Anyway it has just occurred to me that labour have a plan. They plan to change EVERYTHING that national have done over the last 5 or 6 years.
I've heard them announce policies over the last few days and it occurred to me that every part of a particular policy WILL be changed, save a couple of good details. They are talking about education, benefit rates, employment law etc...everything put in place by key that has done us very we'll over the GFC.
Are you really that finicky that you would change because of a few emails and the appearance of 2 fat men on the political horizon...2 vicious men who don't give a fuck about you or me, they just care about themselves.
Think about it before you vote, I'm voting 2 ticks blue this sept 20. There is nobody else, I'd vote for labour if they had decent people who were normal and had good sound policies but they don't.
Just a brief note on one pushy person, Anna Lorke, labour candidate for the tukituki seat, hawkesbay, for the sept 20 election.
She just happened to knock on my door to answer questions. Well, what I thought was answer questions, she did and I told her my first vote was for labour all those years ago and that all she needed to do to make me vote labour again was go back to what David Lange did in the 1980s and she'd get my vote again.
No she said she was far more progressive than that.
She told me she voted national and came on over to labour on their education vote.
She finally told me what she was really there for, to put a hoarding up on my property, a cool corner one where it's close to the street.
Time to check in and see if I have refashioned, refocused, retooled or just left things the way they are with the Share Investor Portfolio.
Well, I have just revised the portfolio by adding one thing, and that is MOA.NZ. With that I have bought just 1000 at 55c. Of course they are now down to 41c, any minute now they are going to do a Lazarus like recovery and head on way past $1. That is the theory, we will soon see the practice.
I have noticed that MFT.NZ has really packed on the pounds recently putting on 45c to finish closing at $14.85. A real little rocker that finished on a high on Friday and looks set to continue. I wouldn't sell it at any price, look to see this share setting new records over the years. Management don't set well with dividing up share prices for the hell of it so looks like its headed up to Xero territory, and to stay there.
Another share doing well has been FPH.NZ , at around $4.68 it looks like it will double in value over the coming 5 years as its revenue tops 1 Billion - could be a race between Fishers and Mainfreight to see who reaches silly heights, love the market.
SKC.NZ isn't doing well at the moment, I thinks its started this year about where it is now - but be warned when news comes out about the new gaming features the company is going to bring to the market and how well they do - the share is going to take off. It owes me very little.
RYM.NZ is another great , fantastic, splendid share. Cant really say much more about this, growing BIG.
AIA.NZ has taken a wee turn for the worse but owes me very little, while CEN.NZ has returned about 30% but has yet to take off - National winning the election will take care of that.
And the WHS.NZ is doing what it always does, lurching along from one profit warning to another.
One truly good company, HLG.NZ is down about 25% bought 10000 last year for $4.42 is struggling and even though it has recently came out with all looks well, seems to be marking time to the actual profit announcement in September. Well, thats it really, remember, think and do your OWN research before plucking down the dollars. It is only money but its your money!
Superstar Xero a surprising omission from list for investors to add to their portfolios
Mainfreight is a popular pick for a strong performance in 2014 due to its increasing international exposure. Photo / Sarah Ivey
Air New Zealand is the most popular pick by brokers for 2014 riding on the back of strong expectations for profit growth at the national carrier.
Three out of seven brokers chose the airline, whose shares have already risen more than 25 per cent this year.
Rob Mercer, an analyst at Forsyth Barr, said Air New Zealand was heading into 2014 in great shape with earnings expected to increase from those already seen in 2013.
"Air New Zealand (is) poised to deliver several years of strong profit performance."
Mercer said the drivers behind that were improved demand, cost cutting, changes to loss-making long-haul routes and stable fuel prices.
Macquarie analyst Brad Gordon said Air New Zealand had outperformed its airline peers yet it was trading at a cheaper price.
"Air New Zealand's return on equity is around 11 per cent, Qantas is basically zero."
Gordon said that in the past Air New Zealand's value had traded at a discount because of the Government's high level of ownership.
The 20 per cent sold down by the Government in 2013 reduced the overhang issue and increased liquidity in the stock. Trade volumes had been boosted from around half a million dollars a day to around $1.5 million to $2 million.
Gordon said the nature of the New Zealand market meant Air New Zealand stood to benefit from the country's strong economic growth and flow-on effects from the Christchurch rebuild with more people travelling up and down the country.
Outside of Air New Zealand, Diligent, Chorus, Fisher & Paykel Healthcare, Contact Energy, Infratil and Mainfreight received two picks each.
Diligent, a software providers of corporate board documents, was a top performer in 2012 but this year it has struggled with governance issues and delays in restating its accounts. Its shares have fallen more than 25 per cent.
Gordon was not worried about Diligent having to restate its accounts.
"It's not entirely unusual for new software companies to go through restatements globally."
The big question mark was whether the issue had distracted management and impacted sales for the company. He would be looking closely at quarterly sales figures due out early next year.
Diligent was a top pick for brokers in 2013 but remarkably none of the brokers have picked Xero either this year or for 2014, despite its stellar performance.
Gordon believed that was down to a lack of understanding over Xero's valuation. "The last $15 the company put on really there has been no news. On the face of it it's the most expensive SAAS (software as a service) company on valuation."
Others have zeroed in on companies with strong global growth prospects.
Mark Lister, head of research at Craigs Investment Partners, said he picked Fisher & Paykel Healthcare because the business is growing strongly offshore and was well positioned to continue to deliver over the medium term. "If we see any currency weakness emerge, this would serve to enhance the investment proposition even more," he said.
Lister also picked Mainfreight for its increasing international exposure.
"Mainfreight has a strong brand and market position in Australasia but over recent years, an increasing portion of revenues and earnings have come from international operations including those in Europe and the US.
"A recovery in some of these regions, as well as any strength in the currency, would benefit Mainfreight."
Forsyth Barr's Mercer said he backed Mainfreight because it had a high marginal return on equity, it was beating peers on earnings growth and had a proactive executive team.
"Mainfreight has substantial global growth prospects."
Brokers top picks:
Macquarie Securities
Summerset Group
Diligent
Pumpkin Patch
Air New Zealand
Chorus
First NZ Capital
Fisher and Paykel Healthcare
Hellaby Holdings
Airwork Holdings
Z Energy
Contact Energy
Goldman Sachs
Trade Me
Tower
Air New Zealand
Infratil
Nuplex
Craigs Investment Partners
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Fletcher Building
Meridian Energy
Mainfreight
Australian Foundation Investment Company
Forsyth Barr
Air New Zealand
Contact Energy
Sky Television.
Mainfreight
Opus International Consultants
McDouall Stuart
Telecom
Diligent
Infratil
Heartland Bank
VMob
*Disclaimer - Before using the Business Herald survey to choose a broker or stocks, readers should recognise that the results are skewed by some features. The figures exclude brokers fees. Brokers are asked to choose the securities that will give the best short-term performance. If they had been asked to choose, for example, a five year term, the results might be different. The survey does not allow brokers to review choices during the year. The survey implies a one-size-fits-all approach. It takes no account of individual circumstances such as an investor's appetite for risk, need for income or tax circumstances. The views expressed do not constitute personalised financial advice and are not directed at any person. Finally, past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
