Share Investor: July 2009

Friday, July 31, 2009

Stock of the Week: Metlifecare Ltd

Metlifecare Ltd [MET.NZ] has been on my watchlist for yonks. I already own Ryman Healthcare Ltd [RYM.NZ] I love this sector and it is because of its very high historical revenue and profit growth and its similar future protects as the number of older people (especially those greedy economy sucking baby boomers) increases in very large numbers

Metlifecare has been somewhat of a poor cousin to Ryman over the last few years when it comes to its profit. It has had a couple of big asset writedowns over the last 2 years and that has lead to a punishing in its stock price.

A great opportunity.

That is why it makes my Stock of the Week this week (better late than never, I know it is the end of the week) that, and it will bounce back into profit when property prices recover.

The stock has hit a 52 week low of NZ$1.38 and a high of $4.60 but that is well off its all time high of nearly 9 bucks reached not that long ago (see chart above) so you can see the potential for a good long term and medium term gain even if today's closing share price is $2.06.

Buy on weakness, there should be some more for this stock come its profit reporting in November.

Good luck!

Related Share Investor reading

Stocks on My Watchlist: Metlifecare Ltd
Why did you buy that stock? [Ryman Healthcare]
Time for retirement?

Discuss Metlifecare @ Share Investor Forum

Stock of the Week Series

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd
Xero Ltd
Auckland International Airport
Sky City Entertainment Group
Burger Fuel Worldwide
Michael Hill International
Contact Energy Ltd
The Warehouse Group
Fisher & Paykel Appliances

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c Share Investor 2009

Thursday, July 30, 2009

Market announcement delay abandonment should be just the start in NZX restructure

Further to my piece on insider trading of Sky City Entertainment Group [SKC.NZ] shares last week and a convenient waiver given by the NZX for Contact Energy Ltd's [CEN.NZ] David Baldwin to get rewarded for stuffing up, it appears that the NZX is relenting to pressure from the bearded one, Bruce Sheppard from the NZ Shareholders Association, to get market announcements, previously delayed to the poor and downtrodden like you and me, now available.

Those market participants who have had NZX terminals in their offices have been using this information to trade before it is available to us, of course this is highly illegal but as Bruce has pointed out, nobody has been prosecuted by NZX, the market regulator, let alone a case of insider trading taken before.

This delay has always confused me because the advantages this gives users of this information means millions of dollars in their pockets - am I a naive idiot?

It is one of those hangovers from a regulated market that has been held onto with great gusto but other relics of a bygone age still give the advantages to the big boys.

The granting of waivers to break NZX rules, lack of clear separation of the day to day running of the New Zealand Stockmarket and its regulation and the reluctance to piss off mates by prosecuting clear breaches of insider trading rules and other market hanky panky by brokers and insiders really needs to be scrutinized closely by Government stockmarket regulators the Securities Commission because the NZX ain't going to do it.

Sadly this is unlikely to happen in any sort of expedient manner, so it is up to people like you, me and stockmarket advocates like Bruce Sheppard to keep the pressure on Mark Weldon and his mates down there in Wellington.

Of course the thing that would keep the NZX a little more honest would be a little healthy competition, and as I pointed out some ten or so years ago, why couldn't a website be set up for stockmarket investors to directly buy and sell shares without a middleman getting involved?

I'm sure others with the tech savviness that I don't have would be able to pull off such a thing.

A great little opportunity for someone to have a go.

Recent Share Investor Reading

List of Bruce Sheppard's top NZX listed company debt worries (UPDATE 7)

This update adds GFF, SKT & SKC to the List

Further to rumblings made by Bruce Sheppard on behalf of the New Zealand Shareholder's Association in May that in his opinion, roughly 20 listed companies in New Zealand were breaching banking covenants and after writing to these companies 2 so far have replied to Bruce. He is naming names as each company replies to him.

