Showing posts with label rbd. Show all posts
Showing posts with label rbd. Show all posts

Wednesday, May 11, 2011

KFC Doubles up on Double Down record one day sales


Punters waiting to "Double Down" at KFC Quay Street Yesterday


The introduction of the KFC Double Down Sandwich yesterday in New Zealand just has to be the marketing and business coup of the last 10 years for the company that holds the franchise for KFC in this country, Restaurant Brands Ltd [RBD.NZX].


Health nazis across the land yelled from the rooftops to any left leaning publisher or media harlot in the country that would listen and as a result of the free publicity you couldn't go anywhere over the last few days without anyone mentioning it in a conversation, hearing in on talkback or seeing it posted on facebook or twitter.


Restaurant Brands didn't have to lift a finger or spend a cent on publicity, it was all done by the old fashioned word of mouth but done at the speed of the internet rather than as quick as you could tell or phone your neighbour.



There has been little paid advertising of this sandwich at all!

This has led though to record one day sales for KFC and long lines of people waiting in drive thrus and at the counters of every KFC across the nation. Not only did they sell the sandwiches, customers also bought other items on the menu to boot and the increased sales are set to continue as the company has carefully created a scarcity factor into the sale of this product - it will only be available for 5 weeks, so get in fast!! Of course it will be re-introduced on a semi regular basis because who wouldn't want to as every time it comes back on the menu the fingers will wag and the media will go back into overdrive.


Long term, these promotions and hub bub around such "controversial" subjects as so-called junk food will help sales of other products more than the actual promotional item itself.


The next 5 weeks of sales for the company will be interesting to watch. They will not continue in the same volume as today's huge rush to buy the Double Down but they are likely to be significantly higher than comparable sales last year. At $7.90 per unit compared to their burgers with buns the margin for this product is significantly higher and high margins in this business are hard to come by.


This has been a big win for KFC and its marketing program and a great way to create excitement for a new product with big spin offs for other parts of their business.


RBD investors should be lick'n their lips in anticipation of the higher sales.


KFC 1 , Food police 0.



Restaurant Brands @ Share Investor


RBD - 2011 Half Year Result

RBD - 2010 Quarter one sales
RBD - 2010 Quarter two sales


Share Price Alert: Restaurant Brands Ltd

Restaurant Brands share price looking overcooked
Most Outstanding Stock of 2010: Restaurant Brands Ltd
Restaurant Brands Ltd: KFC has finally cracked it
Restaurant Brands: KFC Sales Figures Explained - Part 2
Finger Lick'n Good Management
Chart of the Week: Restaurant Brands Ltd
Long Term View: Restaurant Brands Ltd
Stock of Week: Restaurant Brands Ltd
Restaurant Brands: Buy or Sell ?
Pizza Hut sell-off provide opportunities all-round
Danny Diab & Restaurant Brands
2008-2009 KFC sales figures mislead investors
KFC Finally Flying
Starbuck's New Zealand Cup doesn't runneth over
RBD gives KFC a push
McDonald's playing chicken with KFC
Restaurant Brand's Pizza Hut faces increasing competition
RBD sales analysis
RBD saga continues: CEO leaves
The secret recipe is out
2007 FY profit analysis
Delivering increased profit in October 2007
No reason for optimism in latest sales figures

Discuss RBD @ Share Investor Forum





c Share Investor 2011





Thursday, May 5, 2011

The Warehouse Group Ltd: Takeover Speculation Resurfaces

Update 27 June 2011, Woolworths keen on expanding WHS stake

I am going to speculate on some speculation in Businessday this morning that the appointment of Ted van Arkel as an independent director of The Warehouse Group Ltd [WHS.NZX] means the sale of the company is back on the table.

Van Arkel has a long history and ties to retail in both New Zealand and Australia and has a hard nosed reputation both as a former managing director of Progressive Enterprises, owned by Woolworths Ltd [WOW.ASX] and as an independent director of multiple boards and chairman of Restaurant Brands Ltd [RBD.NZX] and Charlie's Group Ltd [CHA.NZX]. He has also known Stephan Tindal and chairman Graham Evans for a long time, working with Tindal, through George Court, and Evans through Woolworths.

