Showing posts with label POT. Show all posts
Showing posts with label POT. Show all posts

Monday, January 16, 2012

Port of Auckland Dispute: Time to move on

Nevile Sidney Lodge, Evening Post 1976.

Whatever side you are on over the Ports of Auckland (POA) employment dispute, what would be agreed by most is that the impasse must be ended and it must be ended quickly.

The striking union workers have cost the port millions in lost revenue, cost it its reputation as an easy and reliable place to do business, cost Auckland City in terms of business from related industry and cost New Zealand in terms of its competitiveness and with other markets.

What is at stake now though from this ongoing dispute is the future of the port and they way it will do business in years to come.

The port is a highly inefficient one and makes a poor return on capital invested compared to its peers, especially Port of Tauranga Ltd [POT.NZX] which is a least 20% more efficient in terms of container movements.

The unionised workforce at POA has been thus far unable to get efficiencies that ports like POT have because the union is grounded in past employment practices that date back decades and are no longer relevant in this fast-paced competitive global market we all now compete in.

The Maritime Union and its head, Gary Parsloe, were unwilling - or unable - to come to the party and let go of perks. In one glaring example that would have them being paid for work they didn't do and as a consequence the union workforce at the POA site are in jeopardy of losing heir jobs to workers who are now in the process of being employed on an individual contracting out basis. Their rates of pay are also pretty spectacular for semi-skilled work.

It would have been much better for the union and its members to agree that they must become more efficient of course but that looks unlikely to happen now that their strikes and stoppages have brought the company to its knees and the issue to a head.

We must look at Port of Tauranga for a solution.

Unlike POA, POT has a totally different structure in terms of its workforce, management and organisation as a business.

POT has a non-unionised workforce that is open and flexible in its outlook towards how its employer runs its business and they are fully aware of their need to be competitive in a global environment. As such its efficiency is far higher and its ability to gain business at the expense of competition like POA is clearly obvious.

This doesn't mean that POT workers are short changed though. A large number of the ports workers own shares in the company so are incentivised in that respect to work with the company, rather than just as employees. One cannot underestimate the value of ownership and if POA workers had this incentive available to them you can bet they would be keen work rather than keen to work their employer.

If we compare the financial performance of the two, as Brian Gaynor has in a Herald piece on Saturday we can see a yawning chasm between the two:

"As the accompanying figures show, POA has been hammered by POT in recent years: POA's ebitda has fallen from $92.6 million in 2003 to $74.4 million, whereas POT's has increased from $69.5 million to $95.0 million; POA's ebitda margin has fallen from 55.3 per cent to 40.5 per cent while POT's has increased from 47.6 per cent to 51.2 per cent; most importantly, POA's dividend has declined from $34.5 million to $17.6 million while POT's has increased from $22.8 million to $40.2 million.

This is a huge concern to Auckland ratepayers as the $17.8 million POA dividend represents a return of only 2.1 per cent on POA's $848 million 2005 takeover value.

The biggest difference between the two companies is in terms of costs as they both have fairly similar total revenue, but POA has had total June 2011 year costs of $109.4 million compared with POT's $90.3 million.
This is where the argument about internal employees and outsourcing comes in, the issue at the heart of the current industrial dispute.

In 2010, POA had total employee expenses of $51.9 million compared with only $18.5 million at POT and last year employee benefits plus pension costs were $54.9 million at POA compared with POT's $25.3 million".

Emmerson, NZ Herald, Jan 2012
Never underestimate how much negative pressure politicians have put on the likes of POA as well, one in particular has had a big impact on the port.

Mike Lee, former head of the Auckland Regional Authority (ARC) and now semi-retired on Waiheke Island but still muddling through local politics, lobbied to buy back the partially listed POA in 2005 and put a $858 million value on it and as of today the company is returning just over 2% based on that sale value. Clearly that is not acceptable and something needs to change.

Mr Lee also milked  hundreds of millions of dividends from the port to pay for mostly transport related spending and left the POA balance sheet seriously laden with debt which is still a millstone around its neck today.

In 2006 -7 when POT started discussing merging with POA, Mike Lee and his ARC put the kibosh on the merger because not only was it an ATM for spending for the council, Mike has a philosophical and political view that this kind of asset should be publicly owned and dirty private enterprise should keep their mitts off it, never mind that the merger would have brought economies of scale to the port, economic stimulation for Auckland and Tauranga and jobs for union and non-union workers alike. Shame about politics huh? Especially the left.