1. Fisher & Paykel Appliances [FPA.NZ]

2. Nuplex [NPX.NZ]

3. Tourism Holdings [THL.NZ] - Read THL's letter to Bruce
4. Vector Ltd [VCT.NZ] - Read VCT's letter to Bruce

5. Freightways Ltd [FRE.NZ] - Read Bruce's letter to FRE & the reply
6. Skellerup Holdings [SKL.NZ] - Read Bruce's letter to SKL & the reply

7. Comvita Ltd [CVT.NZ] - Read Bruce's letter to CVT & the reply

8. Ebos Ltd [EBO.NZ] - Read Bruce's letter to EBO & the reply

9. Abano Healthcare Group [ABA.NZ] Read Bruce's letter to ABA & the reply

10. Metlifecare Ltd [MET.NZ] Read Bruce's letter to MET & the reply

11. Restaurant Brands Ltd [RBD.NZ] Read Bruce's letter to RBD & the reply

12. Kirkcaldie & Stains [KRK.NZ] Read Bruce's letter to KRK & the reply

13. Sky Network TV [SKT.NZ] Read Bruce's letter to SKT *

14. Sky City Entertainment Group [SKC.NZ] Read Bruce's letter to SKC & the reply

15. Goodman Fielder [GFF.NZ] Read Bruce's letter to GFF & the reply *

I will post the rest here as and when the other 5 odd companies reply to Brucie.

The laggers need to get a wriggle on, otherwise it wont look good for them.

Bruce is going to list those that didn't reply to him next week.

Disc I own FRE, SKC & GFF shares in the Share Investor Portfolio

Related Links

NZ Shareholders Association

Recent Share Investor Reading

Discuss this topic @ Share Investor Forum

c Share Investor 2009

2009 NBR Rich List

NBR have their rich list out today. The Herald has a preview. Graeme Hart is once again at the top of the heap, while the Fays, Richwhites, and Todds, as usual, fill in the top ten.

Still mostly old money on the list but great to see the self made man Hart continue to pull in the bucks.

Great to see acknowledgment, without the jealous sneering, of those who have worked hard and done well to enable themselves to get on such a list.

Graeme Hart $2.75b
Todd family $2.6b
Eamon Cleary $2.1b
Christopher and Richard Chandler $2.0b each
Goodman family $1.8b
Stephen Jennings $1.0b
Erceg family $700m
Douglas Myers $700m
Sir Michael Fay $660m
David Richwhite $660m

NBR @ Share Investor

2010 NBR Rich List
2009 NBR Rich List
2008 NBR Rich List
NBR Headlines

From Fishpond.co.nz

Buy Every Bastard Says No - The 42 Below Story, by Geoff Ross & Justine Troy & more @ Fishpond.co.nz

c Share Investor 2009

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

Help me, I am making good short term money, it must be time to sell ?

The stockmarket has been like an 18 year old on viagra over the last few weeks, but it can present a dilemna over whether to sell on your short term gains or hold for the bigger gains to follow over the years. Lets see if this piece can help you out.

I made some share purchases last Wednesday, The Warehouse Group [WHS.NZ] and Mainfreight Ltd [MFT.NZ] and two on July 6, Auckland International Airport [AIA.NZ] and Michael Hill International [MHI.NZ]

I also participated in 3 capital raisings (1 2 3) covering off Sky City Entertainment Group[SKC.NZ], Freightways Ltd [FRE.NZ] and Fletcher Building [FBU.NZ] which gave me extra shares mid June to add to the Share Investor Portfolio.

I have done particularly well with short term gains in all of these purchases as the local sharemarket has had a lazarous type recovery over the last few weeks.

At close of market today here have been my returns for these purchases over the last 4-6 weeks.

1. The Warehouse Group $1600.00 - 6.2%

2. Mainfreight Ltd $487.50 - 6.1%

3. Auckland Airport $440.00 - 14%

4. Sky City $1200.00 - 24%

5. Freightways $310.32 - 29%

6. Fletcher Building $225.66 - 37%

7. Michael Hill $350.00 - 8.5%

By any stretch of the imagination a $4613.48 or a 17.82 % average return for the last 6 weeks is pretty good, especially the $2000 plus return in the last week for my two recent purchases.

So why don't I sell?

Well, I think I can make more in the long term by simply holding good companies and collecting the dividends and tax credits along the way. One comment to a recent post reckons my buy and hold strategy is flawed and he can make more money getting in and out of shares quickly.

That maybe right, in fact I may have done it once or twice myself in my investing career, but if you do it intentionally you open yourself up to getting your trading profits taxed and I don't want to enter that level of investing, not just now anyway.

