Allan Hubbard Saga: Mental Challenge

The Allan Hubbard Saga has just taken a bizarre and unexpected twist.

As reported in the NBR this morning, Hubbard's official support team have been sending MRI brain scans to the Serious Fraud Office. To what end is unclear but one can see Mr Hubbard's Lawyers might be trying for the sympathy vote. If he can be seen as doddery, unable to understand detail and incapable of thinking clearly(hang on isn't that what this is all about anyway!) then there is the possibility a poor judge with charges brought before him by the SFO against Hubbard might be inclined to set them side because of Hubbard's delicate mental and physical shape:

But legal and medical specialists says they are astonished by that and suspect the use of an MRI brain scan is part of an attempt to prove Mr Hubbard is not fit to stand trial.

Both Serious Fraud Office director Adam Feeley and Mr Hubbard’s lawyer, Russell McVeagh partner Mike Heron, have indicated a decision on whether the Timaru accountant will face charges over Aorangi Securities is likely to be made late next week.

NBR understands the Serious Fraud Office has not requested any medical information about Mr Hubbard.

With impending charges due from the SFO next week, Hubbard's legal team is looking increasingly desperate to keep their man from facing serious charges of fraud, forgery, incomplete and missing paperwork. Clearly his lawyers think the SFO and other Government agencies have a strong case against their man otherwise their defence would be one of them gathering their own evidence against the charges rather than pleading a lack of mental capacity to stand trial.

The self appointed unofficial Hubbard Support team, who includes traveling salesman Paul Carruthers and religious devotee Michelle Halliwell, this time appear to be the sane ones with a really good point made on Hubbard's Lawyers possible plea:

“a slippery road that we do not want to go down under any circumstances” as it raised the prospect of an end-game.

“What if they say he is not fit for trial? Therefore he can’t run a company [and] it allows them to strike him off the companies register while bypassing the courts,” Paul Carruthers NBR

Although a contrary opinion from his supporters, who have thus far been publicly rallying for a quashing of any charges and an abandonment of a trial, Mr Carruthers and his fellow travelers have now done a sensible 180 degree turn and are right that if a trial is abandoned then the public are not going to see a clear decision about whether Hubbard is guilty or not of the charges thus far only brought against him in the media and investigated by the SFO and several other Government and private agencies.

I agree, we need a clear decision on his guilt or other and that is why the charges need to be placed and the trial needs to go ahead.

Allan Hubbard Saga

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Share Price Alert: Pumpkin Patch Ltd

Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL.NZX] has been out with a profit downgrade this morning and this has seriously affected its share price, it has dropped by more than 9.5% or 15c at time of writing to be trading at $1.42.

There is an overall weakness in retailing stocks at present and just yesterday Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd [HLG.NZX] came out with its own profit downgrade.

The Pumpkins profit levels have been up and down over the last 2-3 years after spending most of its listed life rising and the share price has reflected that.

Most recently it has taken hits from failed expansions into the UK and the USA but now its Australasian units have performed badly for the first time, indicating perhaps something more serious at play.

The company still lacks solid management but they have removed Greg Muir who cost the company millions through their failed expansion outlined above.

The company still has a core of loyal followers and a very strong brand and is well placed to ride out these tough times.

This is a good opportunity to buy on the way down.

I fear though there will be more bad news to come so be patient.


Disclosure: I own PPL shares in the Share Investor Portfolio


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Share Price Alert: Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd

Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd [HLG.NZX] had a profit downgrade yesterday and they indicated that net profit after tax for the 6 months ended 1 February 2011 is projected to be in the range of $7.0 –$ 7.4 million, a decrease of 13% - 18% on the prior year ($8.549 million). Sales were marginally down indicating HLG was discounting to keep market share.

This comes on top of a pretty good FY 2010 result.

I was only questioning myself in September last year about whether I should sell or hold given that the shares were rocketing up and they peaked in November last year at $4.60.

The shares have been losing ground over the last few months before this announcement and they were down by 24c to $3.86 or almost 6% yesterday on low volumes traded.

It is a well managed company with excellent dividends and this bad news could be a good opportunity to pick some up as the stock price drifts south.

Buy on inevitable further weakness in the retail sector.


Disclosure: I own HLG shares in the Share Investor Portfolio


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Investing in the Stockmarket: Timing your Purchase

My Mainfreight Ltd [MFT.NZX] shareholding really is a tale of two stories.

I bought my initial shareholding at $7.96 and $8 over 4 years ago and my most recent addition in 2009 for $4.20.

Yesterday the stock closed at $8.15, an all time high.

The two stories are as follows:

1. The initial shareholding has returned $1.02c in net dividends and 33c in tax credits with a rise in share price of 2%. This gives a total return of approx 19% or an annual return of approx 4.75%.

2. The second shareholding has returned 42c in net dividends and 33c in tax credits with a rise in share price of 94%. This gives a total return of approx 107% or an annual return of approx 71 %.

Apart from the quality of the company and the research you must do to find the right performance and management, what I am pointing out here is that the timing of your investment purchase is critical to your returns.

I was happy to buy the company at 8 bucks because I knew long term that I would be a winner and the recent share price rise and performance of the company is vindication of that but clearly buying stocks when the prospects for a good company are at a high is not always the best way of buying.

I have learnt this over the last 2 years of the stockmarket volatility, buying beaten down stocks (see below for links) in companies I already own, and it looks like another opportunity will present itself as global stockmarkets like the NYSE start to reach all-time highs (with the exception of NZX, Japan and a few others) in a global economic background that doesn't fit with stockmarket gains.

I am keeping my options open and being patient, so should you if you want better returns.


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