Share Investor's 2016 Stock Picks

I want to thank Halle Berry because without her this years picks would

have been more difficult. She helped be with a few stragglers.

Well I'm going to do something different for next years stock picks. I'm just going to pick what I have in my portfolio - minus the weedy ones - and add what I think will be some goers for next year.

So this list is going to be a lot shorter than usual.

Ill start my begging at Sky City Entertainment SKC

This will finally be the start of many a fine year for this company. Many of the rules to relax gaming will apply and they all do so BEFORE the casino is ready to go.

Watch this start to climb from this year.

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare FPH is another pick, picked again last year, it improved substantially this year and will do again in 2016. Plenty of money being spent, new things being created and sold at less and less cost.

All this means good things if YOU are a shareholder.

Mainfreight Ltd MFT is well on track to deliver the goods in 2016.

Money has been spent on warehouses in Auckland, Hamilton, Christchurch, Brisbane, Melbourne, Los Angeles's and one other place I cant remember right now but trust me, they have shelled out the noodles, now they just have to bring them in.

Auckland Airport AIA, it delivered in 2015, it will again in 2016.

Ryman Healthcare RYM is of course a definite push for the entry doors as this keeps getting bigger and bigger. Ignore all broker conflabs about when to buy etc. Do your own research and find the time to get yourself involved.

Contact Energy CEN, get it while its under or close to 5 bucks. Its got a clear 3-4 years ahead as far as capital returns go and there maybe something up CEO Dennis Barnes sleeves.

Lastly pick Hallensteins Glassons HLG, You have to be PATIENT but you can pick it up and all day long its paying 10% plus.

And the best thing about it is that its NOT covered by analysts and brokers (surely two of the most painful words in the market-mans (see what I did there and I will do from now on) dictionary) So you can make your way without the bluff and bluster.

Its a good stock.

Now for two of the ones I don't hold.

Ebos Group EBO, value in this stock AT MUCH LOWER levels. Like in the 7-8 dollars. Good management.

Infratil Ltd IFT, I've been meaning to chuck a few shekels at you but you cant go wrong with their assets and the way the company is run.

Finally, something I see as a contender for M & A activity next year. Trustpower Ltd TPW. That's the one Dennis has his eyes on.

Told ya Id be biased. Well if I cant get behind my stocks and sell them who else is going to.

Pick these stocks on dips in their share prices-they ALL have dips.

The Warehouse WHS excluded because its just about dead the rest of my stocks are headed for the hills in the next couple of years...they will have paid for themselves and start paying me pure profit.

See you next year.

Darren

P.S. If you have your own picks put them down at the bottom.


www.shareinvestorforum.com


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c Share Investor 2015, 2016

Mainfreight: 10 Billion in 10 years

Tis merely a blip in the ocean one could say about today's announcement of profit for the Mainfreight Group [MFT.NZ]

Which mean all the expense was done in the previous half, new or extended warehouses in Auckland, Hamilton, Christchurch, Melbourne, Brisbane and the revenue failed to come in the second half - its already picking up in October and November.

Its just a matter of time and time has already added about NZ$100 million to revenue.

Revenue in New Zealand rose 5.9 percent to about $271 million and earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation fell 3 percent to $29 million, but the company doesn't expect overhead and wage costs will need to rise further as volumes increase.

In Australia, sales rose 5.2 percent to A$248.6 million, while Ebitda fell 14 percent to A$13.2 million. The performance of its domestic transport business in Australia "was well below our expectations", contributing to the "less-than satisfactory" 26 percent drop in first-half Ebitda.
"Overhead cost increases, a declining gross margin and poor sales growth were all factors affecting the result," it said.

It should concentrate on sales growth for the following half.

In the Americas, its Mainfreight USA business lifted first-half sales by 16 percent to US$155.4 million, while Ebitda fell 13 percent to US$4.96 million. Its air and ocean business recorded 32 percent sales growth and 27 percent earnings growth. That was offset by weaker earnings from domestic operations, where sales rose 2.9 percent and Ebitda dropped 37 percent, reflecting expansion of its line-haul routes and new logistics warehouse facilities in Los Angeles, Dallas and New Jersey.

This is part of the cost that I mentioned earlier and a really exciting part of the growth seeing these towns come under the Mainfreight wing. Just like New Zealand did all those years ago. You will see untold growth coming from these areas, especially Dallas, which I have an interest in.

Mainfreight reported improved results in Europe, with sales edging up 0.7 percent to 130.8 million euros and earnings gaining 14 percent to 5.9 million euros. It posted an improved performance from its European forwarding and transport operations, helped by a turnaround in its Belgian business. Its logistics operations "continue to show progress, and it noted "good momentum" in air and ocean. Those trends were expected to continue through the second half.