As you will see in my 10 editions of the Long VS Short series, the long term wins in the return stakes and it might also be worth noting that the resurgence of the market has also increased the value of the long-term Share Investor Portfolio by more than $40000.00 in less than a month.

But anything can happen when Mr Market has his crazy mood swings and the portfolio could lose all that in the next few weeks or few days for that matter.

Long vs Short Series

Fletcher Building Ltd
Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Michael Hill International
Auckland International Airport
Freightways Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Mainfreight Ltd
The Warehouse Group
Sky City Entertainment

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c Share Investor 2009

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Long VS Short: Fletcher Building Ltd

In this tenth installment of the Long vs Short series I am once again going to take look at the chart comparisons for a stock from the Share Investor Portfolio and compare the 10 year return (above chart) to the turmoil of the last year with a 1 year return chart (large chart at bottom of post).

In this series I want to show the merits of investing, using charts, for the long-term vs short term gains or losses. I will use the longest available data to me for the long-term view (10 years )and will make a comparison against the NZX50.

In this installment of Long vs Short I will look at Fletcher Building Ltd [FBU.NZ].

I currently hold 1114 Fletcher Building shares in the Share Investor Portfolio, the bulk of which I have owned since November 2006. (see small chart below for detail)

The company has been a very good performer with great returns and is still going OK under current tough economic conditions.

Symbol	Price	Value	Earned
FBU.NZ	$7.290	$8087.64	$-615.69

You own 1114 [FBU.NZ] shares purchased at $7.81 [$8703.33]

In my 2.5 years of owning this share my return has been a loss of just over 7 %. This includes dividends and tax credits.(see small chart above)

If I had bought this share just a year ago (see large chart at bottom) my return would have been a 34% loss, with a loss of 50% as recent as March 2009.

Now for the real point of this comparison, lets look at the return for Fletcher Building shareholders who have held the stock for 10 years. (see large chart above)

From a high of a 450% return at the end of 2007, the 10 year return as of writing is still around 200%. All those dividends plus tax credits and time has given the long termers another win.

This series has yet to return a positive for short term investors.

Disc I own a small FBU holding in the Share Investor Portfolio

Fletcher Building @ Share Investor

Fletcher Building's Commercial arm keeps their head above the tunnel
Sweetheart deal for Fletcher Building's Friends
Fletcher House built on hard times
Fletcher Building down tools in the short term
Why did you buy that stock? [Fletcher Building Ltd]
A solid foundation for the future
Fletcher Bu ilding raises profit through canny management
Fletcher's got game

Discuss this Stock @ Share Investor Forum

Long vs Short Series

Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Michael Hill International
Auckland International Airport
Freightways Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Mainfreight Ltd
The Warehouse Group
Sky City Entertainment

c Share Investor 2009

Friday, July 24, 2009

Beam me up Davy

I think Contact Energy directors have been watching too much moon landing coverage over the last week because its seems that a number of them may have disappeared up their own planet of Uranus.

Clearly some live in a parallel universe when they can cost their company nearly 40000 customers in just under a year by making a public exhibition of himself by raising electricity prices, granting directors big bonuses and having an expensive boozy lunch on the company in October last year and then expected to be rewarded for it.

David Baldwin, managing director and CEO of Contact Energy Ltd [CEN.NZ] yesterday applied for a waiver from the NZSX to get "financial assistance", an interest free loan from Contact Energy shareholders, so he can participate in the company's Long Term Incentive plan (LTI).

Boy those Contact shareholders sure are generous!

Fair enough, you deserve the free shares for doing a good job, but Baldwin has cost the company 10s of millions in lost revenue over the last year and since he has become the MD this year he becomes ineligible to participate but has decided in his infinite wisdom that he will apply to his mates at the NZX to waive this rule that allows him to participate.

And guess what, the waiver was granted just 24 hrs latter.

Beam me up Scotty, I wanna be where Dave lives, 'cause it don't work that way down here on earth.

Recent Share Investor Reading

Discuss Contact Energy @ Share Investor Forum

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c Share Investor 2009

Auckland Airport Sale: Ready to Fly

This blog was visited by a large number of Googlers yesterday. They were searching for Auckland International Airport [AIA] information.

