Share Price Alert: Mainfreight Ltd

Mainfreight Ltd [MFT.NZX] is a stock you should be looking out for if you are a short termer and thinking of bailing.

It has added around $1.40 per share or 20% in a mere 3 months to close at $8.39 yesterday. Just a few cents short of an all-time high set last week. This is appears to be on the strength of a good 2011 1st half year where trading results were significantly higher than the previous comparable half.

Of course this increase was made on a particularly bad 2010 half year so we must take this into account when looking at the spectacular rise in the MFT share price.

My only conclusions for the rise are two-fold.

1: Investors have rediscovered the quality management of the company, especially the way they have managed the business over the last 3 very tough years.

2: The market is expecting a good rise in profit for the 3rd quarter, with the announcement coming out late Feb.

Either way though the momentum in share price built up over the last year where the swing has been from around $5.75 to present levels looks difficult to sustain given the absence of further positive news.

Look for a pull-back in share price if MFT disappoints the market in any way and consider locking in profits now if you are a short to medium term investor.

If you are a long-term investor you should wait for a pull back to enter this stock.


Disc I own MFT shares in the Share Investor Portfolio

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c Share Investor 2011

Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 7 February 2011

The Share Investor Portfolio was back up in the first week of February. The portfolio was up 0.89% or $2487.95 on the Jan 31 update . For the first 5 weeks of 2011 the portfolio has increased by 3.3% or $9178.27. This weeks rise was due, primarily, to a 5c rise in SKC, the biggest part of the portfolio and MFT continued to rise another 20c on market optimism that they are doing much better.

The total of unspent dividends in the bank from the 2010 earnings year is $16631.93 at close of reporting season for 2010. There are also approx $50000.00 in tax credits earned from the portfolio since it began in late 2002.

Share Investor Portfolio as at 17:30:00, Friday 04 February, 2011 (NZDT)

Stock	Quantity	Cost price	Total cost	Market price	Market value	Change	%
AIA	2,000	$1.700	$3,400.00	$2.240	$4,480.00	$1,080.00	31.76%
AIA	2,000	$1.510	$3,020.00	$2.240	$4,480.00	$1,460.00	48.34%
AIA	803	$2.150	$1,726.45	$2.240	$1,798.72	$72.27	4.19%
AIA	445	$0.000	$0.00	$2.240	$996.80	$996.80
AIA	64	$1.650	$105.60	$2.240	$143.36	$37.76	35.76%
ASBPB	2,946	$0.000	$0.00	$0.715	$2,106.39	$2,106.39
ASBPB	7,054	$1.000	$7,054.00	$0.715	$5,043.61	$2,010.39	28.50%
BGR	438	$0.000	$0.00	$1.360	$595.68	$595.68
BGR	2,562	$0.990	$2,536.38	$1.360	$3,484.32	$947.94	37.37%
FBU	266	$0.000	$0.00	$8.040	$2,138.64	$2,138.64
FBU	848	$9.750	$8,268.00	$8.040	$6,817.92	$1,450.08	17.54%
FPH	3,000	$2.350	$7,050.00	$3.200	$9,600.00	$2,550.00	36.17%
FPH	541	$0.000	$0.00	$3.200	$1,731.20	$1,731.20
FPH	1,459	$3.720	$5,427.48	$3.200	$4,668.80	$758.68	13.98%
FRE	1,882	$0.000	$0.00	$3.200	$6,022.40	$6,022.40
FRE	6,749	$3.630	$24,498.87	$3.200	$21,596.80	$2,902.07	11.85%
GFF	541	$0.000	$0.00	$1.640	$887.24	$887.24
GFF	1,459	$2.330	$3,399.47	$1.640	$2,392.76	$1,006.71	29.61%
HLG	244	$0.000	$0.00	$3.860	$941.84	$941.84
HLG	756	$2.530	$1,912.68	$3.860	$2,918.16	$1,005.48	52.57%
KIP	190	$0.000	$0.00	$1.000	$190.00	$190.00
KIP	810	$1.480	$1,198.80	$1.000	$810.00	$388.80	32.43%
MFT	1,000	$7.960	$7,960.00	$8.370	$8,370.00	$410.00	5.15%
MFT	1,838	$8.000	$14,704.00	$8.370	$15,384.06	$680.06	4.63%
MFT	657	$0.000	$0.00	$8.370	$5,499.09	$5,499.09
MFT	1,505	$4.200	$6,321.00	$8.370	$12,596.85	$6,275.85	99.29%
MHI	1,646	$0.860	$1,415.56	$0.890	$1,464.94	$49.38	3.49%
MHI	7,000	$0.630	$4,410.00	$0.890	$6,230.00	$1,820.00	41.27%
MHI	718	$0.000	$0.00	$0.890	$639.02	$639.02
MHI	636	$1.050	$667.80	$0.890	$566.04	$101.76	15.24%
PPG	31	$0.000	$0.00	$0.260	$8.06	$8.06
PPG	1,500	$0.440	$660.00	$0.260	$390.00	$270.00	40.91%
PPG	1,004	$0.800	$803.20	$0.260	$261.04	$542.16	67.50%
PPL	1,000	$3.090	$3,090.00	$1.470	$1,470.00	$1,620.00	52.43%
PPL	1,000	$2.870	$2,870.00	$1.470	$1,470.00	$1,400.00	48.78%
PPL	939	$4.200	$3,943.80	$1.470	$1,380.33	$2,563.47	65.00%
PPL	877	$0.000	$0.00	$1.470	$1,289.19	$1,289.19
PPL	1,184	$1.530	$1,811.52	$1.470	$1,740.48	$71.04	3.92%
RYM	459	$0.000	$0.00	$2.400	$1,101.60	$1,101.60
RYM	4,586	$1.970	$9,034.42	$2.400	$11,006.40	$1,971.98	21.83%
SKC	5,750	$7.430	$42,722.50	$3.340	$19,205.00	$23,517.50	55.05%
SKC	1,000	$7.600	$7,600.00	$3.340	$3,340.00	$4,260.00	56.05%
SKC	2,750	$7.700	$21,175.00	$3.340	$9,185.00	$11,990.00	56.62%
SKC	1,431	$8.750	$12,521.25	$3.340	$4,779.54	$7,741.71	61.83%
SKC	25,085	$0.000	$0.00	$3.340	$83,783.90	$83,783.90
SKC	899	$4.720	$4,243.28	$3.340	$3,002.66	$1,240.62	29.24%
STU	78	$0.000	$0.00	$2.300	$179.40	$179.40
STU	322	$4.740	$1,526.28	$2.300	$740.60	$785.68	51.48%
WHS	4,500	$3.730	$16,785.00	$3.640	$16,380.00	$405.00	2.41%
WHS	6,979	$6.000	$41,874.00	$3.640	$25,403.56	$16,470.44	39.33%
WHS	2,880	$0.000	$0.00	$3.640	$10,483.20	$10,483.20
WHS	641	$3.710	$2,378.11	$3.640	$2,333.24	$44.87	1.89%