To this point, selling down a minority stake of say 49% share in POA and re-listing it on the NZX  (as will be done with New Zealand's state electricity monopolies) will help make politicians more honest and businesslike in what they do rather than political and move the port ahead competitively. A hybrid ownership structure is the best model to achieve this with a ratepayer/taxpayer owed business entity and has been done quite successfully with Air New Zealand Ltd [AIR.NZX] Auckland International Airport Ltd [AIA.NZX] and of course POT itself which has been a stunning success under hybrid ownership.

The Productivity Commission came out with a report last week not only critical of unions and their role in the ports demise but also recommended a part sale of New Zealand ports to help logistics and competition in this area move into the 21st century rather than stuck in the time warp of the 1951 port strike that was only resolved when the military moved in.

I have some sympathy with critics - including some a few comments in the Productivity Commission's report mentioned above - who say management share blame over this employment dispute, and I would have to agree, but only in terms of the length of time this dispute has drawn on - 11 months and counting. Management should have taken a tougher stance with the inflexible union and its head months ago and so they can, in this respect only, be held partly responsible for losing valuable customers like Fonterra and shipping line Maersk.

Because of the delays in resolving this bitter dispute, jobs have and will be lost directly within the port and in related industry and reputations tarnished.

It is important that this situation be resolved as quickly as possible for all the reasons outlined above and more. In a way, perhaps the stubborn, implacable union stance has been positive in a way as it has brought the dispute to a head. The port will be able to restructure in a way that will protect its long-term future. For the Port of Auckland to remain status quo in terms of its employment and business structure will mean that eventually it will become irrelevant and the Port of Tauranga will be the first port of call for importers and exporters.

Unions must keep this in mind, this is not 1951 when we had full employment, guaranteed markets and  a very rosy economic outlook. The 1951 Strike had 22,000 (compared to just few thousand today) wharfies striking for a 15% pay rise when they were offered a very generous 9% and the militant union held New Zealand to ransom for almost 6 months.

In 2012 there is no place for similar militancy and intransigence on the part of the Maritime Union. Like 1951 it is and was a turning point for unions in this country. It was the first major blow to its power in 1951 and in subsequent years unions have negotiated their way to less than 10% of employees who remain in a union.

As in 2012 the majority of the public were opposed to the 1951 strike. On public support alone we need to sort this dispute out and do it quickly but of course you cannot ignore the economic opportunities that will arise if striking workers are just a little bit more flexible in their attitudes to their employer and ultimately NZ Inc.

This is no time for self protection and grandstanding by Gary Parsloe and the Maritime Union, the country and its economic future are at stake.


POT @ Share Investor

Share Price Alert: Port of Tauranga Ltd 2
Share Price Alert: Port of Tauranga Ltd
Long Term View: Port Of Tauranga Ltd
Port in a storm
Ports of Auckland put a shot over competitor's bow

Discuss POT @ Share Investor Forum
Download POT Company Reports


Tuesday, September 6, 2011

Share Price Alert: Port of Tauranga Ltd 2



Port of Tauranga Ltd [POT.NZX] shares have continued their spectacular run from the last Share Investor Share Price Alert. Since that post on May 9 when POT shares finished trading at $8.70 on May 6 the share price has increased by $1.26 or 14.5% in an overall market that has been flatish.

This is after a record 2011 full year profit result and good future prospects based on increased exports and the port being favoured over its biggest rival, Ports of Auckland, by big shipping lines.

This latest share price rise comes off a base September 2010 share price of $6.75 where POT shares have piled on almost two bucks or nearly 30% to finish trading at the above mentioned $8.70. 2011 alone has seen its share price rise by just over 2 dollars, the bulk of that rise being in the last 5 months.

The market has been over exuberant in my opinion and while the company is a quality one and its long term future looks bright its share price is overvalued and is due for a pull-back.

Its fundamentals are looking thin and there are quality stocks on the NZX that have lower multiples than POT and are currently a better buy.


P/E 22.860
EPS $0.436
NTA $5.090
Gross Div Yield 4.303%

Wait for the pull-back it you have been looking to buy POT and consider selling soon if you were going to anyway.



Share Price Alert Series



Contact Energy Ltd 4

The Warehouse Group Ltd 2
Contact Energy Ltd 3
Contact Energy Ltd 2
Xero Ltd 2
Pumpkin Patch Ltd 4
Pumpkin Patch Ltd 3
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 4
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 3
Port of Tauranga Ltd
Freightways Ltd 3
Goodman Fielder Ltd 2
Freightways Ltd 2
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 2
Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Charlies Group Ltd
Fletcher Building Ltd 2
Contact Energy Ltd
Steel & Tube Ltd
Telecom New Zealand Ltd
New Zealand Stock Exchange Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd 2
The Warehouse Group Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd 2
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd 2
Fletcher Building Ltd
Restaurant Brands Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd
Tourism Holdings
Goodman Fielder Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
NZ Refining Ltd
Freightways Ltd
Xero Ltd

POT @ Share Investor


Share Price Alert: Port of Tauranga Ltd
Long Term View: Port Of Tauranga Ltd
Port in a storm
Ports of Auckland put a shot over competitor's bow

Discuss POT @ Share Investor Forum
Download POT Company Reports



c Share Investor 2011






Monday, May 9, 2011

Share Price Alert: Port of Tauranga Ltd



Ports of Tauranga Ltd [POT.NZX] have had a truely spectacular run share price wise in 2011.

