Showing posts with label MFT. Show all posts
Showing posts with label MFT. Show all posts

Thursday, May 4, 2017

Ready Fire Aim

Ready Fire Aim: The Mainfreight Story

I started reading this book soon after it came out about 4 years ago.

I started reading it again, and I forgot dear reader that I didn't refer to it here on this blog at the time.

So now I'm going to.

It's really a book that you should file away with Security Analysis and The Intelligent Investor - because you can go back to them time and time again.

It is called Ready Fire Aim: The Mainfreight Story by Keith Davies.

Its an easy read and methinks the Author may have been wrapped up in the whole Mainfreight ethos but I don't care. It's true and wise to the point of an instruction manual on how a business, any business, should be run.

It starts out at the beginning of the company and moves along briskly to give a warts and all account of how Bruce Plested, the founder of Mainfreight did it. This is the story of a company built on the belief that with passion anything is possible. 

Mainfreight was founded in 1977 by the visionary Bruce Plested, who set out to make the company a family, a team, where everyone has a share in the riches and where the word 'management' is banned. 

Bruce and his mate Don Braid have foul mouths. Fuck you is littered through the book and used by Braid and Plested when they don't like what is going on and to various figures throughout the book and over the years to some people who are still friends and business partners and to others who are not. It is not used like "the" it's used to make a point - to the reader. 

The Mainfreight instruction manual is short and to the point. Feel the fear but do it anyway. This is a world where budgets are deemed 'bullshit'. Why spend time preparing figures that are invariably out of date before the ink is dry? Just make more than last year! That is so simple but true. You've got to keep on striving to make things better every day

Initially there would be catastrophic ventures in Australia and America and finally a jaw-dropping moment in Europe with Wim Bosman when Don Braid and his team made their biggest purchase ever only to see most of the turnover and half the profit walk out the door. But they subsequently succeeded - as the have with just about every other purchase and used that success company wide.

This book take one on a journey from small transport company at the bottom of the world to truly successful global logistics company.

You really should give this a re-read and if you havent read it yet go out and buy a copy.



Mainfreight @ Share Investor

Read the MFT 2011 FY Presentation

Is Mainfreight Worth 30 Bucks a Share?
Is Mainfreight Worth 20 Bucks Plus a Share?
Share Price Alert: Mainfreight Ltd 2
Mainfreight's European Acquisition a Good Move
Share Price Alert: Mainfreight Ltd
Investing in the Stockmarket: Timing your Purchase
Stock of the Week: Mainfreight Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd: 2011 1st quarter Profit Analysis
VIDEO: Don Braid with Paul Homes on the Economy
Mainfreight Ltd: Full Year 2010 Profit Analysis
Long Term View: Mainfreight Ltd
Share Investor Interview: Mainfreight's MD Don Braid
Stock of the Week: Mainfreight Ltd
Questions to Mainfreight's MD Don Braid
I'm Buying: Mainfreight Management delivers the goods
Mainfreight Annual Report Packs a Punch
Analysis - Mainfreight Ltd: FY Profit to 31/03/09
Mainfreight VS KiwiRail: The Sequel
Long VS Short: Mainfreight Ltd
Why did you buy that stock? [Mainfreight Ltd]
Mainfreight 2008 Annual report worth reading
KiwiRail will cost Mainfreight
Mainfreight keeps on truckin
A rare breed
Share Investor's 2008 stock picks

Discuss MFT @ Share Investor Forum
Download Mainfreight Company Reports

Ready Fire Aim: The Mainfreight Story
Ready Fire Aim: The Mainfreight Story by Keith Davies







Share Investor 2017


Monday, April 24, 2017

Have Times Changed?

Image result for old vs new investors cartoon

It seems to me that since I have been invested in the market - 20 years this year with RBD as virginal player - that some things have changed but one thing has stayed the same. If you care to find out what has stayed the same you'll have to wait a tad - if you don't want to wait I don't care.

Go elsewhere.

It seems that people have just lost patience.

That is if people don't get what they want, when they want it they will simply just drop a stock - if it has a particularly tough time but is otherwise doing ok.

Now I haven't done a study into it, I'm just thinking as I put pen to paper but my take on this phenomenon is that it has some basis in fact.

You of course have the ideal institutional investors, like your ACC's and superannuation funds that have largely remained unchanged. They still have money in companies like FPH and MFT for the long term, regardless of short term fluctuations.

AND they are winners.

I'm talking about the individual investors such as myself, who because of technology and age - yes I'm aware that there are many investors far younger than me - are more aware of the ability because of the aforementioned tech and because of their changing investing personalities that are perhaps different from you and me - who may be a little older and think differently when it comes to investing.

Perhaps there's a wee bit of age differentiation from generation to generation and it happens naturally as we get older, we perhaps have different savings and investing goals than we did perhaps 20 years ago.

I don't know.

I didn't get my current investment profile straight away it was around 2007 that I starting reading books like Security Analysis and The Intelligent Investor that I formed the view - along with a hell of a lot of my own thinking - that the only form of investing that really mattered was long-term.

I think that this long-term/short-term thinking and its relevance to the current topic of conversation is the main rub - of sorts.

I still think investing has somewhat changed overall. The short term is, in my opinion a product of the internet and all that the internet has opened us up to the world - good and bad.

