Monday, July 27, 2020

Sky City: Covid-19 The Aftermath

The Sky Tower, Auckland - License, download or print for £12.40 ...

I have been a holder of Sky City shares for 20 years. 

In that time I have seen the company expand and grow with profit and revenue steadily increasing but not to the extent it did in the early noughties.

In the same time there were a lot of red hearings in terms of investments; The cinema, Darwin and a whole host of other failed experiments - some of them big some of them not so big.

I believe currently they have the mix about right. With their two sites in Adelaide and Auckland and a commercial - currently - online business.

HOWEVER, they have this #covid19 business to deal with also.

I believe that once again this remains on track and that all business will come back to #precovid19 levels. When is another question. We wont cover that here because there are far too many variables AND it will take a long time. 2 plus years.

In the mean time I believe that management are talking about a "much smaller" localized versions on both sides of the Tasman. That is, largely free from the tourist trade at the beginning. That means down on the tourist sector dollar from their hotels to their hospitality. 

But this means targeting a "new" punter, the local. 

AND that's easy. You just give the local punter enough incentive to get out there and spend. AND they will. Even with the coming recession. 

Their coming announcement out yest for the 2020 profit has been delayed approx 1 month and will be announced at the beginning of Sept. 

In it expect the usual #covid19 response that other companies will announce but in it also will be the nuggets of truth around what direction SKC will take us over the next few years of rebuilding. 

Just as an addendum: I believe you - businesses - have to treat #covid19 as another business. With all its competitive natures currently to the fore. Only then will you begin to spud off new shoots and grow again. 

Sky City Entertainment Group @ Share Investor

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Share Investor Q & A: Sky City CEO, Nigel Morrison
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Sky City Convention Centre Expansion a Money loser

Discuss SKC @ Share Investor Forum

Tuesday, December 17, 2019

Share Investor's 2020 Stock Picks ;)

We have cut back on expense for next years "pick".

Welcome back to the stock picking monkey for 2020's.

This years picking is a little diff in that there will be no stock picks.

It has kind of run its course and ill tell you why if you be so kind to listen.

What is a stock pick but really an advert for yourself to pick whatever you want based on various methods.

I don't want to do that anymore, I see it as not helpful at all.

I would rather you pick the stock based on what you have learnt either through me or some other means.

The following para is an addendum. 

Except perhaps one stock - ill let you do the research - which I see as highly undervalued and that is where perhaps stock pickers come into their own picking undervalued stocks. I am going to pick one. Sky City Entertainment. It is ripe for the picking. Anything that you can buy at less than $4 is a steal. Hope I picked well Cameron Boyd ;0

So let me finish this year by thanking everyone for joining up at Share Investor and Ill finish on about what might happen next year. 

I see President Trump playing a big part in many portfolios - surprise, surprise.

I see the NZ dollar weaken.

I see bull markets to continue based on what we know so far and other indicators that are too numerous to mention.

I see interest rates drift lower (see above)

I see oil start to rise.

Gold the same.

Property in Auckland - rise. (Any monkey can pick that!)

Love as always to Soph & Jacks  💓

Share Investor's Annual Stock Picks

Share Investor  2019

Wednesday, November 20, 2019

Buy For Yield!!

Like some of my stocks have gone up WAY out of proportion to their "importance" but one stock that I recently said sell I have to now give a buy because it has come down in price for one reason and that is because of the Tiwai Point fiasco

It came down from the early 9's to the mid 6's and dropping. 

i wouldn't be at all surprised to see it cross the ditch to land up in the high 5's.

Paying almost 6% net at current prices - not forecast to lower this years payout - this one is a steal right now. 

You could get it cheaper but history says you might not - especially given today's low interest rates.

For seasoned short term sellers and long term holders.

CEN @ Share Investor

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 2018 Share Investor Stock Picks
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Share Investor's 2009 Stock Picks
Follow the Monopoly Board

Discuss this stock at Share Investor  

c Share Investor 2019

Wednesday, October 30, 2019

Fisher and Paykel Healthcare Group: Sell

With the prospect of this stock ticking over to $20 and providing the portfolio a ten bagger - minus divs over 8/16 years. Fisher and Paykel Healthcare is getting more than a bit too expensive.

It currently sits at a tad over a 51 P.E. - which is too expensive but its holding up because it hasn't disappointed the market for about 7 years and look set to continue this stellar run for many more years but there is one thing that would stop this baby from climbing. I've said it before, ill say it again. A rise in the KIWI/US dollar.

Every 1 cent diff is $3m NZ +/- . So it is not insignificant the machinations between these two highly traded currencies because most of FPH business is done in the US dollar. 

Added to this is the prospect one day and it will happen, FPH will have a bad year. Everyone is aware of this but nobody will bat an eyelid as this thing lurches from one high to the next the plain fact is this is highly susceptible to a re - rating should FPH step out of line - it has happened once before since listing in 2001.

When this happens - because any downside will be temporary - is the time to cut the profits elsewhere in your portfolio and plunk as much down as you can on this one.

FPH has patents right up the wazoo and will be busy fulfilling these. They currently employ up to $NZ125m a year next year or 9% of turnover on research and development so that patent Que is is only going to get bigger.

I will not be selling the large number of shares that I hold.

If I do ill tell ya.

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare @ Share Investor

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd: Where is it Going?
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd:  Should I Buy Now?
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd: The Time to Buy
Share Investor's 2012 Stock Picks
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Resmed takes market share from Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Resmed kicking Fisher & Paykel Heathcares butt?
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Share Investor's 2009 stock picks
Fisher & Paykel: A tale of two companies
FPH downgrade masks good performance

Discuss Fisher & Paykel Healthcare @ Share Investor 

Share Investor 2019