Share Investor: December 2010

Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Brokers 2011 Stock Picks

You may have read my sharemarket picks for 2011 but for some light reading over the holidays lets take a look at some of the "professionals" picks from brokers and the like.

Please keep in mind that just like my picks there maybe some financial interest involved in picking them, there usually is, but in my case I disclose whether I have a holding in any of the stocks that I have picked. It is not clear from the NZ Herald article from where these picks originate as to whether the brokers have holdings or not. One would assume they did but they could of course just be theoretical selections.

Brokers Picks for 2011

Craigs Investment Partners
* Auckland Airport
* Contact Energy
* Fletcher Building
* Westpac Banking Corporation
* Henderson TR Pacific
Hamilton Hindin Greene
* Pyne Gould Corporation
* Ryman Healthcare
* Sky City Entertainment
* Tower Corporation
* Westpac Banking Corporation
First NZ Capital
* Contact Energy
* Kathmandu
* Opus International Consultants
* Nuplex
* NZX
Goldman Sachs & Partners
* Infratil
* Kathmandu
* Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
* Mainfreight
* Sky Television Network
McDouall Stuart
* Diligent
* Fletcher Building
* Infratil
* Michael Hill
* Ryman Healthcare
Forsyth Barr
* Delegat's
* Infratil
* Guinness Peat Group
* Sky City Entertainment Group
* Pumpkin Patch
Macquarie
* Sky Television Network
* New Zealand Oil and Gas
* Kathmandu
* Restaurant Brands
* Skellerup
THE PAST YEAR'S PICKS
12 months to December 10, 2010
* Subsequent to cut off point for the competition Pike River Coal has gone into receivership and been suspended
First NZ Capital
* Nuplex NPX 47.4%
* Tower TWR 11.6%
* Restaurant Brands RBD 82.2%
* The Warehouse WHS 1.1%
* Opus International OIC 25.3%
* Total 33.5%
ASB Securities
* Sky TV SKT 9.6%
* F&P Healthcare FPH -0.7%
* Pumpkin Patch PPL -12.0%
* Methven MVN 8.1%
* Auckland Airport AIA 16.1%
* Total 4.2%
Goldman Sachs JBWere
* Mainfreight MFT 40.6%
* Methven MVN 8.1%
* Infratil IFT 21.4%
* F&P Healthcare FPH -0.7%
* Nuplex NPX 47.4%
* Total 23.4%
Craigs Investment Partners
* Ryman Healthcare RYM 11.0%
* F&P Healthcare FPH -0.7%
* Freightways FRE 4.5%
* SkyCity SKC 1.7%
* Templeton Emerging Markets TEM 20.9%
* Total 7.5%
Hamilton Hindin Greene
* Fletcher Building FBU 5.0%
* NZ Oil & Gas NZO -44.1%
* Pyne Gould Corp PGC -12.7%
* Rakon RAK 2.6%
* Tower TWR 11.6%
* Total -7.5%
Forsyth Barr
* Auckland Airport AIA 16.1%
* Contact Energy CEN 12.3%
* PGG Wrightson PGW -20.0%
* GPG GPG -3.5%
* Delegat's DGL -19.8%
* Total -3.0%
McDouall Stuart
* NZ Oil & Gas NZO -44.1%
* Pike River Coal* PRC -77.5%
* Ryman Healthcare RYM 11.0%
* Michael Hill Jeweller MHI 36.5%
* Diligent DIL 93.5%
* Total 3.9%

Disclosure : I own MFT, FPH, RYM, PPL, FBU, WHS, SKC, MHI, AIA, shares in the Share Investor Portfolio.

Share Investor's Annual Stock Picks

Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2010 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2009 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2008 stock picks

Related Amazon Reading

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c Share Investor 2010 & 2011

Sunday, December 26, 2010

Share Investor Portfolio: Value at 27 December 2010

The Share Investor Portfolio had a good week last week and was up well on last weeks update. The portfolio was up by 1% or $2782.91. The main reason for the rise was a 5c gain in the biggest part of the portfolio, Sky City and another surge in the Mainfreight share price. There were small gains in most other stocks.

The total of unspent dividends in the bank from the 2010 earnings year is $16631.93 at close of reporting season for 2010. There are also approx $50000.00 in tax credits earned from

the portfolio since it began in late 2002.

The final portfolio update for 2010 will be coming this week.

