Wednesday, May 14, 2008

Stick to what you know

One thing alot of people do in life,especially when they get bored, are particularly ambitious(or turn 40!) is to go outside one's comfort zone to challenge their personal or professional skills, this can be quite rewarding in many ways, a sense of achievement comes from trying new things and the risk of failure can often be forgotten in the heat of excitement.

While this approach to life in general is much to be admired, this sort of approach to investing is probably one of the easiest ways to lose your hard earned bucks.

When deciding to buy a business or part of a business, as stocks are, one of the most important aspects you must consider is if you understand what it is the company does and how it does it.

Look for either a good business that you yourself may have industry experience in or is simple enough to understand with a minimum of interpretation of company reports.

Food companies, retailing, steel making and strong brands like, Coca Cola and McDonald's are easily understood even by the most green of investors.

This basic investment tenant can also be applied to the management of any business or enterprise. Watch closely at management of any company who also want to go out of their comfort zone or level of experience and therefore competence.

A successful toilet paper company that suddenly decides to use their excellent profits to expand into the new car business is one that you don't want to invest in and if you are already invested you should roll yourself right out of there.

Coca Cola tried to mess with the formula to their main product in 1985, they didn't need to, they were still number one, but the CEO decided to go outside his level of expertise and change their simple successful 100 year old product. It would have meant the end of the company had the decision to recall the old formula not been made.

The formula of sticking to what you know clearly goes across all asset classes as well.

Be it bonds, of either the Sub-prime or "prime" variety, stocks, real estate, gold, oil, pork bellies or carbon trading, you must stick to what you know first. If you want to get into something you don't know, either you don't, or you do your homework and become as competent as you can.

It is very easy to look at glowing company reports, prospectus' or advisor recommendations of companies but when those businesses are more complex than a real estate agent's patter on explaining why the view in the advertising looks nothing like the view from the house itself, don't go along with the hype.

K.I.S.S. keep it simple stupid!

Who in their right mind would get into a company like Blue Chip New Zealand, their company was structured like a pyramid within a maze, but people looked past the complexity and "invested" anyway.

While of course good management, good company history and growing revenue and profit are also essential ingredients in the investing cake, removing complexity from the mix is going to make one's decision a more profitable one in the long run.

Understanding a business or investment is a really good start along the road of success and the new challenges will lie in continuing to keep the business/investment simple. Keep the challenges for the weekend and bungee jumping in Queenstown.


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c Share Investor 2008

Monday, May 12, 2008

History of Warehouse takeover players indicates a long winding road

With The Warehouse Group [WHS.NZX] shares taking a dive over the last week or so because of their weak sales data and grim outlook in the medium term, the attractiveness to speculators wanting to get an even better slice of the company and flog it off to Woolworths Australia [WOW:ASX]-I don't think Foodstuffs are in the game because of their shallow pockets-is an opportunity going begging for.

Given that the Overseas Investment Office has already given its approval for Woolworths OZ to acquire the owner of the Red Sheds the only stumbling block for the big W will be for them to lose their defence of an appeal by the seriously malfeasant Commerce Commission(CC), who want to put the brakes on any possible deal to stitch up The Warehouse with Foodstuffs or Woolworths OZ.




The Warehouse Group @ Share Investor

Long vs Short: The Warehouse Group
Warehouse bidders ready to lay money down
The Warehouse set to cut lose "extra" impediment
The Warehouse sale could hinge on "Extra" decision
The case for The Warehouse without a buyer
Foodstuffs take their foot off the gas
Woolworths seek leave to appeal to Supreme Court
Warehouse appeal decision imminent
Warehouse decision a loser for all
Warehouse Court of appeal decision in Commerce Commission's favour
MARKETWATCH: The Warehouse
The Warehouse takeover saga continues
Why did you buy that stock? [The Warehouse]
History of Warehouse takeover players suggest a long winding road
Court of Appeal delays Warehouse bid
The Warehouse set for turbulent 2008
The Warehouse Court of Appeal case lay in "Extras" hands
WHS Court of Appeal case could be dismissed next week
Commerce Commission impacts on the Warehouse bottom line
The Warehouse in play
Outcomes of Commerce Commission decision
The fight for control begins soon

Share Investor Forum-Discuss this topic


Much of the Commission's case relies on the potential of The Warehouse Extra to provide competition to the current "duopoly", stunningly a duopoly that the Commerce Commission itself voted for when it initially allowed Progressive to merge Foodtown's brands with Woolworths NZ in 2002. Woolworths Australia then bought that merged entity in 2005.


Dr Farmer said the High Court at Wellington was wrong in fact when it concluded it was unlikely the Extra store concept would be expanded and even if it did succeed it was unlikely to exert competitive pressure.

