Sunday, January 6, 2008

Share Investor's 2008 Stock Picks

As the price of gas to starts to reach for the stars, fixed mortgage interest rates look like they are ready to go double figures, a continuation of the 2007 finance company meltdown set to drag on, and Helen Clark and her merry bunch set to plunder taxpayer wallets again in 2008, this writer is still in a holiday frame of mind.


On that light note then id like to offer my completely unbiased opinion (yeah right) on what my picks are in 2008 for stocks to watch for.

Keep in mind that global stock markets this year are going to get a beating from the aforementioned and a probable recession in the US, and my picks are going to reflect the actual prospects of the companies and not the wider short term global influences mentioned.

My picks are long term, with a bare minimum of 5 years, and have an emphasis on companies with good long term prospects.

Without further ado and out clauses, here are my picks.

Like a lot of other stock pickers poking their heads above the parapet in 2008 I am going to put Fisher and Paykel Healthcare[FPH] at the top of my list.

Unlike its cousin Fisher and Paykel Appliances, FPH has good long term prospects and that is driven mainly by an R and D department that keeps coming up with cutting edge products with good margins that keep the revenues coming in.

Recent positive developments in the USA over increased health provider payments for FPH's sleep apnea products in-home mean this area is a driving force for profit and as new products are developed for the at home market profit looks set to rise.

The only negative is the weak US dollar, which is something quite frankly the company and analysts need to get over.

Pumpkin Patch Ltd[PPL]is on my buying list again for 2008. I have already picked up increased quantities of this 2007 beaten down stock and the short term punishment from slightly weaker global profit margins due to higher living costs means this stock will pick up when these pressures disappear.

Its strong global brand awareness and loyalty to that brand also helps during downturns.

Another retailer suffering from a mammoth stock slide in 2007, Hallenstein Glasson [HLG] is a pick for 2008.

A very well run company that shares the same reasons for its downturn with the likes of Pumpkin Patch and all other retailers.

Already retracing some of its 2007 slide, the stock price will be downwards volatile in the first part of the year and add some value as we come out to Christmas 2008.

Burger Fuel Worldwide[BFW] has heated up the Google box in 2007 and may gain interest as it expands in Australasia in 2008.

An indicator of what the share price will do will be sales figures from the Kings Cross Burger Fuel opened towards the end of 2007.

Indicators are that sales are good.

Like Pumpkin Patch, its strong brand awareness and loyalty will help it prosper long term. Although profit isn’t going to come in 2008.

I’m picking Burger Fuel as my wild card and recommend buying in the 20-30c range.

Mainfreight is another company that I have a shareholding in, and far be it from me to pick yet another already in the Share Investor Portfolio but I wouldn’t have picked it in the first place if it didn’t rate a mention in my 2008 picks.

Mainfreight[MFT]is a very well run company and perhaps more than any other listed on the NZX, management have set it up to succeed long term.

Everything has been set up with company long term sustainability and success in mind, and the pressures that Mainfreight will come under in 2008: increased fuel, wage, and interest rates, will be largely ameliorated because of careful forward planning.

The share price has been beaten down to around NZ$6.50 from a 2007 high of over 8 bucks, so the upside is obvious.

Other 2008 notables for me are:

Sky City Entertainment[SKC] if it isn’t sold it ain’t the end of the world and its new head that starts soon looks promising and has a track record of reorganizing casinos and making them tick.

Telecom New Zealand[TEL] if its new leader can change the whacked out culture of its workers and respond to its current and new customers in a preemptive instead of a reactive way then they have a good shot.

Serious money must be spent on infrastructure in 2008 to move Telecom’s technology into the 21st century.

If Michael Hill International [MHI] can build on its 2007 success, with good indicators for sales in Canada and material efforts to expand into Mainland USA, then the after 10 for 1 split share price of just over NZ$1.10, looks set to hit record highs in 2008.

Rakon’s [RAK] share price was slaughtered from highs over 5 dollars in 2007 and there were a few teething and integration of new business problems that put the foot on the brakes.

Higher than usual Kiwi dollar crosses wiped some profit off the balance sheet but management should focus on the business first before worrying about things they cant control.

A great long term prospect.

Two US stocks that I'm picking for 2008 are Yum Brands [YUM]and Starbucks [SBUX] I like Yum because of its potential for expansion of its operations in China and India and Starbucks for the same reason.