Share Investor Portfolio as at 17:30:00, Friday 24 December, 2010 (NZDT)

Stock		Quantity	Cost price	Total cost	Market price	Market value	Change

AIA

2,000

$1.700

$3,400.00

$2.170

$4,340.00

$940.00

27.65%

AIA

2,000

$1.510

$3,020.00

$2.170

$4,340.00

$1,320.00

43.71%

AIA

803

$2.150

$1,726.45

$2.170

$1,742.51

$16.06

0.93%

AIA

445

$0.000

$0.00

$2.170

$965.65

AIA

$1.650

$105.60

$2.170

$138.88

$33.28

31.52%

ASBPB

2,946

$0.000

$0.00

$0.722

$2,127.01

ASBPB

7,054

$1.000

$7,054.00

$0.722

$5,092.99

$1,961.01

27.80%

BGR

438

$0.000

$0.00

$1.400

$613.20

BGR

2,562

$0.990

$2,536.38

$1.400

$3,586.80

$1,050.42

41.41%

FBU

266

$0.000

$0.00

$7.750

$2,061.50

FBU

848

$9.750

$8,268.00

$7.750

$6,572.00

$1,696.00

20.51%

FPH

3,000

$2.350

$7,050.00

$3.160

$9,480.00

$2,430.00

34.47%

FPH

541

$0.000

$0.00

$3.160

$1,709.56

FPH

1,459

$3.720

$5,427.48

$3.160

$4,610.44

$817.04

15.05%

FRE

1,882

$0.000

$0.00

$3.120

$5,871.84

FRE

6,749

$3.630

$24,498.87

$3.120

$21,056.88

$3,441.99

14.05%

GFF

541

$0.000

$0.00

$1.850

$1,000.85

GFF

1,459

$2.330

$3,399.47

$1.850

$2,699.15

$700.32

20.60%

HLG

244

$0.000

$0.00

$4.080

$995.52

HLG

756

$2.530

$1,912.68

$4.080

$3,084.48

$1,171.80

61.26%

KIP

190

$0.000

$0.00

$0.990

$188.10

KIP

810

$1.480

$1,198.80

$0.990

$801.90

$396.90

33.11%

MFT

1,000

$7.960

$7,960.00

$7.920

$7,920.00

$40.00

0.50%

MFT

1,838

$8.000

$14,704.00

$7.920

$14,556.96

$147.04

1.00%

MFT

657

$0.000

$0.00

$7.920

$5,203.44

MFT

1,505

$4.200

$6,321.00

$7.920

$11,919.60

$5,598.60

88.57%

MHI

1,646

$0.860

$1,415.56

$0.870

$1,432.02

$16.46

1.16%

MHI

7,000

$0.630

$4,410.00

$0.870

$6,090.00

$1,680.00

38.10%

MHI

718

$0.000

$0.00

$0.870

$624.66

MHI

636

$1.050

$667.80

$0.870

$553.32

$114.48

17.14%

PPG

$0.000

$0.00

$0.290

$8.99

PPG

1,500

$0.440

$660.00

$0.290

$435.00

$225.00

34.09%

PPG

1,004

$0.800

$803.20

$0.290

$291.16

$512.04

63.75%

PPL

1,000

$3.090

$3,090.00

$1.640

$1,640.00

$1,450.00

46.93%

PPL

1,000

$2.870

$2,870.00

$1.640

$1,640.00

$1,230.00

42.86%

PPL

939

$4.200

$3,943.80

$1.640

$1,539.96

$2,403.84

60.95%

PPL

877

$0.000

$0.00

$1.640

$1,438.28

PPL

1,184

$1.530

$1,811.52

$1.640

$1,941.76

$130.24

7.19%

RYM

459

$0.000

$0.00

$2.290

$1,051.11

RYM

4,586

$1.970

$9,034.42

$2.290

$10,501.94

$1,467.52

16.24%

SKC

5,750

$7.430

$42,722.50

$3.370

$19,377.50

$23,345.00

54.64%

SKC

1,000

$7.600

$7,600.00

$3.370

$3,370.00

$4,230.00

55.66%

SKC

2,750

$7.700

$21,175.00

$3.370

$9,267.50

$11,907.50

56.23%

SKC

1,431

$8.750

$12,521.25

$3.370

$4,822.47

$7,698.78

61.49%

SKC

25,085

$0.000

$0.00

$3.370

$84,536.45

SKC

899

$4.720

$4,243.28

$3.370

$3,029.63

$1,213.65

28.60%

STU

$0.000

$0.00

$2.120

$165.36

STU

322

$4.740

$1,526.28

$2.120

$682.64

$843.64

55.27%

WHS

4,500

$3.730

$16,785.00

$3.540

$15,930.00

$855.00

5.09%

WHS

6,979

$6.000

$41,874.00

$3.540

$24,705.66

$17,168.34

41.00%

WHS

2,880

$0.000

$0.00

$3.540

$10,195.20

WHS

641

$3.710

$2,378.11

$3.540

$2,269.14

$108.97

4.58%

18.73%

	Total cost	Market value	Change
	$278,114.45	$330,219.01	$52,104.56

The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition) by Benjamin Graham
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c Share Investor 2010 & 2011

Thursday, December 23, 2010

Stock of the Week: Mainfreight Ltd

Mainfreight Ltd [MFT.NZX] has had a simply outstanding run in its share price over 2010 (see YTD chart above) and especially in the last month or so. The stock started 2010 at just over $5.55 and closed trading yesterday at $7.96. The last month has seen the stock rise from $7.25. (see one month chart below)It has come off a low of $3.25 in early 2009.