Those searches were principally related to questions about the possibility of its sale, so I thought I would write something opinionated on just that subject.

This interest would have been sparked by the National Government's relaxing of rules and legislation surrounding the overseas ownership and purchase of New Zealand assets announced by them today.

I wrote back in February that we were likely to see just this very scenario occur:

With the new National Government in place and the current relaxing of the rules around the RMA, the major planning law that has stopped economic development of New Zealand, we could expect to see developments in other areas of business in regards to relaxing laws and legislation to allow business to flow quicker and therefore more efficiently and more profitably.

Small parts of overseas investment criteria have been relaxed immediately but there will be a review of the Overseas Investment Act with a view to relax current complications and confusion.

The 3 main points of the act that will be looked at latter in the year that are pertinent to any possible bid for Auckland Airport are:

1. the thresholds determining which land and business investments are screened are set at the right level -- so only genuinely sensitive assets are captured.

2. Providing greater certainty for investors, by removing the ability to substantially change overseas investment rules during applications.

3. Simplifying the screening of investments in sensitive land, while ensuring that overseas investors are subject to a higher standard than domestic investors.

The airport sale was stymied by the previous Labour Administration by a law that was expressly passed for the AIA bid by DAE and the Canadian Teacher's Pension fund as well as confusion brought by the 3 parts of the act noted above.

With an overhaul of this act, relaxation of other overseas investment rules and a business friendly shake-up of Auckland Council's that hold airport shares, Auckland Airport will soon be in play.

Disclosure I own AIA shares in the Share Investor Portfolio

Auckland International Airport @ Share Investor Blog

Stock of the Week: Auckland International Airport
Is another Auckland Airport Bid likely?
Long VS Short: Auckland International Airport
Auckland Airport needs main focus on its core business
Marketwatch - Auckland International Airport
Why did you buy that stock: Auckland International Airport
Cullen's move on Auckland Airport has far reaching effects
Cullen's move on AIA tax plan Anti-Business
AIA profit stays grounded
Softening opposition to CPPIB bid for AIA
Directors of AIA bribe brokers not to sell
What is Auckland Airport worth to you?
Second bite at AIA by CPPIB might just fly
AIA new directors must focus on shareholders
Auckland Airport merger deal nosedives
The Canadians have landed
AIA incentive scheme must fly out the window
Government market manipulation over AIA/DAE deal
DAE move on AIA: Will it fly?

Discuss this stock @ Share Investor Forum

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c Share Investor 2009

Thursday, July 23, 2009

Aren't those banks just utter Bastards

After getting some shtick recently from my bank, the ASB Albany branch, who have decided, after much arguing by my good self, that they will waive early repayment fees for a loan I made a few years back but didn't agree to any fee charged when initially taking out that loan, I came across a story today in the Nelson Mail that just made my day:

Defiant Mapua artist Roger Griffiths today made a stand against Westpac by withdrawing his $190,000 savings in $20 notes.

The bank provided a red-and-black carry bag to take away the cash after meticulously counting it in front of Mr Griffiths at its Nelson branch.

Mr Griffiths, a loyal Westpac customer for 25 years, decided to withdraw his money after the bank rejected his application for an $80,000 mortgage. "It's about time normal people took a stand."

He said the bank turned down his application because he did not have a regular income as an artist. However, he was a successful artist, exhibiting his paintings at the World of Wearable Art complex, in Christchurch and New York, he said. (Go here for rest of story)

Roger has got it right, you have to fight these bastards because they will walk all over you if you don't.

Incidentally, most good lenders would have lent him the money, and so would I, based on the record with his bank alone. After all, we all remember that Westpac is the bank that will give away millions without any double checking your ability to pay your debts.

My loan payment dispute with ASB has not been rectified to my satisfaction because they have time limited their offer to July 31 and they were not the terms of my original loan.

The fact that they have offered to waive the fees though means I can use that offer against them when I take them to the disputes tribunal.

Fight your bank if you think they are wrong, if you don't get what you want, at least you tried and you might have some fun, like I have had, giving them a hard time.

More Banking Madness @ Share Investor

Bryce the Banker: The Final Insult
Banks not participating in Recession
Bank Guarantees: Time for banks to return the favour
The Return of Bryce
Banking Madness!