The Euros always have been an anathema to me but they will eventually come right, Mainfreight will tell you themselves they paid way too much for it.

I believe the Mainfreight business is in fine form, just going over one of the many bumps in the road on the way to the 10 billion in 10 years.


Mainfreight @ Share Investor


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c Share Investor 2015

Financial Advice

I have a want these days to make myself busy.

Well what do you know if my two interests combine and I start to get some formality to the proceedings.

I wander along to my local skills.org and what they tell me is that in order to get formal qualifications.

I must know somebody in the business first before I venture forth and make what I want to do a formality.

I want to help little old ladies, yep and little young men go forth and multiply.

But I don't wanna charge them in the same way as others.

I am moving back up to Amorous Auckland in February/March 2016.

The thing is I don't know anyone in the biz and at the risk of sounding a little bit dramatic, really, I have to know someone in this business first in order to move along?

My question is, what do I do?







c Share Investor 2015

Cream Always Rises

If your me, lets begin this diatribe with a warning. Your going to get busted around the head about what to do, what not to do and how to do it.

This is coming from a place that can very few can come from, essentially death.

I almost bought the big one in February 6 2012 and the first 6 months after that has got to be the hardest I have ever spent on this planet.

The point is I am still not working and together with my allotment of stocks and some state help I am managing.

It will not be until next year when my dear ex-wife will try to pry my daughter from cold wet dead hands that my portfolio really gets a rinsing.

That is surely when it gets to test its mettle.

When its down.

Well so far the portfolio has provided 3 years of income and Ive even managed to BUY one thing - 1000 Contact Energy Ltd for $4.85 and once again it is related to my ex-wife - she works there.

(Watch the CEO Dennis Barnes he's a great guy, I believe he's going to make this company great-the people that are surrounding him, he's got Transpower on his sights.)

Well, when you buy at the correct time - the correct time is not now - you buy value.

When I bought Fisher &Paykel Healthcare in January 2012 it was the right time to buy. It actually got cheaper, $1.86, but at $2.15 I got it. I sort of wanted it to get cheaper than $1.86 but it wasn't going to be.

I watched this stock like a hawk for YEARS, I had aready bought 5000 because I was aware of the quality of the company, but I literally spent years waiting for this stock to become a bargain.

And It did, and it has become one of the rising stars of my portfolio, and looks set to become a superstar in the many years to come.

I wouldn't buy it now. I would wait. It will happen again, the stockmarket WILL tank and there you will be, buying when everyone else is selling. Just remember it will perhaps take years but as long as you have bought a good solid company (Fisher & Paykel didn't even come to the market for cash like a whole host of others did in the Great Financial Crash) it wont matter much.

Cream always rise to the surface.

The last time the stockmarket started to tank was the end of 2008 and it really didn't start getting better until sort of 2011-2012 and it has been blue skys ever since.

I'm not with your Forbes.com though I don't believe we are headed for another head turner, not just now.

The only thing you really need to concentrate on during your seach for that Apple or Google is the possible duds you might collect along the way.

My office romance has been The Warehouse.

It just hasn't made the transition to"just in time" delivery yet. Its STILL trying the thing out. While the competition has entered its earlier mode, the Warehouse really doesn't know where its at RIGHT NOW it doesn't know whether its selling online or to us.

They just haven't got it right during bad times and if you take a look down the aisles of smiles there's not many smiles anymore.

Bye bye The Warehouse Ltd.

You've just gotta keep the original basis of a few stocks FOR LIFE and change them if you really have to - like the WHS.

Stuff like the aforementioned Fisher & Paykel your Auckland Airport, Ryman Healthcare and Mainfreight is stuff I will NEVER SELL. It just continues to add value to itself.

Like others I was more interested in adding value elsewhere - Fisher & Paykel - so I didn't buy more shares in Auck Air, Ryman and Mainfreight but you as an individual identify that one company, tap into it, and ride it for all its worth.

I've got four companies I can truly be proud of, they make a positive difference in the lives of those that work for them and those that encounter them on a day to day basis.

And you're gotta be happy with that.

After all, you only get one chance.

	Toughen Up: What I've Learned About Surviving Tough Times byMichael Hill
	Think Bigger: How to Raise Your Expectations and Achieve Everythingby Michael Hill

c Share Investor 2015

Hallenstein Glasson 2015 Profit

Just back from a self imposed exile.

Wonderful.

Top of my agenda is Hallenstein Glasson Ltd [HLG.NZ].

