Thursday, November 20, 2014

Share Investor's 2015 Stock Picks

Author at beginning of year.

I think I will pick stocks this year and give readers a chance to fill in the blanks yourselves.

Apart from the fact that the NZX 50 is up around 900 points to finish at 5530 today, you would have to say the index shows our market has been way overbought and is due for a correction, how much and when is a little harder to define.

That may also not happen, if America keeps on with its wacky ways.

With this in mind here we go.


Fisher and Paykel Healthcare

Quite high at the moment but long term readers will know I've picked this every year since I started this.

Give it a miss at these prices if you want to invest - it will get cheaper. But if your one of those short termers its worth grabbing. Will go north of $6.00.


Sky City Entertainment

This is the year I'm picking for this wonderful stock, it has almost paid for itself in 13 short/long years, divs.

I'm picking it to finally deliver in the last part of 2015. Momentum will see this stock in the high 5s.


The Warehouse Group

I'm picking this stock, because I have a hunch its dec statement to us, the public, will be a good one and its sales figures out in Jan will be more of the same. It is likely that a turn around has come.

Cross fingers.


Mainfreight Ltd

I picked this stock because of its ability to stick to its knitting, get the job done, and bring in the results.

Time after time.

2015 will be an outstanding year for the company.

Contact Energy

2015 will be a good year for Contact.

Although 2015 - 17 will be restrained in terms of demand, their supply will rewarded with historical lows in terms of cost of production.

Management have signalled either buy back, special div or higher divs for now and into the future.


Ryman Healthcare Ltd

This stock amazes me.

While it was languishing in the high 20s that's $1.20 during the financial crises of 2008 - 2011 it hardly rated a mention, I was buying it then (first disclosure).

It was making record profits then.

Now it and its sisters are making headlines once a week, how hot is the property market right now.

This will take off once the most recent profit result is known - this Friday 21 Nov.

Get it while you can.


Auckland Airport

This company is well on the road to earning the big bucks.

It wasn't long ago, 4 years ago, that it was making 100m, now it will do close to twice that.

Ain't going to have any competition, not while I'm or my daughters alive.

I see nothing but growth for this one, get on and fly.



Hallenstein Glasson Holdings

A brief one which I've traded 4x before that goes in cycles the way that it always has.

Management are aware things change - they have been in the clothing biz for over 100 years and know where it at, that is why I don't mind holding. They are a good company.

They are near the bottom once again and by most they appear to be making there way to the top again.


Heartland New Zealand

This one I picked last year @ 80 something cents.

I pick It again next year as it looks set to expand and grow revenue and profit.
Something tells me that this is a dark horse.

A Xero, in the making if you like, except this company makes a profit and has got a clear purpose.

Get it now for big future gains.


NZ Refining

NZ Refining is a cyclical stock and at present its in the low part of the cycle.

1.97 per share is cheap when one considers your buying 2.05 of NTA.

Get in while you can on good long term - 2 plus years - gain.


Trademe Group

If you can get this around $4.00 you could earn almost a buck a share next year.

It looks set to consolidate next reporting season, perhaps a we bit up and grow slightly during 2015.

Not a share I would own for a long time, has no future, but good to get in and out of on its way down to zero.

Team Talk

This one has been on my watchlist for years.

Its on the small-cap index.

Principally because of its dividend, which has been 2x 10c for long as I can remember but has recently come down to 7.5c x 2. The company say it will stay that way all of next year.

The share price has come down by more than the cost of the div making this a good long term bet to take off once it sees an improvement in bus.

Any improvement in the biz would see the div raised.

Air NZ

Just one last one to tempt the weak and perhaps make the very same strong if they hold onto this one to long.

If you can get this at 2.15 per share you should be good for the rest of 2015.
The running costs are going down and patronage is up.

Beautiful!

It will not last forever.


Warning

What not to buy!

At the time of writing this addition 19.12.14 11.30am the stock that I've got to mention is XRO. It is at $15.70 at time of writing and is set to make further slippages in 2015. It reached a high of over $45 and some and is many years away from making a profit - if at all. It has been 6.5 years on the NZX.

Stay away.



Conclusion 

As I said in the brief intro I think the index looks a little shaky.

I see a brief upswing in the new year then a tapering off throughout the year.

But we are talking a new reality, markets aren't going down like they should do.

America is doing things with its dollar that we haven't seen before and suffering the consequences - the market is going up not down.

The economy is lulling itself into a false sense of security, its not letting out the bung, it just continues to stuff it with continued monetary expansion.

O.k, I'll leave it there.

Except to say, they - America - cannot let the bung out, to do so would jeopardize world markets.



* As an addendum, the stocks from  Fisher and Paykel to Hallensteins are stocks in the share investors portfolio and are included because they are the bomb.

The rest are very worthy additions.


An Alternative to that biased, joke that is Sharetrader.


www.shareinvestorforum.com


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c Share Investor 2014, 2015




Tuesday, November 18, 2014

Ex All Black, with Name Suppression, Gets Named

Image result for Graham Thorne.


The man who was discharged and never allowed to be known is former Allblack Grahame Thorne.

His discharge was at the middle of this year.

The guy responsible for naming him is Tau Henare

Detail of his offending can be found here.

www.humanheadline.com.au/hinch-says/justice-denied---again


c darrenrickard 2014





Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Hubbard to blame for collapse of South Canterbury Finance.


