The Warehouse: Is it Time to Bow Out?

Let me begin this piece with I no longer wish to be a shareholder in The Warehouse. The exact phrase I used to start the last piece I wrote about this wayward dinosaur.

The Warehouse Group [WHS.NZ] is a sad part of this gentleman's portfolio. It hasn't lost me money , yet, and it hasn't made me any money either .

I SHOULD HAVE GOTTEN OUT A LONG TIME AGO. 

On 19th December 2016 I would have got out with a very small profit.

I now hold it at a small loss.

On 20th February 2017 I still hold 5000 of the little buggers but  seeing how the company is about to wring out one last drop of money from the golden goose in March - 1000 people at head office is about 800 too many for it size - I will hold on for the inevitable shares price rise then ditch the little buggers.

20.12.2016 Warehouse Announcement.

The strategy will be announced on Thursday, 9 March 2017. "At that time, we will also provide an update on progress against Group strategy, including details of actions taken to reduce the Group's cost of doing business."

Lets hope - crossing fingers and everything else - they really make some radical changes and Briscoe's The Warehouse.

I'm not sure that Nick Grayston is the right guy for it OR whether owners/customers will even allow him to do it.

I'm sure this is just the beginning of the end for the company and James Pascoe will be left to mop up whatever he doesn't own.

Good luck.

I wont be there.



Share Investor Portfolio @ 17 Feb 2017


The Warehouse Group @ Share Investor


The Warehouse: What the Fuck is it Doing?
Share Investor Q & A: The Warehouse' Ian Morrice  
Share Investor Q & A: Questions to The Warehouse' Ian Morrice
Long Term View: The Warehouse Group Ltd
Share Investor Short: Warehouse Group yield worth a look
The Warehouse Group: 2010 Interim Profit Review
The Warehouse: Big Brands, Big Opportunities
Warehouse strike opportunity to buy
Long Term Play: The Warehouse Group
Share Investor Short: Warehouse Group yield worth a second look
Woolworths supermarket consolidation an indicator of a move on the Warehouse?
Stock of the Week: The Warehouse Group
Warehouse 2009 interim profit a key economic indicator
When will The Warehouse bidders make their move?
Long vs Short: The Warehouse Group
Warehouse bidders ready to lay money down
The Warehouse set to cut lose "extra" impediment
The Warehouse sale could hinge on "Extra" decision
The case for The Warehouse without a buyer
Foodstuffs take their foot off the gas
Woolworths seek leave to appeal to Supreme Court
Warehouse appeal decision imminent
Warehouse decision a loser for all
Warehouse Court of appeal decision in Commerce Commission's favour
MARKETWATCH: The Warehouse
The Warehouse takeover saga continues
Why did you buy that stock? [The Warehouse]
History of Warehouse takeover players suggest a long winding road
Court of Appeal delays Warehouse bid
The Warehouse set for turbulent 2008
The Warehouse Court of Appeal case lay in "Extras" hands
WHS Court of Appeal case could be dismissed next week
Commerce Commission impacts on the Warehouse bottom line
The Warehouse in play
Outcomes of Commerce Commission decision
The fight for control begins soon

Discuss WHS @ Share Investor Forum - Register free 





c Share Investor 2017

Share Investor's 2017 Stock Picks

She helped out last year and was kind enough to help out this year as well.

Well, this year has been a good one for stocks on the NZX. 

6324.26 vs 6824.00 as of today's date. The returns have been around 8%, to the overall investor, if you look at the overall index - that is without accounting for dividends.

I personally have got around a 30% return and that just keeps increasing as time marches on (and they will continue to increase) and I havent really bought much this year - because I don't have any cash - my lawyer currently gets that!

There have been many ups, the market in New Zealand was up to over 7400 in September and many downs, the index was down to 6174 in February.

Likewise the Dow Jones Index was up from 17,148.94 on 4th Jan 2016 to 19,216.24 on the 6th December.

Brexit and a whole host of other "its" have foisted their ugly head at us but regardless the world stays intact, we still make money and we always will. 

I will.

With that in mind I will make a start.

Let me start where I always start with my biggest holding, Sky City Entertainment SKC.

At the moment, it is a steaming buy. Especially at below four bucks. Any lower, and it could go lower, it is a steal. 

Big things are happening at Auckland Casino, Adelaide and these are all wrapped up for a long time yet - till 2048 in Auckland Casino's case.

There is talk surrounding a take over or merger with Sydney's Star City Casino but that is a rumour and I don't care, I don't want to sell.

