TV One, Colmar Brunton Poll: 20 July 2008

Jul 20, 2008 6:31 PM

Labour has had a rare burst of good news with a bounce back in the latest ONE News Colmar Brunton poll.

But the party still has a mountain to climb before the election and for Winston Peters and New Zealand First, the numbers don't stack up.

National has fallen a little in the poll but still has a clear majority over Labour which had a six point lift to take it back into the mid-30s.

National, 52%, is well ahead of Labour on 35% while the Green Party polled 6%. None of the other minor parties reached the 5% threshold this month.

National with 65 seats could still govern alone on these numbers which would leave Labour in opposition with 44 seats, along with the Greens with seven.

Assuming they win their electorate seats the Maori Party (1.7%) would have four seats, Act (1.2%) two and United Future and the Progressives one seat each. Without a seat New Zealand First (2.4%) would be out of parliament.

The party National leader John Key is preferred prime minister on 38% with Helen Clark firmly in second place on 31%. Just 4% think the job should go to the next highest contender, Winston Peters.

The poll is a reality check for National which has begun revealing its policy - including opening up the Accident Compensation Corporation for competition and reintroducing a 90 day trial period for new staff in small firms.

The poll of 1000 eligible voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1%.

Related Political Animal reading (this weekend's polls)

TV3 News Poll: July 20 2008
Fairfax Neilson Poll: July 19 2008
Roy Morgan Poll: July 18 2008

c Political Animal 2008