Discuss this topic @ Share Investor Forum

I'm Buying: Mainfreight Management delivers the goods

I must have had some kind of brain explosion yesterday, something in my personal life made me drop my risk/reward guard and I ended up spending just over $35,000.00.

I have wanted to have a medium sized splurge on a few stocks for the last year or so and the life changing event yesterday allowed me to finally release the financial and mental rubber band and take that risk.

I have been chugging along buying small parcels of shares over the last year April 2009 | July 2009 | July 2008 | June 2008 | June 2008 | but yesterday ended up buying 7000 more The Warehouse Group [WHS.NZ] shares and 1875 Mainfreight Ltd [MFT.NZ] shares at $4.20 per share, to take my holding to a nice round 5000 in the old Share Investor Portfolio.

I was tossing up between Mainfreight and Ryman Healthcare [RYM.NZ] and superior Mainfreight management, which I often obsess about, won me over.

I bought my original Mainfreight holding just over 2 years ago for just under 8 bucks, yes you read it right, 8 bucks. Over that holding period the stock has now cost me around $6.85 per share after dividends and tax credits are added, so that makes yesterday's purchase a bargain.

I am happy to hold at both prices.

** Photo & share purchase dedicated to my dear old Dad, who must be still driving a truck, wherever he is now, for the last 15 years!

Mainfreight @ Share Investor

Mainfreight Ltd: Fully Year 2010 Profit Analysis
Long Term View: Mainfreight Ltd
Share Investor Interview: Mainfreight's MD Don Braid
Stock of the Week: Mainfreight Ltd
Questions to Mainfreight's MD Don Braid
I'm Buying: Mainfreight Management delivers the goods
Mainfreight Annual Report Packs a Punch
Analysis - Mainfreight Ltd: FY Profit to 31/03/09
Mainfreight VS KiwiRail: The Sequel
Long VS Short: Mainfreight Ltd
Why did you buy that stock? [Mainfreight Ltd]
Mainfreight 2008 Annual report worth reading
KiwiRail will cost Mainfreight
Mainfreight keeps on truckin
A rare breed
Share Investor's 2008 stock picks

Discuss MFT @ Share Investor Forum

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c Share Investor 2009

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Commonsense VS Politics

The dumping of the introduction of folate into our daily bread by National just shows us how politically motivated our politicians are rather than acting on facts (well duh Darren).

The Nazi style move by Labour and its continued support to introduce folate into our bread shows us that the left still want to control us, but the fact that this wasn't rejected quickly by National is a worry.

The use of folate of any kind is a personal choice, to say otherwise is to go down a track that would ultimately have citizens eating what politicians want from State owned markets (with long lines and shortages no doubt) and we rejected that at the 2008 election.

To have National making the move based on political motivation rather than a question of personal choice or the fact that there are questions about synthetic folate and the danger of it, is just more of the same crap that we put up with over the last 9 years of the heavy handed socialist/nazi style regime that Labour presided over.

This political rather than fact based governance is really just a lie, all it does is keep the ignorant and stupid happy and keeps the incumbent Government's poll ratings up.

The same can be said of the global warming nonsense that National are continuing with.

It is a a clear myth acknowledged by most yet the bullshit rolls on simply because it buys votes from the rabid left vocal sector of our country, never mind that the facts are that the whole GW frenzy is a lie.

This way of governing is the rule of the vocal moronity and it is a sign of weakness from the Government.

For god sake, have your own ideas, act on commonsense and fact and forget about the politics.

If John Key doesn't stand firm on something for the right reasons, his Government is going to fall due to the line adhered to and moved by the dropkicks and looney lefties in Government departments and interest groups that he is currently listening to.

Lets see the commonsense that we were promised before the election.

c P0litical Animal 2009

I'm buying: Time to re-visit an old Red Friend

I love good stocks when the market is ignoring them. One stock that has been put in the bottom draw by many investors, including myself, is The Warehouse Group [WHS.NZ].

But just because a stock is out of favour by the market or not in the news doesn't mean you should forget about it. In fact if you are canny you should probably be more than a little contrary as others are looking at other more "newsworthy" companies.

