Share Investor: September 2017

Wednesday, September 27, 2017

A2 Milk Corporation

A2 Milk Corporation Ltd [ATM.NZX] chart looks like a plane is taking off, as it does it appears to be dropping left-lets over China because that is where the buying and selling of this stock is coming from.

There has been $22 million passed today, so far.

A chap asked yesterday via this website what I thought of this stock now it was over 6 bucks and heading over to over 7.

I said something like it was a stock based on true value but like Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd [FPH.NZX] and Mainfreight Ltd [MFT.NZ] amongst other stocks, it was getting way beyond its value.

It has a PE ratio of over 50, more than both MFT and FPH and 12.49c in earnings per share.

To be fair it will continue to go up with earnings approaching 20 cents per share next year but which ever way you look at it it is overvalued.

I also think I said that this stock looks like it is on the (Chinese) fast track to the stratosphere so would be surprised if it put on 2 bucks (conservatively) before xmas.

I politely refused to utter anything material on the stock, except to say I had been watching things from late last year.

Good luck.

c Share Investor 2017

Monday, September 25, 2017

Sky City: Even Cheaper Now

c Share Investor 2017

c Share Investor 2017

Wednesday, September 20, 2017

Westpac: I'm Thinking of Returning

Rocked up to the local Westpac at Albany Mall today after clicking on the make your credit balance $2500 more - that was OK.

In the meantime saw Wilson at the bank & found out I have an interest free period left on my Visa till July next year.

When I had issues with the card in July I contacted the bank and they sorted out the problem and it seems they started the 12 months again from July. So I don't have to pay anything off (except the minimum balance.)

So at the same time I told Wilson about this I decided to open a bank account. This was the first time I have had an acc with Westpac in 30 years (apart from my Credit Card).

I want to see how they go and if they are good (I'm unhappy with ASB who I been with for more than 20 years) Im going to change some or all of my banking.

How do you folks out there deal with this "problem"?

More Banking Madness @ Shareinvestor

ASB Bank: Customer "Service"

Bryce the Banker: The Final Insult
Banks not participating in Recession
Bank Guarantees: Time for banks to return the favour
The Return of Bryce
Banking Madness!

Discuss this topic @ Share Investor Forum

c Share Investor 2017

Tuesday, September 19, 2017

New Zealand Refining: CEO Should Walk

New Zealand Refining Ltd [NZR.NZX] The scenario set out below is bullshit.

GENERAL: NZR: Statement from the Chief Executive, Sjoerd Post

"While Refining NZ will not generally respond to media commentary, in the
current circumstances regarding issues with the Refinery to Auckland
pipeline, and recent media commentary concerning when Refining NZ first
notified those issues to the market, Refining NZ considers it appropriate to
do so. For complete clarity, there was no delay in disclosing information to
the market or to other stakeholders.

The company announced to the market as soon as it understood that the
pipeline would not be operational for more than a few days. Initially
Refining NZ thought that the leak could be fixed within 2 days by installing
a clamp on the damaged section of the pipe. If that had been the case the
issue would have been within the ambit of operational matters and of no
concern to our customers and the wider public. It only became apparent over
the weekend that the damage to the pipeline would take longer to remedy - and
accordingly we announced this to the market before it opened on Monday, 18
September.

All going to plan, we expect to deliver jet fuel via the pipeline into Wiri
between midday Sunday and midday Tuesday. From that point Refining NZ expects
it will take another 30 hours for the jet fuel to settle, for recertification
to be obtained, and to transport to Auckland international airport".

Sjoerd Post
Chief Executive

Bullshit because once the initial thing happened last Thursday and there was a facebook post about it there was a possibility that there could be a major outage. Guess what there is a major outage. That should have been disclosed on Thurs to the market NOT yesterday before markets opened.

The ultimate person responsible for this is the Chief Ex Sjoerd Post.

He needs to walk.

The NZX also needs to come down on NZR like a tonne of bricks but it won't.

I don't know if you the reader know it but I have traded NZR quite a few times over the years. If I knew Sjoerd Post was the man he has turned out to be I wouldn't have bothered with it. I will also cease trading of this share until it can be proven to me that management know what they are doing.

Because I believe it goes deeper than the Chief Ex.

Little wonder why the share price has hardly even moved.

NZR @ Share Investor

Share Price Alert: New Zealand Refining Ltd 2
Share Price Alert: NZ Refining Ltd
Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks
Stock of the Week - Reprise: NZ Refining Ltd
Chart of the Week: New Zealand Refining Ltd
Stock of the Week: NZ Refining Ltd

Discuss NZR @ Share Investor Forum
Download NZR Company Reports

c Share Investor 2017

Monday, September 11, 2017

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd: Where's it Been Over the Last Month & Why

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd [FPH.NZX] is taking a trajectory that is firmly north over the last week or two.

This is based on off shore buying - I only found this out on Fri 8th - this is because of significant buying based on this investor briefing.

Apparently this is solely responsible for the uplift. There is not a lot on offer, so up she goes.

Have a look below on briefing from Yahoo daily share-trading.

The rise is actually based on increased trading, $100 plus million over the last week and counting.

So when I surmised a few posts back that it was institutional trading I was only partly right.

Because what you see is a rise in share price down to one thing.

Its US mums and dads buying the shares based on what their brokers are hearing at the investor briefings.

A knucklehead thing for investors to do but they are buying FPH shares nonetheless.

Question is when will the yanks be finished?

