Fairfax Nielson Poll: 19 July 2008

In what is possibly what Helen Clark would call a "rogue poll", Labour have closed to gap in the latest Fairfax/Nielson Poll. The trend has been a 20 point plus gap between Labour and National over the last 4 months with a couple of blips since sept 2007, so it is not as good for Labour as a look at today's single polling result might suggest.

Reinforcing that the Nielson poll might be a rogue one, the Roy Morgan Poll, out yesterday, continues the trend of a 20 plus point lead by National, the same trend established in the Nielson poll.

Poll watchers will be able to state a slip for support for National if there is a similar Nielson poll in August.

The Roy Morgan poll has been the more accurate one in predicting election results and the margins of the vote.


By TRACY WATKINS - The Dominion Post | Saturday, 19 July 2008

Labour has been thrown a lifeline by today's Fairfax Media-Nielsen poll showing the gap with National has closed to its narrowest since last year.

Though National would comfortably govern alone on today's poll results, Labour has clawed its way back from a 24-point deficit last month to 16 points today.

That may not be enough to turn around perceptions that the election is a foregone conclusion, but it has arrested a trend in which Labour's support fell below 30 per cent in the same poll last month, a result that shocked many Labour foot soldiers.

Prime Minister Helen Clark acknowledged Labour's recovery to 35 per cent would be a morale boost.

"I've been saying to people for a long time the feeling in the heartland was nothing like 29 or 30 per cent ... our people will be very motivated by these results."

Labour had been warned that its attacks on National leader John Key's credibility, including a holding of Tranz Rail shares and policies such as ACC, would backfire.

But today's poll shows the gap between Mr Key and Miss Clark as preferred prime minister narrowing to seven points, the closest since November, suggesting the attacks are having an effect.

And it reveals a lot of voters - 28 per cent - remain undecided about whom they would prefer as prime minister. Continued

Related Political Animal Reading

Roy Morgan Poll: 18 July 2008

c Political Animal 2008