"It would be ironic that the firm, which has the potential to expand and which is already exerting pressure on the incumbents, should be able to be the subject of acquisition by one or other of those incumbents, thereby subjecting consumers once again to the duopoly," Dr Farmer said.

James Farmer QC April 30 2008.


Ironic indeed Dr Farmer, have you read your client's former cases that initially advocated a duopoly in 2002?

The Warehouse itself has stated that the Extra format hasn't achieved the potential that they thought it would and it seems unlikely that they will expand the current 3 stores to the 15 planned ones.

Farmer then spent much time grasping at straws by arguing over what the term"likely"might mean.

There is fierce competition for market share in the supermarket sector though and if you look at the trail of litigation over the Progressive/NZ Woolworths merger of 2002, where an appeal was taken all the way to the Privy Council by Foodstuffs, lost, and then writs and a judicial review taken regarding the Overseas Investment Commission and their decision to allow the merger. The whole process began in May 2001 and was only rectified towards the end of 2002.

As I have indicated in earlier columns, even if the appeal to the High Court is lost by the CC, and I think they will lose-they lost their 2002 case after changing their initial positive stance to allow a merger, due to a small change in competition law- they can still put their tail between their legs and run off to the Supreme Court in Wellington and start yet another appeal. The history of these supermarket players and the Commerce Commission would indicate that the Supreme court is the most likely scenario. In which case any decision, either way, will be closer to the end of 2008.

The Warehouse shares were down 2.8% to NZ$5.20 or 15c on over 1 million shares traded today and any further weakness in share price is an opportunity for a good short to medium term play.


Related Reading

Warehouse takeover battle in court TVNZ
NZ retail duopoly court case begins The Australian
Woolworths still keen on NZ's Warehouse - report Reuters


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The Warehouse Financial Data


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Sunday, May 11, 2008

Share Investor News

I am pleased to announce another website from the Share Investor stable.

At Share Investor News ,investors can keep themselves up to date with investment and finance news from the likes of Reuters, BBC Business video, Forbes, NBR.co.nz and more, with much more content to come.

It is all updated live via RSS feeds and of course available from the Share Investor sites links to the left column of this page or by typing www.news.shareinvestorforum.com into your browser.

The news site is part of the coming new permanent home for the Share Investor Forum, www.shareinvestorforum.com, where investors can discuss the minutia of investing to their hearts content.

I hope you find the new news site useful and if you have any suggestions or comment please contact Darren.

c Share Investor 2008

Why did you buy that stock? [Michael Hill International]


I initially resisted buying shares in Michael Hill International, [MHI] the operator of approximately 200 Jewelry stores in New Zealand, Australia and Canada because the dividend wasn't big enough.

Buying Michael Hill shares would be contrary to my investing belief that an investment should pay good returns, right from the beginning, when you plunk down those hard earned sheckels.

Why did you buy that stock?

Why did you buy that stock? [Mainfreight]
Why did you buy that stock? [The Warehouse]
Why did you buy that stock? [Goodman Fielder]
Why did you buy that stock? [Auckland Airport]
Why did you buy that stock? [Sky City Entertainment]

I then watched over the years as MHI management continued to have a sustained success in their business and have 20 plus years of good revenue and profit growth behind them.

I then re thunk my position on dividends and returns and decided to look longer term, where I thought Michael Hill's main prospects lie.

Therefore the main reason I bought MHI shares was in the company and its good long-term prospects, 5 years and up. Granted, it is doing well currently but its big future lies in the long-term management and progress of the company for even better investor returns.

Its position in my high dividend portfolio as a "growth stock" marks it out only with Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL] in that respect. My portfolio was previously lacking in such growth stocks and it is probably prudent for investors to have one or two in their portfolios.

Good management marks this company out from many others listed on the NZX and as you might know, as a seasoned investor, good management of a company is the most crucial part of a business, save the product or service being sold. Management for me is another key reason for picking Michael Hill. This is embodied in Michael Hill, the man himself, and he has provided a culture where his other managers are able to run the company the way he would want and therefore the transition to another CEO in the future will be relatively easy-another good long-term indicator.

Once again, and it seems to be a recurrant theme that runs through the businesses that I pick to invest in, they are easy to understand. Like the other retailers in my portfolio, Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL] Postie Plus Group [PPG] and The Warehouse [WHS] they simply sell goods to the public. Easy peasy.

For me, having Michael Hill has part of my portfolio provides an opportunity for me to participate in a growing business in which the full benefits of that growth, in terms of larger profit , a bigger company and revenue are still many years down the track. Along with excellent management and and easy to understand business any significant dips in share price would be a good opportunity for me to acquire a much larger stake than my current 1000 share holding and I wouldn't hesitate to take that opportunity.


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