Yum's KFC operation seems to be the star of the show, especially in China, as increasingly wealthy Chinese get the taste for western protein such as chicken and the number of possible units there would dwarf the US store count.

Starbucks had a rough year in 2007 but this former bull star has room left to run in 2008 as its stock price was given a good frothing due to its slowing sales and profit and Asian expansion could put some cream on the lattes as 2008 goes forward.


2008 is going to be a tough year for investors but with the right research and focus on how the business you are going to invest in works, you are going to set yourself up well in the long term.

Like any picks from people like myself, they must be taken with caution and may not be the right ones for you.

My picks come from my own research and I have backed them mostly by plunking down hard earned cash, with the exception of Burger Fuel, Rakon , Telecom and Hallenstein Glasson.

Burger Fuel and Hallensteins are on my radar to add to my portfolio in 2008.

Happy investing for 2008!

Disclosure: I own Sky City, Mainfreight, Michael Hill, Hallenstein Glasson, Pumpkin Patch and Fisher & Paykel Shares.



Share Investor's Annual Stock Picks

Share Investor's 2017 Stock Picks

Share Investor's 2014 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2013 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2012 Stock Picks 
Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2010 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2009 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2008 Stock picks

Broker Picks

Brokers 2014 Stock Picks
Brokers 2013 Stock Picks
Brokers 2012 Stock Picks
Brokers 2011 Stock Picks






c Share Investor 2008





Saturday, January 5, 2008

Carbon Credit trading puts global markets at extreme risk

Originally posted at my Share Investor Blog this piece is also a highly political one, and in an Election year voters need to be wary of our political masters and their views on the new global warming religion.

The New Zealand Labour party passed a law at the end of 2007 to allow the trading of "carbon credits" in 2008 and the legitimacy that it sees this trading give their lunatic stance on "global warming" will give them ample cause to bring even more new taxes in 2008 to "lessen the impact of our carbon footprints" and therefore have even more control over New Zealanders.

Man made "global warming" is a myth and it is a means used by politicians to suck your pocket drier than a dust storm in the Saudi desert on a 60 degree day in the full sun.

Nothing more.



Carbon Credit trading puts global markets at extreme risk

From Share Investor Blog


I'm going to kick 2008 off with a topic that is going to be a constant of mine this year, and in the years to come, because as far as economics, the impact on economies and business, it is going to be one of the biggest negatives we have ever faced.

The scourge of the global warming Nazis and their thirst for control, of individuals and nations, through new and increased taxes, in the name of decreasing your "carbon footprint", is going to have far reaching impacts into every aspect of everyday life.

The relevance of this to investing and my interest comes in the form of "carbon trading".

The introduction of a so-called "Carbon Trading" platform by New Zealand's NZX is likely to be the beginning of the end for this country's economy and global economies as we know them and there is a possibility that our sharemarket could be wiped off the face of the earth completely when the carbon trading market inevitably collapses.

Scaremongering and overstating my case to make a point?

I think not.

If we learn anything from history in regards to booms and busts and meaningless frenzies whipped up by market hysteria, we have only to look back to the most recent tech bust of 2000, where there was at least some substance and truth and real profit involved in a handful of tech companies, some of which still survive today.

We can also look back to the Dutch poppy boom around 400 years ago, where "rare" blooms were being traded for outrageous prices, well beyond any intrinsic value and of course just like the tech boom 400 years latter, much wealth was made by those that got in first but eventually things turned pear shaped, and most people lost, collectively, vast sums of money.

If we look at the carbon trading market, one can see the beginnings of a frenzy, one being whipped up by the likes of Al Gore, Hollywood and theorists who base their whole "global warming" theory on failed "science" and outright lies.

Al Gore is one of the leading proponents of carbon credit trading and has a huge financial interest in that market.

These early adopters are set to make billions on carbon trading markets and will be the only ones to profit from it.

The outfall when the latter come investors lose faith from trading "carbon credits", which they will because they are not only worth zero in dollar terms, but are a negative weight on economies and have no intrinsic value in themselves, will cause a crash in multiple markets not seen since 1929 and the 2000 tech plunge.

The trading of good stocks, property, land, businesses, minerals, commodities and the like, that have an actual value, and clearly while the prices of these assets will fluctuate in price, most provide a real income and have value. Carbon credits, which are and will be traded increasingly in the future, have no actual value if you don't believe the flawed concept on which they are actually based.