It is top of my agenda because it has its full year 2015 profit out on Wednesday and there is much talk of oh its had its best days behind it, it wont be long before its doing its best impression of a Pumpkin Patch (a stock I once owned)or Postie Plus (again a stock I used to own). There is a difference.

The difference here is that it isn't the same. It knows that there is competition out there from the Top Shop (albeit - a bastardised version) and H & M and a whole host of others and they will be going in the shops daily to see what they are up to - trust me,they do.

The shtick is that there is competition and we are going to take it seriously.

Amongst our leading selling bits and bobs we are going to do anything to appeal.

We DO realise that things have changed and that we have to be on our toes to meet those changes as they happen.

We have been here for 135 years and we along with our cash - no debt you understand - are going to be here for another 135 (60 years of that will be with me, 12 years so far)developing in whatever way the public deems necessary.

We will change and change again.

I have had my doubts about this company but it responds in cycles. At the moment it should be going through a recovery cycle but it isn't, people have lost faith in it, that's good that it isn't because it just leaves more room for people like me to buy more - which I'm doing.

I managed to scape enough together for an additional 4000 shares, bringing my total to 14000.

I noticed they got to about- not about, exactly $3.10 before trading up recently at $3.50.

I got mine at about $3.20.

I haven't heard a thing about this Wednesdays announcement.

I haven't even heard if its good because when management usually inform the market they were unusually quiet.

Well see on Wednesday.


Hallenstein Glasson @ Share Investor

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 c Share Investor 2015

Kathmandu IPO: Prospectus Analysis

I was right about this one, took about 2 years longer to come unstuck but come unstuck it did.

Will it work with a new person? Well out of all the retailers in this part of the world id give Rod Duke 50/50.

Hes getting the company for what its worth by the way.


Right from the get go the Kathmandu IPO Prospectus (Requires free registration at Share Investor Forum to download ) is all about the flash, the sheen, the image and impact of the Kathmandu brand - at first glance the document looks more like a catalogue for their product rather than a prospectus - and to be sure the brand is part of what the present owners are selling and it is a great loyally followed brand but what of the bones, the inside, the guts of the company, how are they selling prospective investors that?

Well in short the present sellers are not telling investors the full story. Pro Forma figures - figures based on an "as if" scenario rather than reality - are used throughout the document.

Pro-forma figures do not show investors the true state of a companies books and this alone should have prospective investors running for the hills (without a Kathmandu backpack).

I will go on however.

For example pro forma sales figures from 2007 and 2009 indicate that in 2007 Kathmandu sales were $A151.4 million and in 2009 A$215 million and respective store numbers were 58 and 82. That works out roughly the same level of sales per store for each of these years. Very hard to get this sort of consistency in any sector of the economy, least the retail industry. These particular figures have clearly been manipulated or "smoothed" to make things look good and we can safely assume this for other comparisons made. This makes the figures misleading to say the very least.

It is pointless to make any further comment about the prospectus' other figures or comparisons used except to say they cannot be trusted.

Some more key points but they rank in far less import for potential investors than do the inclusion of pro forma figures to make comparisons year to year to sell the company.

1. management are more than halving their stake - not alot of faith there in the company and they are insiders!

2. $85 million in debt to be paid off - not a high figure considering indications that debt in July 2008 was more than double that.

3. IPO costs of more than $15 million, far too high.

4. Investors will not know how much their application for shares will cost them until after the IPO has closed. At NZ$2.01 - $2.32 per share a large range in price exists.

5. A major emphasis throughout the prospectus on growth through increases in store numbers - an expensive way to grow and to be fueled by more company debt or perhaps additional capital raising from shareholders.

6. Omitting financing costs and essential financial data like historical NPAT.

I was skeptical of the Kathmandu IPO before perusing the prospectus but after reading it I have come to the conclusion that this IPO is a complete and utter stinker.

Too much emphasis is on the media grabbing sexy Kathmandu brand and not enough on what is important when an investor needs to make a wise decision - full, frank and accurate financial statements and not pro forma monopoly style accounts that are only fit to wipe your bum with.

I am appalled at the gall of the present owners, the accounting firm signing off on pro-forma accounts and the NZX for allowing this kind of bullshit and calling it sufficient disclosure pre-IPO.

I could be wrong and this IPO could be the best listing since Coca Cola but investors cannot tell that from reading disclosures in the prospectus with accuracy what sort of condition Kathmandu the company is in - why are the present owners playing shell games with investors one would have to ask?

If you sink your money into this one you deserve to lose it.


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c Share Investor 2009