Tuesday, January 12, 2016

Some bedtime reading: Graham and Dodd's "Security Analysis"



I am in the process of re-reading David Dodd and Benjamin Graham's 1934 bible on investing.

Security Analysis.


It deserves a re-read after a life changing event like a stroke and from what I have read so far it kind of reinforces the conclusions I came to before heading down its 725 pages.

This 725 page giant of a book was written at a time where the global economy was in a depression brought on by the over exuberant roaring 20s and the subsequent 1929 stockmarket crash.

This book was initially looked at when were going through what they call, 'The Great Recession' in 2008 - you fill in your year for the finish.

It has had several updates since its original edition and is often hard to come by in your local bookstore. A sixth edition was out in 2008, when I originally wrote this. I wanted to read the original book to get a feeling for the markets and general investment outlook of the time. Its relation to today's market conditions is still important to me.

From the Amazon preview of the first edition of Security Analysis:


The original words of Benjamin Graham and David Dodd--put to paper not long after the disastrous Stock Market Crash of 1929--still have the mesmerizing qualities of rigorous honesty and diligent scrutiny, the same riveting power of disciplined thought and determined logic that gave the work its first distinction and began its illustrious career.

In their preface to this book, Graham and Dodd write that they hope their work "will stand the test of the ever enigmatic future." There is no doubt that it has.


Now I have other books on my reading list but I want to tackle this one first, principally because it was the text that Warren Buffett based much of his investing style on and as my regular readers know I am a Warren Buffett nut.

I have already read Benjamin Graham's The Intelligent Investor but I felt I needed a more detailed analysis of his investment style and his and Dodd's Security Analysis tome fits that bill to a tee.

Many stockbrokers in the past have used Security Analysis to go back to in times of doubt, and given current market turmoil investors might be wise to start reading.

It is clear the majority of stockbrokers in the United States and in other global markets haven't even turned a page of this essential investment tool and I know that is more than the case in New Zealand stockbroker circles.

My local ASB Securities broker said what? when I asked him during a related conversation if he had even heard of the book! Even The Intelligent Investor was another language to him.

You can get a physical copy of the book from the Share Investor Bookstore or download it free here.



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Thursday, January 7, 2016

AIA: To Buy Now Or Not To?

Airport_Low

Would you buy Auckland Airport shares right now?

That is a very good question considering the first half profit will be announced next month you would have to say leave it to the other side of this announcement.

You would also have to say what about China whats it doing?

Well as far as the announcement is concerned that is going to be a good one for share holders - north of $80 mill for the half and that is more than likely going to boost the share price to past $6.

So the second question is worth looking at because it is a good one.

Is it worth waiting until the shite hits China then buy up or risk the share going up in price.

I bought my shares at 1.70, 1.50 and - 1.90, I think. I bought the during the depths of the great recession and they have turned out to be by best investment.

They have returned over 600% and my only regret is that I didn't buy 40,000.

SO, what are they going to do?

Well I can give you two pieces of advice because you are the one putting money on the line.

You can buy now with the inevitability that you are going to see similar returns (over 600%) or be patient (or if you think the China thing is another bubble you wont have to wait long) and wait it out till the stock-market has a correction (its not overvalued if you compare the income your getting from stocks to interest from the bank/having an investment house but long term it is overvalued on P.E ratios and a number of other financial ratios. )  

I going to stay shtuck (my google dictionary says that is not a word)on this for now and let you decide.


Whatever your decision it will be interesting.



AIA @ Share Investor

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Tuesday, January 5, 2016

Sky City: Time to Show Your Hand - and Our Money.

Image result for sky city hotel

Nigel Morrison must be in two minds at the moment.

On the one hand we are doing well, on the other he is about to change the look of the company forever.

What is he doing with our money?

I say our money because it is our money.

Shareholders.

Their hand has been pretty much shown in the fact that 1 billion plus has been laid out and the first of the returns from it are about to come in this reporting period of Feb 11 2016.

I was reading the 3 quarters year about revenue and profit in October 2015 (cant remember where but I read it) and I read that Nigel Morrison was "extremely satisfied" with results. That's accountant speak for seriously happy - so were in for a good result.

What well look for is some serious revenue increases in Adelaide, Auckland, Hamilton, Queenstown and perhaps Darwin.

The accompanied figures will be the profits. They must show an increase and a propensity to increase as money is spent (the part I mentioned above - 1 billion).

They should continue to increase from here (with a few ups and downs).

I'm not sure were the additional tables games and slots come into play - they could be there already - so we could just start in the new year.  



Sky City Convention Centre @ Share Investor

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Saturday, January 2, 2016

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare; 2016 : A Time to Spend


The blue and white breathing circuit, made by Fisher & Paykel.


Fisher & Paykel Healthcare.

Well,  the first thing you can imagine is I hope as a share it does well.

I do.

Secondly you would have to hope it does well as a company.

I do.

I have so much faith in this company and I will tell you why.

They have put lots of money into research, approx.70 million in 2015 and even more in 2016. That is the secret to their success, by continuing to use money made in the business, they provide an even greater return.

As long as they do this and never ever cut back on money put into the business it will continue to do well.

However if you see money put into research as a percentage of revenue lower, it wont take much longer than 16 months to 2 years before you start to see things go the other way.

So its important that you watch the bottom line.



Fisher & Paykel Healthcare @ Share Investor

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