Van Arkel's links to Australasian retail maybe indeed be just a sideshow in terms of where the Warehouse is heading and he maybe there for his vast retail experience but I don't think fresh blood on the board like this is an accidental appointment apart from his resume.

Van Arkel's links to Woolworths are strong and as that company is a 10% shareholder of the company his connections here are significant. With Charlies, as chairman, he has recently presided over two big deals to get Charlies products onto Woolworth's shelves in Australia and in the stores of competitor Coles, owned by retail giant, Wesfarmers Ltd [WES.ASX]

With Restaurant Brands, under his time there, the company has transformed itself from a dog into a flourishing peacock in terms of performance and customer service. Van Arkel seems to be the goto guy if you want a director to lead to the way to better performance in retail.

He appears to be behind the brand change image of Postie Plus Group [PPG.NZX] which sadly, thus far, has failed to gain much traction or indeed profit.

His reputation as a retail "Mr Fix It" appears not to be a coincidence as The Warehouse is currently stagnating in terms of sales and profit and the introduction of such a director with such strong ties to retail in this part of the world is a significant move if Van Arkel's past has anything to go by.

While Van Arkel's appointment is not a clear sign that The Warehouse is back on the block, what is crystal clear is that his place with the company as an independent director means some significant change for the company in the months and years ahead.

His inclusion on the board does make a sale more likely because of his past track record but it is not a given.

Disclosure: I own WHS shares in the Share Investor Portfolio

Warehouse Group Ltd: 2010 Full Year Profit Analysis
Share Investor Q & A: Questions to The Warehouse' Ian Morrice
Long Term View: The Warehouse Group Ltd
Share Investor Short: Warehouse Group yield worth a look
The Warehouse Group: 2010 Interim Profit Review
The Warehouse: Big Brands, Big Opportunities
Warehouse strike opportunity to buy
Long Term Play: The Warehouse Group
Share Investor Short: Warehouse Group yield worth a second look
Woolworths supermarket consolidation an indicator of a move on the Warehouse?
Stock of the Week: The Warehouse Group
Warehouse 2009 interim profit a key economic indicator
When will The Warehouse bidders make their move?
Long vs Short: The Warehouse Group
Warehouse bidders ready to lay money down
The Warehouse set to cut lose "extra" impediment
The Warehouse sale could hinge on "Extra" decision

The case for The Warehouse without a buyer
Foodstuffs take their foot off the gas
Woolworths seek leave to appeal to Supreme Court

Warehouse appeal decision imminent
Warehouse decision a loser for all
Warehouse Court of appeal decision in Commerce Commission's favour
MARKETWATCH: The Warehouse
The Warehouse takeover saga continues
Why did you buy that stock? [The Warehouse]
History of Warehouse takeover players suggest a long winding road
Court of Appeal delays Warehouse bid
The Warehouse set for turbulent 2008
The Warehouse Court of Appeal case lay in "Extras" hands
WHS Court of Appeal case could be dismissed next week
Commerce Commission impacts on the Warehouse bottom line
The Warehouse in play
Outcomes of Commerce Commission decision
The fight for control begins soon

Discuss WHS @ Share Investor Forum - Register free
Download WHS company reports



 
c Share Investor 2011





Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Share Price Alert: Restaurant Brands Ltd

Image result for KFC NZ

The all-time peak for Restaurant Brands Ltd [RBD.NZX] shares was $2.76 back on October 29 but since then the share price has retreated by 29c or just over 10% to close at $2.46 yesterday.

There doesn't appear to be anything material within the company to suggest a slow down in company fortunes and there was even an NZX share price enquiry back in late Jan when the share price dropped 28 cents in a few weeks that came to nothing so the share price fall seems to be a mystery.

I can only guess that there could be cost pressures on the business from increased raw food prices and energy costs. Every staple has risen substantially over the last few months, especially this year and chicken, the primary cost for this business, has risen 10% in January alone.