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare FPH is a perennial pick, picked again last year, it improved substantially this year and took a dive from $10.93 to end up $8.20 at time of writing. 2017 will be its year and you may be able to grab it sub 8 bucks. You just don't know. 

The German injunctions granted against FPH's German subsidiary have been lifted and this will transfer to the injunctions in the US Courts. 
 
Plenty of money being spent, new things being created and sold at less and less cost.

All this means good things if YOU are already a shareholder.

Mainfreight Ltd MFT is well on track to deliver the goods in 2017. 

This has been Mainfreights year, $15.36 on Jan 1 and $20.45 as I write this and a recently announced and increased record profit and a forward looking year looking positive in numbers - the only black spot is the US division. Time will take care of that.

That is why I have been a holder of this company for well over 10 years. I receive a 10% plus net return on this one.

Auckland Airport AIA, it delivered in 2016, it will again in 2017.  It started the year at the high levels of $5.75 and trades this morning, 6th December, at $6.30 and traded as high as $7.75 as recently as September 1.

It could bust through 6 bucks in which case you should be in.

In fact and I will go off topic for a bit, the lower the stock you are interested in buying, have been following, done the research on etc, etc the more you should buy. 

I did this during the GFC and it has paid off handsomely - anyway.

Back to Auckland Airport. 

Its in transition right now - that is it is undergoing transformation - once this transformation is complete the port will be a stunner. Flash and new.

And it will begin again.

With all this building will the port become less profitable? No increasing profits are the rule and they have been for some time.

All those assets that they have, the land, the buildings are all central to the core that this will have lift off. 

Ryman Healthcare RYM is of course a definite push for the entry doors as this keeps getting bigger and bigger. Ignore all broker conflabs about when to buy etc. Do your own research and find the time to get yourself involved.

This company is set to almost double in size within the next 5 years and their Melbourne sites are set to quintuple before 2020 and eventually get far bigger than little old New Zealand. 

Contact Energy CEN, get it while its under or close to 5 bucks. Its got a clear 4-5 years ahead as far as capital returns go.

You just don't know when this stock is going to surprise you. With special div's and share buybacks this share has been a good one in the Share Investor Portfolio.

It will continue.

The Warehouse WHS is included this year as opposed to last year where I dropped it.

I still have long term doubts but with recent buying by one James Pascoe taking him up to about 20% I have to re - consider.

I would rather have a piece of this rather than not, so I am only picking this for some M and A action next year.

Do not pick this for the long term - its a loser. 

Lastly my pick is Hallensteins Glassons HLG, You have to be PATIENT but you can pick it up and all day long its paying 10% plus.

And the best thing about it is that its NOT covered by analysts and brokers (surely two of the most painful words in the market-mans (see what I did there and I will do from now on) So you can make your way without the bluff and bluster.

Its due for a market upgrade in about a weeks time, when they have their AGM in CHCH. 

Everything is looking good for a LARGE upgrade in profit.

Its a good stock.

Told ya Id be biased. Well if I cant get behind my stocks and sell them who else is going to. 

Pick these stocks on dips in their share prices - they ALL have dips.

AND - do your own research - lots of it. 

If your picks line up with mine good and if they don't that's also good because that is what makes a market. 

It makes things interesting as well.

Next year could be another one like we have already had  - some dips but mostly up - or it could - drop but be mostly down. Whatever it is it will provide opportunities for all of us to make money 

See you next year.

Darren

P.S. If you have your own picks put them down at the bottom and tell us WHY you picked them.


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c Share Investor 2016, 2017

The Warehouse: What the ***k is it doing?

Let me begin this piece with I no longer wish to be a shareholder in The Warehouse.

You have seen it before.

The Warehouse finally seems to have done the business, straightened things out and is now on the way to increased sales/revenue and therefore ever increasing profits.

It did this a few days ago when it showed 'promising signs after spending about 200 hundred million odd (this time) on this that and the other' - buying companies left/right/and centre. (the speech patterns are mine but the above takes up a good few years of this and I'm too tired to re-hash the same old stuff)

But is the Warehouse going to buy every retailer in the country in order to be 'Where Everyone Gets a Bargain?' (watch out Dick Smith)

No.

They have to get more people through their doors and the way to do that is through offering THE cheapest branded goods around.

That is it.

Leave the rest up to us.

If by the smallest of chances I'm wrong and this is just the beginning of a new era of the red sheds,

Good luck.

But, you have lost a loyal supporter.