As most critical thinkers know, the concept of man made "global warming", the basis for it and the reasons it is being raised as a concept or theory, is a highly contentious one and the trading of carbon credits, in order to make money for the savvy, gives it a respectability it really doesn't deserve.

Just like the poppy rush of the 1600s, the great crash of 1929, the market meltdown in1987 and the tech bust in 2000, the coming carbon credit trading bust shares some of the reasons why markets crashed at these times.

These four market crashes all share an over exuberance and a market frenzy to a point where the value of the assets or shares traded far exceeded their real intrinsic value and these were the main reasons why the markets eventually collapsed.

The poppy trading, tech market boom and carbon credit trading share a similar trait in themselves.

In all three cases the values placed on "goods" traded often had no or little value from the get go.

Poppies traded 400 years ago were wildly inflated in price, the majority of tech company stocks traded had never made a profit, and in the carbon credit trading example not only does the "product" traded have no real value, it is actually of negative value, in a local and global business sense because it adds cost to running a business and will eventually be applied to every product and service that consumers buy and use on a daily basis.

From a carbon tax on gas at the pump, to food you buy in the supermarket, the new carbon taxes will be applied to everything and clearly it will cost us all more, all for no good reason, for that is what taxes do, they constrain business and economies.

So clearly the carbon credit trading part of the equation means you can offset those extra taxes forced on us by the global warming Nazis but the negative value of those so called carbon credits is self evident from my explanation that they are a cost not a productive commodity that is worth anything.

They are worth less than nothing!!!

Politicians and business "leaders" who have jumped on the carbon credit bandwagon, because they can see the dollars to be made and the control of the populace that extra taxes afford, are putting the global economy under threat. Ironic then that this is being led by a failed politician, Al Gore.

The past has left us littered with evidence that getting caught up in such bandwagons only leads to disaster.

To ignore the warning signs of history is to go forward blindfolded, deaf and with ones mouth shut and is clearly moronic to the ultimate degree.

In writing this piece I am constantly reminded by the old adage "...when one ignores history one is bound to repeat the same mistakes..." but we know what has passed and it is more like, "... repeating the same thing over and over and expecting a different result".

Either way the global economy is in for a huge shock when the carbon credit market implodes.

Resist the temptation to get involved this time.

Humourous look at trading in "dreams"


C Share Investor & Political Animal 2007, 2008

Thursday, January 3, 2008

Carbon Credit trading puts global markets at extreme risk

I'm going to kick 2008 off with a topic that is going to be a constant of mine this year, and in the years to come, because as far as economics, the impact on economies and business, it is going to be one of the biggest negatives we have ever faced.

The scourge of the global warming Nazis and their thirst for control, of individuals and nations, through new and increased taxes, in the name of decreasing your "carbon footprint", is going to have far reaching impacts into every aspect of everyday life.

The relevance of this to investing and my interest comes in the form of "carbon trading".

The introduction of a so-called "Carbon Trading" platform by New Zealand's NZX is likely to be the beginning of the end for this country's economy and global economies as we know them and there is a possibility that our sharemarket could be wiped off the face of the earth completely when the carbon trading market inevitably collapses.

Scaremongering and overstating my case to make a point?

I think not.

If we learn anything from history in regards to booms and busts and meaningless frenzies whipped up by market hysteria, we have only to look back to the most recent tech bust of 2000, where there was at least some substance and truth and real profit involved in a handful of tech companies, some of which still survive today.

We can also look back to the Dutch poppy boom around 400 years ago, where "rare" blooms were being traded for outrageous prices, well beyond any intrinsic value and of course just like the tech boom 400 years latter, much wealth was made by those that got in first but eventually things turned pear shaped, and most people lost, collectively, vast sums of money.

If we look at the carbon trading market, one can see the beginnings of a frenzy, one being whipped up by the likes of Al Gore, Hollywood and theorists who base their whole "global warming" theory on failed "science" and outright lies.

Al Gore is one of the leading proponents of carbon credit trading and has a huge financial interest in that market.

These early adopters are set to make billions on carbon trading markets and will be the only ones to profit from it.

