Share Investor

Thursday, October 7, 2010

Share Investor Portfolio: Spring Stock Picks

Tuesday, October 5, 2010

Is Joris De Bres' Racially Biased?

I am slightly amused by the big fuss made over wind up comments about Anand Satyanand made by TVNZ Breakfast host Paul Henry on his show yesterday. It really is a non story but it is being twisted by the sniveling left wing media because there is no alternative "news".

What really grabs me by the balls and gives them a big yank though is the response by the bloated Race Relations Commissioner Doris de Bres.

Henry apologised to the sensitive wee things that were offended but that wasn't good enough for Doris.

Doris said:

"...the apology was not good enough, and should be aimed at all New Zealanders.

"When you say, 'I'm sorry if I offended you', it makes it sound as though the person who was offended is at fault..."

When Hone Harawera called white folk "white motherfuckers" earlier this year Doris said this was part of his freedom of expression and was "....just Hone being Hone..." he sure is one cheeky little darkie ah bro!!

Hone apologised to any offense that might have been caused but also qualified that by saying the "sentiment" of his words he stood by.

I am not bothered by either Henry's comment or Haraweras, it is merely someones opinion and we can judge them based on that but get a grip on your taxpayer funded gravy train Doris!

If you are going to be given half a million a year to sit and pontificate, and get fat and lazy, at least look like you are being fair when you make your pathetic, racially biased decisions.

c Darren Rickard 2010

Friday, October 1, 2010

Allan Hubbard Saga: Third Grant Thornton Report reveals more dirt

With the release of the third Grant Thornton Report today the public has got a much better view of what Allan Hubbard and his fellow directors have been up to over at the now defunct Aorangi Securities, Hubbard Management Funds and numerous other business entities put into statutory management a few months ago.

While Thornton Reports 1 and 2 outlined the main points at issue in the case against Allan Hubbard, Report 3 gives us the detail and further evidence. Unfortunately because of the way Allan Hubbard eschewed paperwork, much of the detail has yet to come forth and may not be revealed at all, as there are simply no records on many loans and we would have to rely on the generosity of borrowers to put their hands up and identify themselves. Really who is going to do that.

What we see in the third report are the following main points:

* Aorangi previously advanced Southbury Group Limited (“Southbury”) the sum of $10 million. Southbury’s principal asset appears to be its interest in South Canterbury Finance Limited. Since the last Thornton Report South Canterbury Finance has been placed in receivership. The consequence of that is that Aorangi's investment in Southbury Group is unlikely to be recovered.

* Most assets held by the various entities in Statutory Management have been well overvalued.

* Accounts are either missing, were never in place or confusing.

* The possibility exists for a 23c return on the dollar to investors in Aorangi sometime in the future.

*Securities and assets were used as security for 3rd parties that had interrelated ties and therefore material to other investors easily getting their money back.

* Investments made by Hubbard were high risk, high return.

* Most assets were highly illiquid and therefore had to cash up when needed by investors.

* The majority of shares held were of the unlisted variety which are difficult to sell, especially in a depressed market.

* Many loans made inter-party were given security from other Hubbard related business entities - highly risky

* Hubbard Management Funds made big loans to Allan Hubbard's private businesses.

The worst part of this report reveals in more detail that Allan Hubbard built his investments on the foundations of a very large interrelated domino game. That is to say loans were made here, to related businesses there and if one fell, as they did months ago, the other had the distinct possibility of falling as well.

The other poor reflection on Hubbard was his lax and illegal accounting practices. No paperwork for some loans and he relied on his borrowers to be honest and pay back this and that whenever they could! Now that is not "old fashioned business done with a handshake" as he calls it, and his supporters would back up, it is plain and simple stupidity and very high risk. Old fashioned business did do business with a handshake but they always did the paperwork.

So much for looking after peoples money like it was his.

I am of the view now that the statutory managers have uncovered enough facts -as they are - to pass on their findings, the relevant information to the appropriate regulatory bodies, including the Serious Fraud Office, as to enable prosecution of Mr Hubbard and whoever else was involved in his various financial shell games. I am not confident that Mr Hubbard and his fellow travelers will get their just deserts but at least now charges can be brought and we can see the process proceed from here.

Meanwhile the Serious Fraud Office is finalising its second interim report over the fraud case against Hubbard and multiple business entities and would be considering three options: charging Mr Hubbard, continuing the investigation, or closing it.

Another report from Grant Thornton will be released at the end of October and it is likely to be the forth of many more to come.

Stock of the Week - Reprise 4: Contact Energy Ltd

If you have been following the share price of Contact Energy Ltd [CEN.NZX] over the last few years you would have noticed a good short-term trading pattern that many have exploited to make some fast money. Since March 2009 the share price has been up and down like a cheap K-Rd hooker on multiple occasions, ranging between around $5.50 at its lows to around $6.50 at its highs. (see chart above)

Since April 2010 though the stock has been trading at the lower end of this range and seems to be marking time for whatever reason.

If you look at the historical 10 year chart below you will see that the last time this stock settled at any share price range for an extended period was back in 2000-2001.

The historical nature of this stock is for it to keep climbing in share price.

Conclusion?

The market seems to be hanging back and waiting to see some news, either good or bad, that will move the share price in the appropriate direction.

As I have already said, CEN stock really has been marking time since March 2009 when the aforementioned trading pattern began but the tighter trading range of the last 6 months or so really has made this stock worth watching closely.

For those of you wanting this stock for the long term it will perform well and the probability that its majority owned Australian parent Origin Energy Ltd [ORG.ASX] will make a takeover move will be icing on the cake. Its current share price would make a move by the long termers a wise one.

On the other hand if you are one of those short term traders that have made money on this stock since early 2009 beware that the trading pattern has been broken and you could well see a dip below the $5.50 floor.

Happy investing!

Contact Energy @ Share Investor

Stock of the Week - Reprise 3: Contact Energy Ltd
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Not so fast Davy Boy
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Share Investor's 2009 Stock Picks
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Discuss this stock at Share Investor Forum - Register free

c Share Investor 2010

Share Investor

Thursday, October 7, 2010

Share Investor Portfolio: Spring Stock Picks

Tuesday, October 5, 2010

Is Joris De Bres' Racially Biased?

Friday, October 1, 2010

Allan Hubbard Saga: Third Grant Thornton Report reveals more dirt

Stock of the Week - Reprise 4: Contact Energy Ltd

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