From a September 2010 share price of $6.75 POT shares have piled on almost two bucks or nearly 30% to finish trading at $8.70 on Friday 6 May. 2011 alone has seen its share price rise by just over 1 dollar, the bulk of that rise being in the last 6-7 weeks alone.

This has come as a result of a good performance for the 2011 half year result, up a stunning 23% on the 2009 result.

This is a result of massively increased cargo volumes through the port, especially imports. These volumes seem mostly be related to increases in the imports and exports from the farming sector and look set to continue if record commodity prices hold and especially if the US dollar strengthens.

You would have to say that the market has factored in reasonably well where the company is going in the medium term so the company may well be fairly priced given that everything seems to be going well for the company at present.

Having said that, ports are highly cyclical businesses and if you are looking for a price pullback and have wanted this great company for your portfolio you might want to be patient and wait for an inevitable weakness in cargo volumes.

Timing here is everything.


Share Price Alert Series

Port of Tauranga Ltd
Freightways Ltd 3
Goodman Fielder Ltd 2
Freightways Ltd 2
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 2
Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Charlies Group Ltd
Fletcher Building Ltd 2
Contact Energy Ltd
Steel & Tube Ltd
Telecom New Zealand Ltd
New Zealand Stock Exchange Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd 2
The Warehouse Group Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd 2
Fletcher Building Ltd
Restaurant Brands Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd
Tourism Holdings
Goodman Fielder Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
NZ Refining Ltd
Freightways Ltd
Xero Ltd


POT @ Share Investor


Long Term View: Port Of Tauranga Ltd
Port in a storm
Ports of Auckland put a shot over competitor's bow

Discuss POT @ Share Investor Forum




c Share Investor 2011




Saturday, May 7, 2011

Craigs Investment Partners Picks Top Stocks

In a NZ Herald column this morning Mark Lister from Craigs Investment Partners discusses the virtues or otherwise of new investors buying "penny stocks" and the quality of the businesses that might be behind the stock price and as thinly on the ground as they are on the NZX, that you must look to the fundamentals of the business.

Mark indicates some qualities he would like to see in a business before investing:

1: A business without too much competition.
2: Good balance sheet with room for debt.
3: A track record of good and increasing earnings.
4: Generally defensive in nature.
5: Good management.

I agree with these 5 points but must add that I see good management as the first tick before investing, well above the other point Mark made.

I must also note buying cheap face value stocks is not always an indication that the company is a dog - it maybe just suffering a temporary dip in performance for whatever reason - but it is more often than not a good indicator.

With this in mind Mark has picked 11 stocks that fit his criteria and that he has invested his clients in and I will comment below on these picks:


The following is a list of stocks by the returns they have delivered over the past decade, using figures that we calculate ourselves for the 10 years ended March 31, 2011. These figures take into account dividends and capital growth in share prices and are adjusted for share splits, rights issues and so on. This list is not exhaustive and is obviously limited by space.

This list is not any sort of quality ranking, but it does show how well some of our companies have done over the past decade.

Freight-forwarding company Mainfreight Ltd [MFT.NZX] tops the list. It has returned 29 per cent a year over the decade, or a total return of 1216 per cent. In 2003 Mainfreight published a book on its first 25 years. It was a great read and it talked a lot about the 100-year vision for the company. In the years since, it has made rapid progress, cementing its local market position and expanding its operations around the world. Company leadership is top-flight and it has a strong focus on the long term.

TrustPower Ltd [TPW.NZX] comes next with a 10-year gain of 22.6 per cent a year. The Tauranga-based generator and retailer of electricity has carved out a defensive niche in it sector. Its strong renewables focus has been a point of difference, as has its ability to manage its retail operation better than any rival while maintaining its premium customer service offering.

Ryman Healthcare Ltd [RYM.NZX] is not far behind with 22.2 per cent a year. One of our market's biggest success stories, Ryman is a leading company in the aged care sector. It recently announced it will be expanding into Australia and locally will be increasing its build rate from 450 to 550 units and beds a year to meet rising demand for its services. Ryman has also grown its dividend handsomely. Investors astute enough to buy Ryman shares 10 years ago are enjoying an income from dividends of over 18 per cent a year on their original cost.