While the company will have stable contracts for supply of raw food and power these costs will rise when the contracts expire. Add to this the minimum wage rise of 2% passed a few weeks ago and one can perhaps see some validity in the lower share price.

I have been uneasy about the RBD share price for some time and in November questioned the highs the share price was reaching.

There will obviously be more cost pressure as 2011 wears on so the share price is likely to retreat from its present levels unless price rises at the counter can be increased without affecting sales too much.


Share Price Alert

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Goodman Fielder Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
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Freightways Ltd
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Restaurant Brands @ Share Investor

RBD - 2011 Half Year Result
RBD - 2010 Quarter one sales
RBD - 2010 Quarter two sales


Restaurant Brands share price looking overcooked

Most Outstanding Stock of 2010: Restaurant Brands Ltd
Restaurant Brands Ltd: KFC has finally cracked it
Restaurant Brands: KFC Sales Figures Explained - Part 2
Finger Lick'n Good Management
Chart of the Week: Restaurant Brands Ltd
Long Term View: Restaurant Brands Ltd
Stock of Week: Restaurant Brands Ltd
Restaurant Brands: Buy or Sell ?
Pizza Hut sell-off provide opportunities all-round
Danny Diab & Restaurant Brands
2008-2009 KFC sales figures mislead investors
KFC Finally Flying
Starbuck's New Zealand Cup doesn't runneth over
RBD gives KFC a push
McDonald's playing chicken with KFC
Restaurant Brand's Pizza Hut faces increasing competition
RBD sales analysis
RBD saga continues: CEO leaves
The secret recipe is out
2007 FY profit analysis
Delivering increased profit in October 2007
No reason for optimism in latest sales figures

Discuss RBD @ Share Investor Forum



c Share Investor 2011

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Restaurant Brands share price looking overcooked



Restaurant Brands Ltd [RBD.NZX] shares reached an all time high last week when it hit a price of $2.76 on Friday. The previous high of around $2.70 was reached shortly after listing back in 1997.

The market has had a typical response to this stock. It has always overreacted to bad news and with its run over good news over the last year has done the same again.

Long term investors are in the box seat but if you are here for the fast food equivalent of an investing drive through the share price is getting a little overcooked and you might well be cautious and start thinking about setting an escape price.

If you think CEO Russel Creedy can keep up the good work consistently though, the share price might be just an incidental along the way to far greater things.

No secret recipe, just an obvious market observation.


Restaurant Brands @ Share Investor

RBD - 2011 Half Year Result
RBD - 2010 Quarter one sales
RBD - 2010 Quarter two sales


Most Outstanding Stock of 2010: Restaurant Brands Ltd
Restaurant Brands Ltd: KFC has finally cracked it
Restaurant Brands: KFC Sales Figures Explained - Part 2
Finger Lick'n Good Management
Chart of the Week: Restaurant Brands Ltd
Long Term View: Restaurant Brands Ltd
Stock of Week: Restaurant Brands Ltd
Restaurant Brands: Buy or Sell ?
Pizza Hut sell-off provide opportunities all-round
Danny Diab & Restaurant Brands
2008-2009 KFC sales figures mislead investors
KFC Finally Flying
Starbuck's New Zealand Cup doesn't runneth over
RBD gives KFC a push
McDonald's playing chicken with KFC
Restaurant Brand's Pizza Hut faces increasing competition
RBD sales analysis
RBD saga continues: CEO leaves
The secret recipe is out
2007 FY profit analysis
Delivering increased profit in October 2007
No reason for optimism in latest sales figures

Discuss RBD @ Share Investor Forum
Download RBD company reports


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c Share Investor 2010

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Most Outstanding Stock of 2010: Restaurant Brands Ltd



Long have I been a knocker of Restaurant Brands New Zealand [RBD.NZX] over the last 13 years but 2010 has been a standout year for the company. In terms of sales and profit performance it has managed to raise most key indicators of success in its business, especially with its KFC brand.