19.92%

	Total cost	Market value	Change
	$278,114.45	$333,527.84	$55,413.39

Share Investor Portfolio @ Share Investor

Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 31 January 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 24 January 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 17 January 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 10 January 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 3 January 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 27 December 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 20 December 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 13 December 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 6 December 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 29 November 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 22 November 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 15 November 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 8 November 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 1 November 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 25 October 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 18 October 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 11 October 2010
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c Share Investor 2011

Share Price Alert: Tourism Holdings Ltd

The profit warning for Tourism Holdings Ltd [THL.NZX] out yesterday is par for the course for this company. It has a long history of overpromising and under-delivering then making excuses for doing so.

They are blaming natural disasters in this part of the world for a slow-down in bookings and also snow in Britain preventing people from booking holidays - I think they have the internet there don't they?

If you have invested in THL at higher prices I am sorry to hear that but don't expect results to consistently improve while current management are heading the operation.

Basically they suck!

This is why.

As I pointed out in July last year this company is so badly managed it is worth much more broken up than as a functioning company. Back then its net tangible asset backing was $1.37 per share and it was trading at about 75c per share. It now has an asset backing of $1.31 at 59c per share after dropping 20% yesterday on the bad news.

These are company valuations of their assets so you could probably remove a good 30c per share just to be safe in this climate of low prices for assets.

The kicker with the profit warning is that the company will be in breach of its banking covenants at the early part of this year, something that Bruce Sheppard pointed out was being risked mid 2009.

It is anyone's guess what might happen next but if the bank doesn't see the company improving in 2011 they could well be tempted to pull the plug.

In that case of course shareholders are well down the line of creditors.

If this doesn't happen the company could well be attractive to a buyer of all or part of the company's assets.

At 59c per share it maybe well worth a punt.

Having said that there will provably be more share price weakness as the company moves into the slower part of its business year during the Winter months.

Look to buy on a lower share price for an outside punt that could pay off well.

Not for the long term.


Share Price Alert

Goodman Fielder Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
NZ Refining Ltd
Freightways Ltd
Xero Ltd


Tourism Holdings @ Share Investor

Tourism Holdings worth more broken up
Long Term View: Tourism Holdings Ltd
2011 World Cup Fever

Discuss THL @ Share Investor Forum






c Share Investor 2011

Ministry of Silly Walks

You may have heard or seen the Monty Python Sketch "Ministry of Silly Walks".

It is of course comedy and lampoons politicians and bureaucrats.

Well little did you know is that in NZ we have a commissioner of silly walks. He would command northwards of $200,000.00 and said this about a $11,000.00 "fact finding" tour overseas to see how other people walked.

"That's what you get from talking to individuals ... you can read their annual reports, which I did, but it doesn't give you the personal views and feelings of where things are at, the soft information and that's been very helpful"

Apart form the fact that there shouldn't be a ministry of silly walks has Mark Neeson not heard of the telephone?

New Zealand has countless numbers of these drop kick commissions, most of which you would have you rolling your eyeballs over the nonsense of them.

They all have heads making serious six figure incomes and also staff, offices and the attendant expenses.

Mr Neeson seems to take it all in his stride though.

Perhaps if we all developed silly walks with the help of a taxpayer grant we might be able to forget a particular recession we are having, which isn't that funny at all.

NEW - From Fishpond.co.nz | Think Bigger, By Michael Hill

c Darren Rickard 2011