There aren't many big development or infrastructure projects in this country that happen without Fletcher Building Ltd [FBU.NZX]. This strong market share in construction and building materials has helped it deliver a return to shareholders of 20.7 per cent since 2001. The company continues to expand overseas.

A company that many people perhaps will not have heard of is Ebos Ltd [EBO.NZX], a healthcare distributor. It has returned 17.1 per cent a year and is another stock that has delivered strong dividend growth. It has a strong market position here and is expanding in Australia.

Port of Tauranga Ltd [POT.NZX] has returned 15.5 per cent a year and continues to go from strength to strength. Strong demand for logs from Asia is boosting export volumes and revenues, but this company is much more than a short-term story. It has built a strategically important position, has valuable land assets, good transport links and room to grow.

Auckland International Airport Ltd [AIA.NZX] comes next with a return of 12.6 per cent a year. The airport is New Zealand's key contact point with the outside world. Management continues its focus on developing the airport's property precinct and improving the overall service offering and efficiency.

Carpet maker Cavalier Corp Ltd [CAV.NZX] comes next with a return of 11.8 per cent a year. Cavalier clearly operates in a tough sector and faces strong competition, and has to cope with demand for its carpets moving up and down with the economic cycle. Despite all of this the company has done well and delivered excellent growth and dividends for shareholders.

Express package company Freightways Ltd [FRE.NZX] has delivered a solid 10.6 per cent a year over the decade. It is a well-managed company with strong brands such as New Zealand Couriers and Post Haste Couriers. It continues to expand its market position and has expanded into Australia in the information management sector.

Property for Industry Ltd [PFI.NZX] is one of the best-performed listed property vehicles with a return of 9.4 per cent a year. It has delivered consistent increases in its dividend over the years and has always impressed with its astute management of its portfolio of industrial properties.

No list of high-quality stocks in this country could exclude Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd [FPH.NZX]. It produces world-class products such as heated humidification products including respiratory humidifiers, breathing circuits, infant resuscitators and infant warmers. It is a leader in products for the treatment of obstructive sleep apnoea. It has returned 7.9 per cent a year over the decade. Given 98 per cent of sales are overseas, the strong NZ dollar has impacted on results.

Mark Lister, NZ Herald, May 7 2011.

Now I haven't checked Mark's figures for accuracy but if you check below this post in the Long Term View series of posts you will find there are other stocks that have gleaned far higher returns than his picks, especially when you hold for greater than the 10 years he has covered.

I agree wholeheartedly with Marks first pick, it is the best managed company on the NZX, but he hasn't been critical of his other picks or pointed out that all of these companies have been impacted by the financial ups and downs of the last 2-3 years. Fletcher Building for example had a disastrous history through the 1990's and up to the point where Mark makes his calculations, the company they were before they became FBU almost went into receivership.

An essential point missing from Mark's
stock picking criteria is timing of the investment. You must buy when the stock you are after is at a level where its fundamentals meet what current returns you are after and therefore what future returns you might get. There is no point buying what some might seem as good quality companies unless you include this as a feature in your picking.


Finally, it is great to see people like Mark putting their money where their mouth is and buying and disclosing what they are investing in on behalf of clients. It would be nice to see him disclose what he has in his own personal portfolio though.


Share Investor's Annual Stock Picks


Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks: Looking Back
Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2010 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2009 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2008 Stock Picks

Brokers 2011 Stock Picks


Long Term View Series



ASB Capital Preference Shares (A)
ASB Capital Preference Shares (B)
Auckland International Airport
Air New Zealand
AMP Ltd
ANZ Banking Group Ltd
Briscoe Group Ltd
Cavalier Corporation Ltd
Comvita Ltd
Contact Energy Ltd
Delegats Group Ltd
EBOS Group Ltd
Fletcher Building Ltd
Fisher & Paykel Appliances
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Freightways Ltd
Goodman Fielder Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
Hellaby Holdings Ltd
Infratil Ltd
Kirkcaldie & Stains Ltd
Kiwi Income Property Trust Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd
Michael Hill International Ltd
Metlifecare Ltd
Methven Ltd
Mowbray Collectables Ltd
NZ Oil & Gas Ltd
New Zealand Refining Ltd
New Zealand Stock Exchange Ltd
Nuplex Industries Ltd
PGG Wrightson Ltd
Port Of Tauranga Ltd
Postie Plus Group Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Restaurant Brands Ltd
Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Sanford Ltd
Sealegs Corp Ltd
Scott Technology Ltd
Skellerup Ltd
Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd
Sky Network Television Ltd
Smiths City Group Ltd
Steel & Tube Ltd
Telecom NZ Ltd
Telstra Corp Ltd
Tourism Holdings Ltd
Trustpower Ltd
Turners Auctions Ltd
Turners & Growers Ltd
The Warehouse Group Ltd
Vector Ltd
Wakefield Health Ltd
Westpac Banking Group Ltd