It 2010 full year profit was substantially up on full year 2009 and its 2011 half year out today was a full testosterone chicken ahead of half year 2010. In fact the company is achieving record profits and looks to earn between $24 - 26 million in full year 2011.

Dividends are also well up and at all time highs.

Likewise the share price started 2010 (see 2 year chart above) out at around a buck and as I write this is trading at around $2.60, close to its all time high last reached around 13 long years ago.

Just 2 years ago the share was trading just above 50c! (see 13 year chart below)



I have to hand it to CEO Russel Creedy for turning the company around. He has been exceptional in his management from a turkey of a company when he arrived a few years back to a full blown chicken with a punch like Mike Tyson in his prime.

Beware though that there could be a touch of salmonella in the tail. While I don't expect the exceptionally poor performance of past management, the company is achieving close to peak profit in the fast food sector and its share price levels reflect this.

Even though 2010 still has more than 2 months to plod on, I have no hesitation in giving RBD the golden chicken drumstick for the best company in 2010.

I am hoping to get an interview with Russel now we are on the same page.

Well done Russ.


Restaurant Brands @ Share Investor

RBD - 2011 Half Year Result
RBD - 2010 Quarter one sales
RBD - 2010 Quarter two sales


Restaurant Brands Ltd: KFC has finally cracked it

Restaurant Brands: KFC Sales Figures Explained - Part 2
Finger Lick'n Good Management
Chart of the Week: Restaurant Brands Ltd
Long Term View: Restaurant Brands Ltd
Stock of Week: Restaurant Brands Ltd
Restaurant Brands: Buy or Sell ?
Pizza Hut sell-off provide opportunities all-round
Danny Diab & Restaurant Brands
2008-2009 KFC sales figures mislead investors
KFC Finally Flying
Starbuck's New Zealand Cup doesn't runneth over
RBD gives KFC a push
McDonald's playing chicken with KFC
Restaurant Brand's Pizza Hut faces increasing competition
RBD sales analysis
RBD saga continues: CEO leaves
The secret recipe is out
2007 FY profit analysis
Delivering increased profit in October 2007
No reason for optimism in latest sales figures

Discuss RBD @ Share Investor Forum




c Share Investor 2010





Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Restaurant Brands Ltd: KFC has finally cracked it

I haven't written much about Restaurant Brands Ltd [RBD.NZX] recently, it has been quietly going about its business with pretty much good results.

Their second quarter sales release prompted me however to come out and discuss some issues surrounding the fortunes of the company.

When I last discussed this company back in early June, I commented over the distortion of figures used by KFC management to report sales figures. They didn't include inflation as part of their calculation:

"The "record" $54 million of sales reported in today's result for KFC is only a record in terms of 2010 dollars. KFC are actually serving up less chicken to fewer customers.

Their best listed year was in 1997 where they did $172.3 million in KFC sales. That is because of accumulated inflation at a very conservative 3% annually over the last 13 years amounts to 39%.

Now lets assume conservatively that RBD sell $220 million of KFC for the full year 2010 and compare that figure to the 1997 record year.

39% inflation means in 2010 dollars RBD would have to sell $67.2 million more chicken just to match the record made in 1997.

$220 million is a fair way from the figure they need to make, of $239.5 million, just to match the 1997 record."

I have also wondered whether the increase in KFC sales was a sustainable one that had a long term take with KFC customers and it looks like given $72.8 million in sales for KFC in the latest quarter that if this growth continues the company could be looking at close to $300 million in total annual sales within the next year or so. This would easily beat the inflation adjusted $239.5 million that they needed to make to beat the record year for sales back in 1997.

I had my doubts but RBD CEO Russell Creedy looks like he has found the secret recipe for this company and its future and that recipe is clearly KFC.

Starbucks and Pizza Hut, the two other brands that the company manages, are still struggling and remain an unprofitable noose around the neck of the parent company.

The only answer for me is when will they be sold so they can allow the KFC brand to flourish even further without the distractions that two other brands bring to the parent company.