Date	Open	High	Low	Close*	Adj. close**	Volume
08 Sep 2017	12.45	12.62	12.45	12.61	12.61	1,739,308
07 Sep 2017	12.20	12.51	12.20	12.48	12.48	2,270,372
06 Sep 2017	12.07	12.24	12.05	12.24	12.24	1,167,208
05 Sep 2017	12.08	12.17	12.00	12.13	12.13	778,908
04 Sep 2017	11.99	12.09	11.95	12.08	12.08	590,056
01 Sep 2017	11.80	12.13	11.80	11.95	11.95	1,695,701
31 Aug 2017	11.63	11.77	11.53	11.77	11.77	837,466
30 Aug 2017	11.43	11.65	11.42	11.59	11.59	374,554
29 Aug 2017	11.40	11.50	11.35	11.46	11.46	545,875
28 Aug 2017	11.51	11.51	11.43	11.48	11.48	364,719
25 Aug 2017	11.66	11.66	11.50	11.55	11.55	526,038
24 Aug 2017	11.64	11.69	11.47	11.68	11.68	303,532
23 Aug 2017	11.59	11.65	11.50	11.65	11.65	326,565
22 Aug 2017	11.50	11.63	11.47	11.61	11.61	464,467
21 Aug 2017	11.40	11.59	11.40	11.58	11.58	302,922
18 Aug 2017	11.43	11.50	11.38	11.45	11.45	427,367
17 Aug 2017	11.28	11.52	11.24	11.47	11.47	532,512
16 Aug 2017	11.25	11.36	11.21	11.32	11.32	415,715
15 Aug 2017	11.20	11.35	11.20	11.28	11.28	376,741
14 Aug 2017	11.09	11.23	11.06	11.20	11.20	436,247
11 Aug 2017	11.25	11.25	11.10	11.10	11.10	784,237
10 Aug 2017	11.38	11.55	11.38	11.44	11.44	779,264
09 Aug 2017	11.39	11.44	11.36	11.39	11.39	1,016,623

c Share Investor 2017

Wednesday, September 6, 2017

When Labour Gets In

Jacinda Ardern Becomes Labour’s Sixth Leader in Nine Years

The question is what do investors do in the face of impending doom when the Labour Party stumbles across the line to win the 2017 election.

Well they've started it already.

They have stopped buying Auckland International Airport Ltd [AIA.NZX] its moving backwards with a DIV coming,

Auckland Airport growth is bound to stall under a Labour Govt.

Labour's stated aim is to at least halve immigration and I think it will go completely the other way within 2 years - people will not want to stay.

The other thing Labour is going to introduce, a $25 dollar new tax for travelers to this country is going to have a major impact on tourists.

This will clearly impact further on Auckland Airport, it clearly has already.

Uncertainty certainly plays a part in it, there's no doubt about that but reality plays a big part as well and Labour's focus of their extra spending is on the unproductive parts of the economy. That has been the way of the Labour Govt's from year one.

But you don't get economic growth from putting taxpayer money into things like "higher wages for everyone" it is simply a blight on the taxpayer and business as a whole.

You've got to be focused on what you as an individual can bring to the table rather than Labour's view that whats on the table is mine and that extending the table through extra taxes and more Govt borrowing is the way to go.

Its not.

You've got to wonder about those companies that have got a high component of transport costs, Like Freightways and Fletcher Building.

These companies have come off recent highs and they are nervous about what will happen when Labour gets into power.

Every company on the NZX is effected by the probable change of Govt.

I'm not worried about my investments. I will take the time to look at each company in the Share Investor Portfolio and buy more when they get cheap enough.

That's the thing with long-term investing in shares and changes in Govt. You make your serious money in times of gloom and (like we will be heading to under a Labour Govt) and make even more in times of boom (like we are just coming off now - under National).

Either way I'm not disturbed.

AIA @ Share Investor

Auckland Airport: Look Before You Leap
Auckland Airport: Its a Buy
AIA: To Buy Now Or Not To ?
Share Investor Q & A: Auckland Airport's Simon Moutter

Freightways @ Share Investor

Share Investor's Total Returns: Freightways Ltd
Share Price Alert: Freightways Ltd 3
Share Price Alert: Freightways Ltd 2

Fletcher Building @ Share Investor

Share Price Alert: Fletcher Building Ltd 4
Share Price Alert: Fletcher Building Ltd 3
Share Price Alert: Fletcher Building Ltd 2

c Share Investor 2017

Monday, September 4, 2017

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare: Where is it Going?

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd [FPH.NZX] is starting to look a wee bit expensive.

Granted it does have the potential to be the largest stock on the index if it keeps going - its about 3 or 4th at present - but it will be headed for a breakdown if it disappoints this November.

Like I said in a previous post the market seems to have largely discounted legal problems so the reason for the recent share price increase seems to be put down to one or two major reasons.

The first is institutional buying. There appeared to be a sizable chunk transacted last Fri Sept 1. Almost 1 million shares. Again a sizable chunk of well over 2m shares traded in June by Northcape Capital to take their stake in FPH to 5.1%.

The second is insiders - management, directors etc - taking up stakes or taking up options or indeed disposing of same.

There is a lot of activity surrounding share trades.

There appears that a 5% rise over the last 7 days is something this share hasn't seen especially given the record high share price.

It seems the momentum is towards the upside at least for the time being - see the explanation for this in paragraph 2.

I truly don't know where we are heading with this stock, it is way too pricey and I wouldn't be buying at current prices.

All I can think is that insiders are getting together to get in a good position that a possible buy could be on the cards.

They would have to offer me north of 50 bucks a share to get rid of this one right now and it would get more expensive as time wore on.

I don't really want to sell.

c Share Investor 2017