c Share Investor 2011


Monday, April 11, 2011

Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks: Looking Back

It has been nearly 4 months since the Share Investor 2011 Stock Picks and I thought it might be appropriate now to look back at how those picks have done. Please keep in mind that my criteria for picking stocks is long term gains and also that the stockmarket as a whole has risen in the 4 months (see 6 month chart below) that has passed so any gains must factor in these two key points.

I am discovering any gains and losses from my picks as I write this post rather than looking at them first and then making a decision to publish, so you, dear readers, will discover how well or badly I did as I did.



I will outline below what price the stock was picked at and how much it has gained or lost since the stock picks came out on December 17 2010.

Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks: Looking back


Picks from the NZX


Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
[
FPH.NZX]

Image

Picked at $3.06c on December 17 2011 and reaching a post pick high of $3.23, at close of trade Friday 8 April was trading at $3.06c.

0% gain.

Xero Ltd
[XRO.NZX]


Picked at $2.38c on December 17 2011 and reaching a post pick high of $3.16, at close of trade Friday 8 April was trading at $2.50c.

A 5% gain.



Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd
[
SKC.NZX]

Image

Picked at $3.23c on December 17 2011, with the addition of a 8c net dividend, and reaching a post pick high of $3.50, at close of trade Friday 8 April was trading at $3.41c.

A 8% gain.



Charlies Group Ltd
[
CHA.NZX]

Picked at 17.5c on December 17 2011 and reaching a post pick high of 28c, at close of trade Friday 8 April was trading at 27c.

A 54% gain.


Michael Hill International Ltd
[
MHI.NZX]

Picked at 85c on December 17 2011, with the addition of a 1.5c net dividend and reaching a post pick high of 92c, at close of trade Friday 8 April was trading at 88c.

A 5% gain.



New Zealand Refining Ltd
[
NZR.NZX]
Picked at $4.20c on December 17 2011, with the addition of a 10c net dividend and reaching a post pick high of $5.20c, at close of trade Friday 8 April was trading at $4.75c.

A 20% gain.



New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd
[
NZO.NZX]
Picked at 86c on December 17 2011, reaching a post pick high of 94c, at close of trade Friday 8 April was trading at 94c.

A 10% gain.


Minor NZX Picks

Kathmandu Holdings Ltd [
KMD.NZX]

A 42% gain.

Port of Tauranga Ltd [POT.NZ]

A 14% gain

Auckland International Airport Ltd [AIA.NZX]

A 6% gain.

Telecom NZ Ltd [TEL.NZX]

A 6% loss.

Fisher & Paykel Appliances Ltd [FPA.NZX]

A 15% gain.



ASX Picks

Tatts Group Ltd [
TTS.ASX] A 10% loss.
Tabcorp Holdings Ltd [TAH.ASX] A 3% gain.
Reef Casino Trust[RCT.ASX] A 5% loss.


Nasdaq


Yum ! Brands Inc [YUM.NASDAQ] A 0% gain.

Conclusion & Outlook for 2011

Returns ranged from a 10% loss for Tatts Group Ltd [TTS.ASX] up to a 54% gain for Charlies Group Ltd [CHA.NZX]. Averaged out my 2011 share picks have returned an average net return of 10.33% over slightly less than 4 months if I included them in equal portions in a portfolio. This compares to a return of 4% for the NZX50 as a whole. (see NZX50 chart at top of post)

The market overall appears to be overvalued to me - with the exception of one or two stocks that have lost some value - and I have not bought any shares for well over a year now. My own portfolio has gained 13% since I began re-tracking it for this blog back in October 2010 and I cant see the market gaining much more for 2011 due to very poor global economic conditions and uncertainty as to where the globe is heading in the short to medium term.

Disclosure : I own FPH, WHS, SKC, MHI, AIA, shares in the
Share Investor Portfolio.


Share Investor's Annual Stock Picks

Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2010 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2009 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2008 stock picks

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Brokers 2011 Stock Picks


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The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition)
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Security Analysis: The Classic 1934 Edition
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c Share Investor 2010 & 2011

Monday, January 3, 2011

Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks

Originally posted 17 Dec 2010

Share Investor's 2012 Stock Picks

It is that time of the year, to pick stocks for 2011 and time for my stock picking monkey to come out of a self imposed 12 months hiatus for another stab at the stockmarket pages.

