Share Price Alert : Contact Energy 14

My pick for the 20 Feb was this one and its just about to pass the $7 mark - its @ $6.94c - which it is what I said was the mark to look at selling.

Which I have yesterday with a small portion.

BUT what I didn't count on was this, the continuation of the low, low interest rates that continue to haunt the globe - I don't agree with this but that is another story for another day.

Interest rates look to be on hold or indeed downwards. What do investors need and in fact what they did do this week? They bought stock on the NZX. Not just Contact Energy but many of the other energy retailers and anything else with a financial pulse. In fact the NZX finished the quarter on an all-time high.

My guess is that they will continue to buy this stock in particular because it has a return of just over 5% and looks set for a bigger return this Aug when they will report a big one, no doubt, along with a 20c DIV.

So even though I initially said now was a time to think of selling what happened this week to interest rates for me would add another 50c or so to bring my price to $7.50.

Get out at that price if you will or continue to hold, like me AND collect the DIVS.

AND remember these low interest rates are set to continue for at least 2 years.

Invest/trade wisely!!!



CEN @ Share Investor

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Arvida Group Ltd: When to Buy

You could be forgiven for thinking Arvida Group has been stuck in a holding pattern since June 2018 but you can take off the table about 5 cents because that is the DIV and your just about within the range of where its been trading. So there's been no movement since then.

According to Moaningstar - I know but others in the industry say its around the same - it has a net asset backing of $1.15c.

That's relatively important because in its short history of about 4 years the stock hasn't gone below $1.10 (except when it was finding its feet in the first year when it dipped to .79c) and is unlikely to unless we have another stockmarket rort like we had 10 years ago or the housing market over corrects - which I have said is happening right now. Just beware of that one caveat - because if it does explode expect this share will come right back to under $1.

Having said that it is still worth accumulating because Simplywallstreet has this share at a discounted cash flow value of $3.98.

Its also paying a reasonable DIV of just over 4.23% net and trades at a p.e. ratio of 7.26.

So with this stock you can see quite a few possibilities. Ranging from .79c to the $1.30's range.

BUT it is a stock worth buying you just have to watch it closely - which i have over the last many, many months.

I will add to my current holding AND will severely if it slips wildly.

Keep cool till after the stock market closes. 

Trade/invest wisely.




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Fisher & Paykel Healthcare: Questioning

There's no doubt about it it FPH is definitely way overpriced.

Whether that's a symptom of the lack of quality stocks on the New Zealand market or whether is because of the hot fire underneath the company - it has been doing gang busters for a number of years - it all depends where you come from.

It tacked on well over $1 about 2 weeks ago when it mentioned to the markets that all bets were off and that the legal stoush FPH was having with RMD - Resmed - was over worldwide, so it is very sensitive to this kind of info.

No doubt the coming results out this May will be good and you have to understand that this legal brouhaha that is now over brings $20m pa in cash straight to the bottom-line.

So I think there is opportunity here for some short term gain of at least $2 per share from here for you short termer's and for us long termer's their is scope to pick some of these up during its weaker times - like the US/kiwi dollar cross going the other way.

So if you want to get some of that money back from that errant lawyer, give this a go.

Trade/invest wisely.


Fisher & Paykel Healthcare @ Share Investor

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