The current market turmoil seems more a reaction to uncertainty over the scope of the sub prime losses and the attendant credit crunch rather certainty over how bad it really is.
Those with the knowledge over just how much the losses are not telling the general investing public and may I be so bold to suggest that they are not telling our political masters either and if they have then our politicians are not telling all lest they panic the sheep and cause some sort of financial stampede.
To be fair the losses would have to be in the trillions to have material serious effects on financial markets and economies but the uncertainty over losses seems to have done more damage than the realities over an accurate amount.
The uncertainty has dented the all important credit sector of the economy. A sector that relies on trust, full disclosure and the knowledge that with all things known to the lender he can fork over the credit knowing he is more than likely to get his money back.
It is the essence of how business and economies run.
This trust simply doesn’t freely exist anymore and will take a complete clean out of the sub prime losses and then time to restore the much needed trust that this all important part of the business world needs.
Until then, business growth will slow, economies likewise and the mere fact that the trust isn’t there will apply the hand brakes to just about everything that needs credit applied to it. That is most of the worlds’ economy and that is why this “credit crunch” has been talked about so much.
Just a rider to the above though. If losses are in the multi trillions then the psychological trust issue that I have discussed over lending to others will be matched by hard facts that some real money has actually been lost.
The impact of that will be hard to measure but clearly it will be serious.
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Related Amazon Reading
The Crunch: Uncovering the Truth Behind the Great Credit Scandal by Alex Brummer
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c Share Investor 2007
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