Share Investor's 2020 Stock Picks ;)

We have cut back on expense for next years "pick".

Welcome back to the stock picking monkey for 2020's.

This years picking is a little diff in that there will be no stock picks.

It has kind of run its course and ill tell you why if you be so kind to listen.

What is a stock pick but really an advert for yourself to pick whatever you want based on various methods.

I don't want to do that anymore, I see it as not helpful at all.

I would rather you pick the stock based on what you have learnt either through me or some other means.

The following para is an addendum. 

Except perhaps one stock - ill let you do the research - which I see as highly undervalued and that is where perhaps stock pickers come into their own picking undervalued stocks. I am going to pick one. Sky City Entertainment. It is ripe for the picking. Anything that you can buy at less than $4 is a steal. Hope I picked well Cameron Boyd ;0

So let me finish this year by thanking everyone for joining up at Share Investor and Ill finish on about what might happen next year. 

I see President Trump playing a big part in many portfolios - surprise, surprise.

I see the NZ dollar weaken.

I see bull markets to continue based on what we know so far and other indicators that are too numerous to mention.

I see interest rates drift lower (see above)

I see oil start to rise.

Gold the same.

Property in Auckland - rise. (Any monkey can pick that!)


Love as always to Sophia & Jacks  💓

Share Investor's Annual Stock Picks

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c Share Investor  2019

Buy For Yield!!

Like some of my stocks have gone up WAY out of proportion to their "importance" but one stock that I recently said sell I have to now give a buy because it has come down in price for one reason and that is because of the Tiwai Point fiasco. 

It came down from the early 9's to the mid 6's and dropping. 

i wouldn't be at all surprised to see it cross the ditch to land up in the high 5's.

Paying almost 6% net at current prices - not forecast to lower this years payout - this one is a steal right now. 

You could get it cheaper but history says you might not - especially given today's low interest rates.

For seasoned short term sellers and long term holders.



CEN @ Share Investor

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Discuss this stock at Share Investor  





c Share Investor 2019

Fisher and Paykel Healthcare Group: Sell

With the prospect of this stock ticking over to $20 and providing the portfolio a ten bagger - minus divs over 8/16 years. Fisher and Paykel Healthcare is getting more than a bit too expensive.

It currently sits at a tad over a 51 P.E. - which is too expensive but its holding up because it hasn't disappointed the market for about 7 years and look set to continue this stellar run for many more years but there is one thing that would stop this baby from climbing. I've said it before, ill say it again. A rise in the KIWI/US dollar.

Every 1 cent diff is $3m NZ +/- . So it is not insignificant the machinations between these two highly traded currencies because most of FPH business is done in the US dollar. 

Added to this is the prospect one day and it will happen, FPH will have a bad year. Everyone is aware of this but nobody will bat an eyelid as this thing lurches from one high to the next the plain fact is this is highly susceptible to a re - rating should FPH step out of line - it has happened once before since listing in 2001.

When this happens - because any downside will be temporary - is the time to cut the profits elsewhere in your portfolio and plunk as much down as you can on this one.

FPH has patents right up the wazoo and will be busy fulfilling these. They currently employ up to $NZ125m a year next year or 9% of turnover on research and development so that patent Que is is only going to get bigger.

I will not be selling the large number of shares that I hold.

If I do ill tell ya.



Fisher & Paykel Healthcare @ Share Investor

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Discuss Fisher & Paykel Healthcare @ Share Investor 






c Share Investor 2019

Contact Energy: Buy for Yield

Last time we talked about this one it was selling at about $7.50   Little did I know about it when I wrote about it in June that yesterday it was trading at $7.68.

It has traded at a high of $9.05c and was savaged recently when Rio Tinto decided it was going too do its semi annual raid of the taxpayer dollar by sticking its hand out - BUT quite rightly Labour said NO.

That is the ONLY thing this writer sees fit that Labour have done.

It is paying a good dividend of 5.7% which is forecast to stand still next year. Pretty good return when compared with a 2.5% gain in the bank.

I know I said sell before but I have changed my mind.

With CEN only supplying 10% of the power to Tiwai Point (the smelter) that lot should be gobbled up pretty quickly should the padlocks need to come out for Rio Tinto. It means Contact Energy will not have to spend as big for many many years on new power sources.

But there will a few casualties if Rio decide to go - those with high debt may need to start looking around for cheaper rates.

You would do well to have a few thousand of these to pay the power bill every year.




c Share Investor 2019