Well it is official. All that he said, she said.

Allan Hubbard is to blame for the collapse of South Canterbury Finance.

All that time and money spent on following that dear old sod finally paid off.

We finally got there.

He is guilty.

You cant get him to pay for what he did, and im not sure you could given the ineffectiveness of our justice system.

BUT at least you got the blame pointed at who was responsible.

Allan Hubbard.


Allan Hubbard Saga


Full SFO Statement on SCF Fraud Investigation
Hubbard Letter to Simon Power
Download Grant Thornton Report 1
Download Grant Thornton Report 2
Download Grant Thornton Report 3
Download Grant Thornton Report 4
Download Grant Thornton Report 5
Download Grant Thornton Report 6
Download Grant Thornton Report 7 - Aorangi Securities
Download Grant Thornton Report 7 - Hubbard Management Funds

Join the Put Allan Hubbard Away Facebook Group

Allan Hubbard Saga: Does death mean the End?
Allan Hubbard Saga: 7th Grant Thornton Report - Hubbard Management Funds
Allan Hubbard Saga: 7th Grant Thornton Report - Aorangi Securities
GUEST POST: Deborah Hill Cone: NZ - crazy people, crazy place
Allan Hubbard Saga: When Monkeys Attack!
Allan Hubbard Saga: Victims Share Stories
Allan Hubbard Saga: The Defence
Allan Hubbard Saga: Fraud Charges - The Detail
Allan Hubbard Saga: Hubbard to Face Fraud Charges
Adam Feely on Hubbard Fraud Charges
Allan Hubbard Saga: Answers to Investor's Frequently Asked Questions
Allan Hubbard Saga: Still Feral After All These Years
Allan Hubbard Saga: Sixth Grant Thornton Report
Allan Hubbard Saga: Hubbard looks set to cop a plea
Allan Hubbard Saga: Supporters Risk Legal Action
Allan Hubbard Saga: Mental Challenge
Allan Hubbard Saga: Hubbard Defiant in 2011
Book Review: Allan Hubbard: Man Out of Time, by Virginia Green
Allan Hubbard Saga: VIDEO - Hubbard Biographer Virginia Green on TVNZ's Breakfast
Book Extract - Allan Hubbard: Man Out of Time
Allan Hubbard Saga: Going Feral - Part 3, The Final Cut
Allan Hubbard Saga: Going Feral - Part 2
Allan Hubbard Saga: Paul Carruthers Goes Feral... Again
Allan Hubbard: The Biography
Allan Hubbard Saga: On Forged Signatures and Uncharitable Trusts
Allan Hubbard Saga: Evidence of Fraud now Clear
Allan Hubbard Saga: NBR VS the SFO
Allan Hubbard Saga: South Canterbury Finance to be investigated by the SFO
Allan Hubbard Saga: Third Grant Thornton Report
Allan Hubbard Saga: Will He Walk?
Allan Hubbard Saga: No Longer Bothered by Botherway
Allan Hubbard Saga: 60 Minutes Interview, Sept 23 2010
Allan Hubbard Saga: Supporters head to the exit door
Allan Hubbard Saga: Threats & the Mysterious PWC Report
Allan Hubbard Supporters: Conflict of Interest
VW Veneer reveals BMW heart
VIDEO: Jenni McManus Explains Allan Hubbard Collapse
Allan Hubbard Statement on SCF Receivership
VIDEO: Sandy Maier - full news conference on SCF Receivership
Market Alert: South Canterbury Finance to be placed in Receivership
Allan Hubbard: Ignorant Supporters Blissfully Unaware
Thornton Report 2: Allan Hubbard Guilty as Charged
Allan Hubbard: Full TV3 Interview - July 16 2010
Thornton Report 1: Allan Hubbard's Aorangi Securities
Bothered by Simon Botherway


c Share Investor 2014







Thursday, September 18, 2014

Thoughts before 20th September 2014

I just wanted to add a little piece of work before the election , just to get my head on straight.

This will be my first political piece before the election post my February 6 2012 incident, so bare with me.

I have already voted, 2 ticks blue as I have done for the last 5 elections.

I come from a Labour household, where they supposedly, looked after the working man.

My first 2 votes were for labour. I have grown up since then.

I could never vote for Labour again, unless they changed their high tax, high spending ways.

National are not my perfect idea for a political party, but they are the closest.

All the other parties, except ACT want an intrusion into your and your loved ones lives. I don't want to vote for ACT because, we'll I can't, they don't have a representative in the Hawkesbay.

The perfect party would want a much smaller role in the daily lives of everyone. Through business, social, and all aspects of life.

The main reason I'm voting National are their tax policies.

Labour want to introduce 5 new taxes and for that they are to be lambasted.

One I want to briefly talk about is their CGT.

They say they want to bring it in because it's fair, because it's in every OCED bar two, because it will put a stranglehold on property prices.?

What?

Apart from the fact that their Spokeperson for finance can't explain it properly - really it would be hard for the most intelligent person explain it and he is no slouch in the brain department.

The fact is it is complicated.

In Australia, we're it was introduced in the mid 80s it was responsible for making the IRD increase in size BY a THIRD.

It's didn't do anything to house prices.

If you want to make our government even larger, complicate the tax system and put a drag on the economy. All taxes are a drag, no taxes are good, or fair or stimulate growth.

They have the opposite effect.


c darrenrickard 2014