It is the 4th edition this year and once again impacted by looking after my 16 month old girl - she had no direct say in what the stock picking monkey chose for 2011 but will be encouraged to throw a dart or two at the end of 2011.

In the face of a continued global recession, an uncertain economic future that had a big impact at the end of 2009 and continues today 2011 might be be harder to pick than 2010.

2010 was a much better year for stocks than 2009, with stock prices overall coming well off 2009 lows.

Please keep in mind dear readers that the picks are my own and they reflect my investment philosophy and not necessarily anyone else's.

My picks are based on a long-term view, regardless of the current short to medium term market turmoil and economic uncertainty.

NB: Since I think most of my portfolio consist of the best stocks on the New Zealand market, I found it difficult to pick stocks outside my realm of self interest.


Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks


Picks from the NZX


Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
[FPH.NZX]



I will kick off my picks with a company that I still consider will be one of the big successes of the next 5-10 years and one I included in the 2008, 2009 & 2010 Share Investor stock picks, Fisher and Paykel Healthcare, the health care products provider.

I had it as a pick for 2010 and it is down around 20c from this time in 2010, so that makes it a better pick than last year considering its good long term prospects.

Company forecasts for the 2011 year are understandably sketchy because of the US dollar volatility but US revenues are set to grow significantly, as they have done for the past decade.

Any significant movement in the value of the NZ dollar means a substantial rise or fall in profit, as the bulk of company revenues are in the US dollar and 2011 half year profit results have been impacted significantly from the weakening US dollar.

Fisher's profits are largely immune from the current market turmoil as buyers simply have to have the products that the health care company makes regardless of a global recession.

A future global player in the sector they operate in.


Fisher & Paykel Heathcare @ Share Investor

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Discuss FPH @ Share Investor Forum
Download FPH Company Reports


Disc I own FPH shares in the Share Investor Portfolio


Xero Ltd

[XRO.NZX]




Currently Xero Ltd, the online accounting software company, is a niche player in an industry dominated by global players like Quicken and MYOB and it increased its customer base significantly in 2010 and looks set to build on 2010's gains.

It is presently building its customer base to get "critical mass".

The buzz in the tech industry surrounding Xero is reflected in the amount of support the company has from insiders and it could be well a big player in time to come. The company has had some significant financial backers from those who know Xero well but Mums and Dads are still largely absent from the shareholder register.

It has yet to make any money but is expected to break even in the latter half of 2011 and should start to see some profit in the next few years.

XRO is a little riskier than most investments and the share price has increased well over the latter part of 2010 so that risk increases slightly.

If the hype is only partially matched by concrete results this share will take off.



Xero @ Share Investor

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Share Investor Interview: Xero's Rod Drury
Xero Ltd: Download full Company Analysis
Rod Drury on Xero and Growing Business
Xero set for surprise to the Market?
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Share Investor's 2010 Stock Picks
Stock of the Week: Xero Ltd

Discuss Xero @ Share Investor Forum
Download Xero Company Reports


Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd
[SKC.NZX]



Sky City Entertainment has had a brilliant 2010, with a record FY 2010 profit at the hands of an inspirational leader and a number of strategies planned and executed to produce pleasing results for shareholders. Like 2009, the share price of the company has not however tracked its increased fortunes, plumbing the depths of below NZ$2.80 and settling of late in the low 3 dollar range. It looks to be good value as a result of this low share price relative to its prospects.

There is promise however for 2011. The Rugby World Cup will boost SKC's 4 Casinos and CEO Nigel Morrison has indicated double digit growth for FY 2011.

Buy on weakness if this company has already been in your sights.



Sky City Entertainment Group @ Share Investor

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Chart of the Week: Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd
Share Investor discusses Convention Centre proposal with CEO Nigel Morrison
Share Investor Q & A: Sky City CEO, Nigel Morrison
Sky City Entertainment: CEO Nigel Morrison discusses 2010 HY
Sky City Convention Centre Expansion a Money Loser: Part Two
Sky City Convention Centre Expansion a Money loser
Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd: Download full Company analysis
Sky City 2010 full year profit looking good
Long Term View: Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd
Sky City Entertainment: CEO Nigel Morrison discusses 2010 Half Year
Sky City Entertainment Group 2010 Interim Profit Review
Sky City to focus on Gaming
Sky City debts levels now more manageable
Insider Trading on Sky City shares
Sky City Profit Upgrade: Always on the Cards
Sky City's Current Cinema "Boom" a Horror Story in Disguise
Stock of the Week: Sky City Entertainment Group
Are Insiders selling Sky City Stock?
Sky City Entertainment 2009 Interim Result Preamble
2008 Sky City profit analysis
Sky City share offer confusing and unfair for smaller shareholders
Sky City Entertainment 2008 Full Year profit results , NZX release, 2008 full year presentation, result briefing webcast, financial statements
Sky City 2008 profit preamble
Sky City outlines a clear future plan
As recession bites Sky City bites back
Sky City Assets: Buy, sell and hold
Why did you buy that stock? [Sky City Entertainment]
Sky City Share Volumes set tongues wagging
Sky City half year exceptional on cost cutting
NZX Press release: Sky City profit to HY end Dec 2007
Sky City Cinemas no Blockbuster