Restaurant Brands @ Share Investor

RBD - 2010 Quarter one sales
RBD - 2010 Quarter two sales


Restaurant Brands: KFC Sales Figures Explained - Part 2

Finger Lick'n Good Management
Chart of the Week: Restaurant Brands Ltd
Long Term View: Restaurant Brands Ltd
Stock of Week: Restaurant Brands Ltd
Restaurant Brands: Buy or Sell ?
Pizza Hut sell-off provide opportunities all-round
Danny Diab & Restaurant Brands
2008-2009 KFC sales figures mislead investors
KFC Finally Flying
Starbuck's New Zealand Cup doesn't runneth over
RBD gives KFC a push
McDonald's playing chicken with KFC
Restaurant Brand's Pizza Hut faces increasing competition
RBD sales analysis
RBD saga continues: CEO leaves
The secret recipe is out
2007 FY profit analysis
Delivering increased profit in October 2007
No reason for optimism in latest sales figures

Discuss RBD @ Share Investor Forum



c Share Investor 2010




Thursday, July 29, 2010

Ryman Healthcare Ltd: Australian Expansion Needs Care

Ryman Healthcare Ltd [RYM.NZ],the retirement village and aged care provider, is one of the NZXs best performing companies and historically it has increased earnings by at least 10% for each of the last 10 years.

Its full year result to March 31 2010 was up 16% on last years 2009 full year and indications are that these sorts of results are likely to continue for the foreseeable future considering the increasing age demographics for the New Zealand population and the seemingly unparalleled popularity of their offering to their prospective customers.

New Zealand has and will remain an important area of growth in revenue and profit for the long term and this has been stated by Ryman management on many occasions.

The decision announced today at the Ryman Healthcare Ltd [RYM.NZ] annual meeting to start looking at property in Australia to build one of their villages is a two edged sword for the company and its shareholders.

In an interview with Ryman Chief Financial Officer, Gordon Macleod coming up next week at Share Investor I put the question of expansion into Australia before today's announcement and the answer, now somewhat academic, will be adding to today's news.

On the one hand the company has a good business model, is brilliantly managed and Australia is a vast untapped market for them but on the other hand Australia is littered with the corpses of listed companies that have tried to expand there and have headed back with their tails between their legs and millions of dollars less in their pockets.

Ask management at The Warehouse Group Ltd [WHS.NZ], Telecom NZ [TEL.NZ], Restaurant Brands Ltd [RBD.NZ] Burger Fuel Worldwide [BFW.NZ] and a whole host of other companies that thought they could foot it in a much more competitive market. Australia has been the bogeyman of failure for New Zealand businesses looking for more opportunities for growth.

There have also been successes. Michael Hill International [MHI.NZ], Mainfreight Ltd [MFT.NZ] Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL.NZ], Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd [SKC.NZ] (after new management and a number of years) and others set out to achieve their goals and promises to shareholders for more growth across the ditch and have done well for shareholders in terms of returns.

One of the major stumbling blocks for Kiwi companies expanding across the Tasman has been their lack of research and the tendency to go full steam ahead without testing the market in a small way first. Significantly the aforementioned failures all bought standalone businesses (apart form BFW) and thought they could run them in a similar fashion to their New Zealand business model. The successful ones all tried their new businesses in Australia in a small way and grew a base from their initial success.

Management at Ryman have indicated that they have done their research for years and they are going to develop one village and see how it goes before committing any further shareholder cash to growth there:

“We have been carefully studying the Australian market for several years,” and we see it as the next logical step in the growth of the company. The Ryman model will be relatively unique in the Australian market.”

“We are in a strong financial position and the management team is ready to take this next step.”

“Shareholders can be reassured that we will be taking one step at a time, and that we will be very focussed on getting the first village successfully established.” Ryman Chairman Dr David Kerr at 2010 Annual Meeting.

Ryman shareholders should indeed be pleased that the company is taking the softly, softly approach to Australian expansion but cautious nonetheless that the outcome of expansion in OZ could be disappointing.

