National Party newcomer Simon Bridges looks set to comfortably take the seat at next Saturday's election.
The poll shows Bridges has climbed to 54%, up six points since the last poll in August, while Peters is stagnant on 28%.
Larry Baldock from the Kiwi Party is next on 7%, up from 4%.
Support for Labour's Anne Pankhursts has dived to 5%, a third of what she polled in August
The Tauranga seat is indicative for the election outcome and things don't look good for Labour either. Support for their candidate is way down to around 5% of the vote.
A big win for National is likely based on this local polling result.
c Political Animal 2008
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