The outfall when the latter come investors lose faith from trading "carbon credits", which they will because they are not only worth zero in dollar terms, but are a negative weight on economies and have no intrinsic value in themselves, will cause a crash in multiple markets not seen since 1929 and the 2000 tech plunge.

The trading of good stocks, property, land, businesses, minerals, commodities and the like, that have an actual value, and clearly while the prices of these assets will fluctuate in price, most provide a real income and have value. Carbon credits, which are and will be traded increasingly in the future, have no actual value if you don't believe the flawed concept on which they are actually based.

As most critical thinkers know, the concept of man made "global warming", the basis for it and the reasons it is being raised as a concept or theory, is a highly contentious one and the trading of carbon credits, in order to make money for the savvy, gives it a respectability it really doesn't deserve.

Just like the poppy rush of the 1600s, the great crash of 1929, the market meltdown in 1987 and the tech bust in 2000, the coming carbon credit trading bust shares some of the reasons why markets crashed at these times.

These four market crashes all share an over exuberance and a market frenzy to a point where the value of the assets or shares traded far exceeded their real intrinsic value and these were the main reasons why the markets eventually collapsed.

The poppy trading, tech market boom and carbon credit trading share a similar trait in themselves.

In all three cases the values placed on "goods" traded often had no or little value from the get go.

Poppies traded 400 years ago were wildly inflated in price, the majority of tech company stocks traded had never made a profit, and in the carbon credit trading example not only does the "product" traded have no real value, it is actually of negative value, in a local and global business sense because it adds cost to running a business and will eventually be applied to every product and service that consumers buy and use on a daily basis.

From a carbon tax on gas at the pump, to food you buy in the supermarket, the new carbon taxes will be applied to everything and clearly it will cost us all more, all for no good reason, for that is what taxes do, they constrain business and economies.

So clearly the carbon credit trading part of the equation means you can offset those extra taxes forced on us by the global warming Nazis but the negative value of those so called carbon credits is self evident from my explanation that they are a cost not a productive commodity that is worth anything.

They are worth less than nothing!!!

Politicians and business "leaders" who have jumped on the carbon credit bandwagon, because they can see the dollars to be made and the control of the populace that extra taxes afford, are putting the global economy under threat. Ironic then that this is being led by a failed politician, Al Gore.

The past has left us littered with evidence that getting caught up in such bandwagons only leads to disaster.

To ignore the warning signs of history is to go forward blindfolded, deaf and with ones mouth shut and is clearly moronic to the ultimate degree.

In writing this piece I am constantly reminded by the old adage "...when one ignores history one is bound to repeat the same mistakes..." but we know what has passed and it is more like, "... repeating the same thing over and over and expecting a different result".

Either way the global economy is in for a huge shock when the carbon credit market implodes.

Resist the temptation to get involved this time.


Related Share Investor Reading

Mark Weldon Strikes out on Carbon Trading
Quote of the year
Of Tulip bulbs and Tooth fairies
Global warning: Tax iceberg ahead
Mark Weldon in two minds about carbon trading

Related links

TZ1 Market
Kristen Byrne - 15 year old schoolgirl debunks climate change myth

NZX financial data



Related Amazon Material

The Great Global Warming Swindle (DVD)The Great Global Warming Swindle (DVD)
Buy new: $14.99 / Used from: $15.99
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Expelled: No Intelligence AllowedExpelled: No Intelligence Allowed
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c Share Investor 2007-2009




Tuesday, January 1, 2008

Extending a middle finger in 2008

For the first post of 2008 on Political Animal and just to poke a middle extended finger at the Electoral Finance Act, that came into force today, I am going to do something that I should be freely able to do.

Speak my mind about politics, politicians what they do, and how they do it.

I would like to point out to my readers that I could be breaking the EFA and risk a fine and or prison for what I am about to say.

Don't vote for Labour, NZ First, The Greens or the Progressive party.

Those that make up these parties are fascist, nasty and Stalinist and are freedom haters of the lowest form and they don't wish for you to have a free vote in the 2008 New Zealand Elections and you must vote accordingly if you want a free election.

Free speech is an important part of any democracy and that has now been removed because of the Electoral Finance Act and the aforementioned collectives.

Vote for either the Maori Party, Act or National, because they voted against the bill and clearly respect your freedoms as voters.

All together now, middle fingers extended!!

Wish me luck.

I wish you all a happy, free and prosperous New Year.


C Political Animal 2007