I have kinda forgotten the red shed myself, I have had WHS shares in the Share Investor Portfolio for a number of years and have done a little bit of reading lately on the company and I like what I have to read.

Profit has been steady during the this recession (so far) and the cash continues to roll in as shoppers look for bargains.

Add to this a couple of stories, one from a month or so back from Bloomberg and one out today covering the Woolworth's Australia profit and things start to look a little more interesting for The Warehouse.

The Bloomberg piece covers off Woolworth's capital management and alludes to either a stock buyback for its own scrip or a "major" purchase in the offing, suggesting The Warehouse as a target.

Another article by Reuters confirms a bumper profit for Woolies, so they are free flowing with lovely green stuff.

The purchase/buyback scenario will probably be confirmed by the company when it reports its profit in August.

I bought 7000 shares today at a combined value of approx NZ$26,000.00 @ an average share price of $3.72.

My incumbent shareholding in this company, 8000 shares, was bought originally at $6.05 but I hold at a cost of $5.05 after dividends and tax credits are added after holding for 1.75 years.

I am happy to buy Warehouse shares and forget about them again but there is a distinct likelihood that either Woolworths or Foodstuffs, Woollies competing bidder, will make a play for the company in the medium term.

The bid for The Warehouse has been held up in litigation between the 3 parties involved and as I wrote back in January in When will the Warehouse bidders make their move? the process has now ground to a halt after the Commerce Commission won their case in the Appeal Court almost a year ago and Woolworth's sought leave in the Supreme Court to have that decision quashed a few weeks later.

Many things have changed since then, the major stumbling block to the takeover, the Extra format stores, has been dropped and economic conditions have made the retail environment even more competitive.

Watch this space.

The Warehouse Group @ Share Investor

Warehouse 2009 interim profit a key economic indicator
Stock of the Week: The Warehouse Group
When will The Warehouse bidders make their move?
Long vs Short: The Warehouse Group
Warehouse bidders ready to lay money down
The Warehouse set to cut lose "extra" impediment
The Warehouse sale could hinge on "Extra" decision
The case for The Warehouse without a buyer
Foodstuffs take their foot off the gas
Woolworths seek leave to appeal to Supreme Court
Warehouse appeal decision imminent
Warehouse decision a loser for all
Warehouse Court of appeal decision in Commerce Commission's favour
MARKETWATCH: The Warehouse
The Warehouse takeover saga continues
Why did you buy that stock? [The Warehouse]
History of Warehouse takeover players suggest a long winding road
Court of Appeal delays Warehouse bid
The Warehouse set for turbulent 2008
The Warehouse Court of Appeal case lay in "Extras" hands
WHS Court of Appeal case could be dismissed next week
Commerce Commission impacts on the Warehouse bottom line
The Warehouse in play
Outcomes of Commerce Commission decision
The fight for control begins soon

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c Share Investor 2009

Share Investor Portfolio: 22 July 2009

The Share Investor Portfolio now contains 17 stocks listed on the NZSX. The bulk of the portfolio started back in 2002 and I have added to the bulk of it by using dividends and cash.

Since the 10 July 22 update approx NZ $35000 was added due to two stock purchases made today, 1875 shares in Mainfreight Ltd [MFT.NZ] and 7000 shares in The Warehouse Group [WHS.NZ].

The Share Investor Portfolio as at 22 July 2009

Auckland International Airport [AIA] 5000
ASB Capital NO. 2 Ltd [ASBPB] 10000
Briscoe Group Ltd [BGR] 3000
Fletcher Building Ltd [FBU] 1114
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corp Ltd [FPH] 5000
Freightways Ltd [FRE] 8631
Goodman Fielder Ltd [GFF] 2000
Halleinstein Glasson Ltd [HLG] 1000
Kiwi Income Property Trust [KIP] 1000
Mainfreight Ltd [MFT] 5000
Michael Hill International Ltd [MHI] 10000
Postie Plus Ltd [PPG] 2535
Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL] 5000
Ryman Healthcare Ltd [RYM] 5000
Sky City Entertainment [SKC] 36915
Steel & Tube Holdings Ltd [STU] 400
The Warehouse Group Ltd [WHS] 15000

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c Share Investor 2002-2009