The stock is now back at levels that it was trading in early 2007 (see five year chart below) and few NZX stocks have managed to do that pre the October 2008 stockmarket crash.

I bought my initial shareholding at $7.96 and $8 4 years ago (clearly picked the wrong time there) and my most recent addition in 2009 for $4.20. To me it looks like the stock price has run away with itself.

The company has largely recovered from the recession but we will have to see a couple of years of sustained growth before the expectations of the market match the share price.

Beware before you buy !

I see good long-term value based on the current share price, otherwise I wouldn't have bought it at its peak 3 - 4 years ago (there was also a very big dividend involved in my buying that stock as well) but you could well get it cheaper at some stage during 2011 as the market realises it might well have overreacted.

Quality companies like this though always rise to the top.

Disc I own MFT shares in the Share Investor Portfolio

Stock of the Week Series

Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd
Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd
Reprise 5: Contact Energy Ltd
Reprise 4: Contact Energy Ltd
Reprise 3: Contact Energy Ltd
Delegats Group Ltd
Reprise 2 : Contact Energy Ltd
Reprise: Contact Energy Ltd
Restaurant Brands
NZ Refining
Ryman Healthcare
Mainfreight Ltd
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Xero Ltd
Auckland International Airport
Sky City Entertainment Group
Burger Fuel Worldwide
Michael Hill International
Contact Energy Ltd
The Warehouse Group
Fisher & Paykel Appliances
Reprise: NZ Refining Ltd

Mainfreight @ Share Investor

Read the MFT 2011 FY Presentation

Is Mainfreight Worth 20 Bucks Plus a Share?
Share Price Alert: Mainfreight Ltd 2
Mainfreight's European Acquisition a Good Move
Share Price Alert: Mainfreight Ltd
Investing in the Stockmarket: Timing your Purchase
Stock of the Week: Mainfreight Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd: 2011 1st quarter Profit Analysis
VIDEO: Don Braid with Paul Homes on the Economy
Mainfreight Ltd: Full Year 2010 Profit Analysis
Long Term View: Mainfreight Ltd
Share Investor Interview: Mainfreight's MD Don Braid
Stock of the Week: Mainfreight Ltd
Questions to Mainfreight's MD Don Braid
I'm Buying: Mainfreight Management delivers the goods
Mainfreight Annual Report Packs a Punch
Analysis - Mainfreight Ltd: FY Profit to 31/03/09
Mainfreight VS KiwiRail: The Sequel
Long VS Short: Mainfreight Ltd
Why did you buy that stock? [Mainfreight Ltd]
Mainfreight 2008 Annual report worth reading
KiwiRail will cost Mainfreight
Mainfreight keeps on truckin
A rare breed
Share Investor's 2008 stock picks

Discuss MFT @ Share Investor Forum
Download Mainfreight Company Reports

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c Share Investor 2010

Monday, December 20, 2010

Michael Hill International: "Takeover" Undervalues the Company

The "takeover offer" being made to all shareholders in Micheal Hill International Ltd [MHI.NZX]by the Michael Hill Family Holding Company Durante Holdings Pty Limited (Durante), the holding company for the 47.63 per cent of the total shares in MHI owned by interests associated with Mr Michael Hill, is one that has appeared to get around the takeovers code by offering to buy 5% of current MHI shareholders in the company an offer to buy their shares at 90c each.

Typically any shareholding above 50% automatically kicks off what should be a full takeover for the target company but MHI seems to have found a loophole after abandoning an initial plan back in September after floating the idea initially in August.

Of course any shareholding above 50% gives the owner complete control of the company.

I labelled this a Claytons takeover in August and still consider this a blatant disregard for shareholder rights.

I will not be selling any of my shares for the above reasons and because the offer of 90c per share for effectively full control of the company is not enough premium for full control and undervalues the company and its long term potential.

I possibily risk a potential interview with Michael that I have been trying to organize for 2011 (I have his cell phone number but he doesn't always return his calls) by speaking out like this but I care about shareholders before the business owners.

If you are thinking of selling, please don't. Apart from the shenanigans associated with this power play the company is very well managed and has a great long term future and you would be undervaluing your investment in the company if you sold so cheaply.

Disc I own MHI shares in the Share Investor Portfolio

MHI Takeover

Full list of Related Documents

Michael Hill International @ Share Investor

Buy Toughen Up: What I've Learned About Surviving Tough Times

Toughen Up - Fishpond.co.nz

c Share Investor 2010