds and not the illegal act that it was in 2005, to persuade over 60s voters to vote for labour but in 2005 a legitimate organisation, the Brethren and the National were run over the coals for doing the same thing, except it was done willingly with private money, not hard earned taxpayer dosh.

It seems my reasons for protesting twice over the last year have been vindicated and I can only shake my head in disbelief as we roll hopelessly toward a Mugabe like dictatorship.