Sky City Entertainment share price drop
New Broom set to sweep
Sky City Management: Blind, deaf and numb
Sky City sale could be off
Opposition to takeover
Premium for control
Sky City receives takeover bid
Sky City Casino Full Year Profit to June 30 2007
Setting the record straight
Sky City CEO resigns
Sky City Casino: Under performing
Sky City Casino 2007 HY Profit(analysis)
Sky City Casino 2007 HY Profit

Sky City Convention Centre @ Share Investor

Share Investor discusses Convention Centre proposal with CEO Nigel Morrison
Sky City Convention Centre Expansion a Money Loser: Part Two
Sky City Convention Centre Expansion a Money loser
SKC Convention Centre power-point slide illustrations & SKC submission to Auckland City Council

Discuss SKC @ Share Investor Forum
Download SKC Company Reports


Disc I own SKC shares in the Share Investor Portfolio


Charlies Group Ltd
[CHA.NZX]



Not a stock I expected to pick after being a big critic of it over the last few years. Charlies Group Ltd has managed to wangle its way into my affections for 2011. It did this simply by finally showing a profit for the full year to June 2010. Previously to this it had been mired in mounting losses and a number of capital raisings but their strategy of growing the business over the last 3-4 years has paid off. They recently expanded in a vast push across OZ into over 750 Coles Supermarkets and this gives them the leverage there to increase sales manifold times over 2010 levels.

The share price, at 17.5c, is almost 3x more than it was at its lowest level in 2010 but prospects for the company look good due to Australia.

Buy on thinly traded weakness.

Charlies Group @ Share Investor


Share Investor Q & A: Charlies Group CEO Stefan Lepionka
Chart of the Day: Charlies Group Ltd
Charlies Group: A Triumph of Style over Substance
Charlies juicing through Shareholder cash

Discuss CHA @ Share Investor Forum
Download CHA Company Reports


Michael Hill International Ltd
[MHI.NZX]



Michael Hill International has had a tough last couple of years but the most recent result has been pleasing to say the least.

It has largely put the cost of its expansion in North America behind it by closing a number of stores and consolidating in Chicago and seeing how things go there before further mainland USA expansion.

It has done reasonably well in its main markets in Australasia but Canada remains weak.

The share price has gained more than 30% since I picked it in the 2010 Share Investor Stock Picks but MHI still remains a good long term investment with good growth potential and business fundamentals.


Disc I own MHI shares in the Share Investor Portfolio


Michael Hill International @ Share Investor

October 2010 Top Stock: Michael Hill International Ltd

Michael Hill International: Is Kim Kardashian the right fit?
Michael Hill International: Tall Tales & Rumours
Hill Family makes Claytons Takeover bid for Michael Hill International
Michael Hill International Ltd: 2010 Full Year Profit Analysis
Long Term View: Michael Hill International Ltd
Michael Hill International: 2010 half year profit commentary
Michael Hill Makeover kicks off
Michael Hill International: 2009 full year profit commentary
Toughen Up: What I have learned from the hard times
Stock of the Week: Michael Hill International
Michael Hill TV3 60 Minutes Interview
Long VS Short: Michael Hill International
Marketwatch: Michael Hill International
Michael Hill's profit shines
Michael Hill takes on the windy city
Why did you buy that stock? [Michael Hill International]
MHI has defined growth strategy

MHI profit sparkles

Discuss MHI @ Share Investor Forum
Download MHI Company Reports


New Zealand Refining Ltd
[NZR.NZX]



With low refining rates, massive capital expenditure and plant shutdowns largely behind them and a rising global oil prices, 2011 looks to be a resurgent year for New Zealand Refining Ltd.

Those higher oil prices will see this stock rise and it has already and the oil price rise has been a significant one. It has been mainly due to a very cold Northern Winter bumping up all sorts of petrochemical products so it is unclear just how sustainable the oil price rise will be. Having said that the recent rise is bound to gain some traction even when the Northern ice melts away and 2011 rolls along.