This company has been well managed in the past and I am mostly pleased about the announcement today, apart from the reservations I pointed out.

If the Australian move is executed with as much care and consideration - subject to proper research by RYM management and taking into account the vast differences in business, investment, employment practices and other country specific variables - as has been in New Zealand the company and shareholders are going to be richly rewarded in the long term.

I look forward to positive results from our Aussie branch over the next few years .

Disclosure: I own MHI, MFT, PPL RYM, WHS shares in the Share Investor Portfolio


Ryman Healthcare @ Share Investor


Share Investor Q & A: Ryman Healthcare's CFO Gordon MacLeod
Ryman Healthcare: Interview sneak peak
Ryman Healthcare Ltd: Australian Expansion Needs Care
Share Investor Q & A: Reader Questions to Ryman CFO Gordon Macleod
Long Term View: Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Stock of the Week: Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Why did you buy that stock? [Ryman Healthcare]
Long VS Short: Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Time for retirement?


Discuss RYM @ Share Investor Forum



c Share Investor 2010





Friday, July 16, 2010

Cavalier Corp: Profit Upgrade off low 2009 Result

The profit upgrade put out by Cavalier Corporation Ltd [CAV.NZ]today while great shouldn't be seen as de riguer for the beginning of the August - September reporting period but a highlight for investors in that company. The company is forecasting a 2010 full year profit of between $16.3 million and $16.7 million tax paid.

It is surprise to me that a company like Cavalier would increase their profit, given the slowdown in the building sector, but perhaps refurbishments instead of new installations have been the reason for the increase.

The increase of 22% on 2009 must also be put into context of a $17.9 million net profit for 2008 and a low result of $13.7 million in 2009.

With the notable exception of a few one-offs like Cavalier don't expect much excitement for the 2010 full year season.

I am expecting more of the flat to slightly down results we have seen earlier this year and one year ago on cost cutting measures.

Look for good results from the likes of Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd [SKC.NZ] Hallenstein Glasson Holdings [HLG.NZ] and Restaurant Brands Ltd [RBD.NZ]with a big focus on where the Telecom New Zealand [TEL.NZ]result is heading to see whether investors have been right to mark the stock down to well below 2 bucks over the last few months.


Disc
I own HLG and SKC shares from the Share Investor Portfolio



Cavalier Corp @ Share Investor

Long Term View: Cavalier Corporation Ltd
Download CAV Company Reports
Discuss CAV @ Share Investor Forum





c Share Investor 2010










Thursday, June 10, 2010

NZX's Top 10 Dividend Returns

It is hard to get good returns from term investments and the property market at the moment with around a 3.5% real return from the former and similarly low results from investment properties, if you bought a house over the last 10 years.

The New Zealand Stockmarket has some good returns on selected stocks many are getting close to a 10% gross return. With this in mind lets take a look at the 10 best dividend players listed on the NZX.

Figures are gleaned from the NZX website and are based on figures calculated from market prices as of close of market on 9 June 2010. The gross returns are based on past profit performance.


The Top Ten

Telecom NZ Ltd [TEL.NZ] - 13.26%

Steel & Tube Holdings [STU.NZ] - 11.92%

Kiwi Income Property Ltd [KIP.NZ] - 9.92%

Vector Ltd [VCT.NZ] - 9.35%

Hallenstein Glasson Holdings [HLG.NZ] - 9.22%

Telstra Corp [TLS.NZ] - 9.08%

Freightways Ltd [FRE.NZ] - 8.41%

Air New Zealand [AIR.NZ] - 8.28%

Goodman Fielder Ltd [GFF.NZ] - 7.82%

Restaurant Brands Ltd [RBD.NZ] - 7.76%


While not guaranteed returns - the likes of TEL, TLS, KIP & AIR dividends will be under future pressure - even the minimum return from RBDs 7.76% is nearly twice the return of term investments and investment property.

Good to see I own 5 out of the top 10.

Disclosure I own FRE, GFF, HLG, KIP, STU in the Share Investor Portfolio


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c Share Investor 2010