The Warehouse Group @ Share Investor

Share Investor Q & A: The Warehouse' Ian Morrice  
Share Investor Q & A: Questions to The Warehouse' Ian Morrice
Long Term View: The Warehouse Group Ltd
Share Investor Short: Warehouse Group yield worth a look
The Warehouse Group: 2010 Interim Profit Review
The Warehouse: Big Brands, Big Opportunities
Warehouse strike opportunity to buy
Long Term Play: The Warehouse Group
Share Investor Short: Warehouse Group yield worth a second look
Woolworths supermarket consolidation an indicator of a move on the Warehouse?
Stock of the Week: The Warehouse Group
Warehouse 2009 interim profit a key economic indicator
When will The Warehouse bidders make their move?
Long vs Short: The Warehouse Group
Warehouse bidders ready to lay money down
The Warehouse set to cut lose "extra" impediment
The Warehouse sale could hinge on "Extra" decision
The case for The Warehouse without a buyer
Foodstuffs take their foot off the gas
Woolworths seek leave to appeal to Supreme Court
Warehouse appeal decision imminent
Warehouse decision a loser for all
Warehouse Court of appeal decision in Commerce Commission's favour
MARKETWATCH: The Warehouse
The Warehouse takeover saga continues
Why did you buy that stock? [The Warehouse]
History of Warehouse takeover players suggest a long winding road
Court of Appeal delays Warehouse bid
The Warehouse set for turbulent 2008
The Warehouse Court of Appeal case lay in "Extras" hands
WHS Court of Appeal case could be dismissed next week
Commerce Commission impacts on the Warehouse bottom line
The Warehouse in play
Outcomes of Commerce Commission decision
The fight for control begins soon

Discuss WHS @ Share Investor Forum - Register free 
Download WHS company reports

Security Analysis: Sixth Edition, Foreword by Warren Buffett (Security Analysis Prior Editions) by Benjamin Graham Buy new: $41.77 / Used from: $32.40 Usually ships in 24 hours

c Share Investor 2016

Share Investor's 2016 Stock Picks

I want to thank Halle Berry because without her this years picks would

have been more difficult. She helped be with a few stragglers.

Well I'm going to do something different for next years stock picks. I'm just going to pick what I have in my portfolio - minus the weedy ones - and add what I think will be some goers for next year.

So this list is going to be a lot shorter than usual.

Ill start my begging at Sky City Entertainment SKC

This will finally be the start of many a fine year for this company. Many of the rules to relax gaming will apply and they all do so BEFORE the casino is ready to go.

Watch this start to climb from this year.

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare FPH is another pick, picked again last year, it improved substantially this year and will do again in 2016. Plenty of money being spent, new things being created and sold at less and less cost.

All this means good things if YOU are a shareholder.

Mainfreight Ltd MFT is well on track to deliver the goods in 2016.

Money has been spent on warehouses in Auckland, Hamilton, Christchurch, Brisbane, Melbourne, Los Angeles's and one other place I cant remember right now but trust me, they have shelled out the noodles, now they just have to bring them in.

Auckland Airport AIA, it delivered in 2015, it will again in 2016.

Ryman Healthcare RYM is of course a definite push for the entry doors as this keeps getting bigger and bigger. Ignore all broker conflabs about when to buy etc. Do your own research and find the time to get yourself involved.

Contact Energy CEN, get it while its under or close to 5 bucks. Its got a clear 3-4 years ahead as far as capital returns go and there maybe something up CEO Dennis Barnes sleeves.

Lastly pick Hallensteins Glassons HLG, You have to be PATIENT but you can pick it up and all day long its paying 10% plus.

And the best thing about it is that its NOT covered by analysts and brokers (surely two of the most painful words in the market-mans (see what I did there and I will do from now on) dictionary) So you can make your way without the bluff and bluster.

Its a good stock.

Now for two of the ones I don't hold.

Ebos Group EBO, value in this stock AT MUCH LOWER levels. Like in the 7-8 dollars. Good management.

Infratil Ltd IFT, I've been meaning to chuck a few shekels at you but you cant go wrong with their assets and the way the company is run.

Finally, something I see as a contender for M & A activity next year. Trustpower Ltd TPW. That's the one Dennis has his eyes on.

Told ya Id be biased. Well if I cant get behind my stocks and sell them who else is going to.

Pick these stocks on dips in their share prices-they ALL have dips.

The Warehouse WHS excluded because its just about dead the rest of my stocks are headed for the hills in the next couple of years...they will have paid for themselves and start paying me pure profit.

See you next year.

Darren

P.S. If you have your own picks put them down at the bottom.


www.shareinvestorforum.com


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c Share Investor 2015, 2016