Look for an increased dividend in 2011 as profit increases that will underpin a good share price rise from current levels.

NZR @ Share Investor

Stock of the Week - Reprise: NZ Refining Ltd
Chart of the Week: New Zealand Refining Ltd
Stock of the Week: NZ Refining Ltd

Discuss NZR @ Share Investor Forum
Download NZR Company Reports


New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd
[NZO.NZX]




Apart from its 29% holding in the now insolvent Pike River Coal Ltd [PRC.NZX] and the financial fallout from that, NZ Oil & Gas Ltd has had a reasonable year considering the overall lowish global oil prices for 2010.

The Pike River Coal Mine disaster has provided an opportunity for investors to get this stock relatively cheap considering it has a reasonable volume of oil and gas left to pull out of the ground and several drilling prospects on the boil.

The fact that global oil prices per barrel are rising and should pass US$100 will give Oil & Gas the impetus to get more out of the ground and return some higher margins for their products.

The only drawback is a relatively high Kiwi/US dollar cross but the Kiwi seems to have peaked out late 2010 as the dire state of our economy and deficits become clearer.

Watch for a good bounce in profit for 2011 as a result of these favourable key points come together.


NZ Oil & Gas @ Share Investor

NZ Oil & Gas Ltd: Impacted by Pike River Coal

Long Term View: NZ Oil & Gas Ltd

Discuss NZO @ Share Investor Forum
Download NZO Company Reports


Other Notable Quotables

NZX

Kathmandu Holdings Ltd [KMD.NZX] A retailer currently under pressure. Value below NZ$1.50.

Port of Tauranga Ltd [POT.NZ] New Zealand's leading port company with good upside on increased exports and a good dividend. Best managed port in New Zealand with the best long term prospects.

Auckland International Airport Ltd [AIA.NZX] A good monopoly at historically cheap prices, doing marginally better in 2010 and set to pick up profit in 2011.

Telecom NZ Ltd [TEL.NZX] Value in the company as a hedge against investment inflation. Dividends are over 10% net PA at current share prices (low NZ$2.10 - 2.20 range) and stock worth buying at these low levels for the return and a possible recovery in share price due to its participation in the high speed fibre roll-out and subsequent business around that.

Fisher & Paykel Appliances Ltd [FPA.NZX] has an outside chance of coming right in 2011 if the housing market starts to show some growth and its relatively low share price is a good entry point for a company still in transition from a monopoly to a more competitive model of doing business.

ASX


Tatts Group Ltd [TTS.ASX]
Tabcorp Holdings Ltd [TAH.ASX]
Reef Casino Trust[RCT.ASX]

All Australian casino companies under pressure with sluggish returns and relatively low share prices and ripe for mergers and acquisitions. Possible suitor, Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd [SKC.NZX] that is doing well , has low debt levels and access to over a billion NZ dollars in borrowing facilities and could easily find more if needed.

Nasdaq


A pick from 2010, Yum ! Brands Inc [YUM.NASDAQ] A target of 10% sales growth for 2010-2011 after a 15% plus profit growth in 2010 and more good growth to come from China & India make this company a finger Lickin proposition.

Conclusion
& Outlook for 2011


2011 may well be a year of marking time for global stockmarkets. As uncertainty surrounds the fragile state of many economies. The big gains made on stockmarkets in 2010 could materialize for some as nervousness over the aforementioned leaves them to take cash off the table. I think there is more bad news in relation to the global economy to come, but that is only my opinion.

That aside if you can, some listed companies have done well in 2010 and will continue to do so in 2011 but others will find the going tough as cash flow dries up, debt mounts and interest rates bite.

If there is no upturn in the economy, stockmarket share price weakness will have me poised to buy further shares in some of the companies I own in the Share Investor Portfolio with surplus cash of over $16,000.00 in dividends rather than with borrowed funds. I am looking at buying more Fisher and Paykel Healthcare Ltd [FPH.NZX] shares should the share price fall and The Warehouse Group Ltd [WHS.NZX] is on my radar again after a recent share price correction.

Remember, the stocks I have picked above are based on my investment criteria and may not fit yours and of course you could have a different opinion. I would love to hear your opinion and any picks you may have.

Have a look at what I have to say, take it on board or not and then do your own research to see if you might agree with me.

Lastly, I wish you all good luck and a prosperous 2011, we could all use it!


**Just an added footnote. Please feel free to post your own stock picks for 2011. The only requirement is that you say why and declare any financial interest. Post them below at the bottom of this piece or click here.


Disc
  I own FPH, WHS, SKC, MHI, AIA, shares in the
Share Investor Portfolio.



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