It just makes things faster.

AND don't you just love that word disruption.

Disruption to a business, it started with your Google's and has now upset the taxicab business, hotel business and on and on....

Everything seems to have changed to a more I want that now and if I can't have it now I don't want it.

To be fair there are those rarities who have got to the long-term investing thing so much earlier than I and they range across all ages.

I really havent changed much since 2002 when I bought the bulk of my portfolio.

What I am hoping to change is my reactions to what happens in the market - instead of reactions after the fact I want to react before they happen and that will mean watching closer than I have done before - if that's possible!

I finally have got rid of the WHS shares and it seems, while I reacted far too slowly, I reacted quickly enough to get a decent price. They are now selling for a lot less.

Like you're differences between the WHS and HLG. Hallensteins are making an impact online wearas The Warehouse seem to be all over the place with their offerings and barely make in impact.

Why is it that in a world of HLG vs WHS, why does HLG continue to innovate while the WHS remains stale and staid.

That perhaps a title of another column for another day.

Happy long term (and short term)investing.



Related Share Investor reading

For a taste of your Whisky

Some Bedtime Reading: Graham and Dodd's Security Analysis
10 Basic Buffett questions to ask before investing
Be an active investor
Stick to what you know
Investors can learn from my stupidity
Hard times make great businesses
Fear and Greed are lovely things
Research, Research, Research
Learn before you leap

The Intelligent Investor: Book review






The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition) (Collins Business Essentials)The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition) (Collins Business Essentials) by Benjamin Graham
Buy new: $13.25 / Used from: $9.24
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c Share Investor 2017


Friday, December 30, 2016

Is Mainfreight Worth 20 Bucks Plus a Share?


Image result for 20 4 note nz



The last time we visited Mainfreight Ltd [MFT.NZ] it was worth just over 10 bucks, just 6.5 years latter it is worth $20.71.


We should look at a few facts first to dispel any myths surrounding the company.



2016


*Net Reported Profit   88 mil

*Price Earnings Ratio (P/E) 22.65
*Earnings per Share (EPS) 96.24
*Net Tangible Assets per share 329.21c
*Total Net Div Paid (last full financial year) 40c
*Div Yield 1.79%
*Market Cap 2,079,000,000


2011


*Net Reported Profit  26 mil

*Price Earnings Ratio (P/E) 13.92 
*Earnings per Share (EPS) 47.88
*Net Tangible Assets per share 1.86
*Total Net Div Paid (last full financial year) 19c
*Div Yield 2.24%
*Market Cap 880,000,000


Source - Morningstar



The figures obviously speak for themselves.


The 2 sets of figures make the 2016 figures look good by comparison. 


I'm not going into the many other sets of figs like net/debt equity or the net margin as a % but they are generally within the range of a good corporate citizen.


Mainfreight would not operate any other way.


If you want to delve into these find another blog - I'm no longer capable of doing such things. 


Except to say if they ever break with tradition and find another way of reporting profit, I'm outta here.


I don't think that's going to happened any time soon because it seems ingrained deep within the Mainfreight culture that flim flam and politically correct nonsense does not exist.  


Good.


The company are looking set to tap that 3 billion sales mark within the next 5 years and there are all sorts of lofty figures that they have as a company as aspirations to set.


Now they just have to achieve these.


Not easy.


But logistics isnt easy and its not supposed to be.


Every client that they have is picked apart and put back together again to see if there is a more efficient way of doing things.


They seem to (and I say seem because I've only seen them operate at a distance not actually operate) really genuinely care about every client, like they are all on the same team.


I genuinely think this company could be a big player within the global logistics community within the next 10 years.


It really is up to them if there share price goes up from here - they are not going to split the shares.


Is it worth 20 plus bucks a share?


Sure, if you believe the company is on an every increasing arc of successfulness.


But if your like me you'll wait for that nervous investor who sells out, that big overseas institution who decides to leave NZ. 


The price then drops then your in like a robbers dog if this company has been on your radar for some time.


Your welcome.



Mainfreight @ Shareinvestor



Share Price Alert: Mainfreight Ltd 2

Mainfreight's European Acquisition a Good Move
Share Price Alert: Mainfreight Ltd
Investing in the Stockmarket: Timing your Purchase
Stock of the Week: Mainfreight Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd: 2011 1st quarter Profit Analysis
VIDEO: Don Braid with Paul Homes on the Economy
Mainfreight Ltd: Full Year 2010 Profit Analysis
Long Term View: Mainfreight Ltd
Share Investor Interview: Mainfreight's MD Don Braid
Stock of the Week: Mainfreight Ltd
Questions to Mainfreight's MD Don Braid
I'm Buying: Mainfreight Management delivers the goods
Mainfreight Annual Report Packs a Punch
Analysis - Mainfreight Ltd: FY Profit to 31/03/09
Mainfreight VS KiwiRail: The Sequel
Long VS Short: Mainfreight Ltd
Why did you buy that stock? [Mainfreight Ltd]
Mainfreight 2008 Annual report worth reading
KiwiRail will cost Mainfreight
Mainfreight keeps on truckin
A rare breed
Share Investor's 2008 stock picks

Discuss MFT @ Shareinvestor






Share Investor 2011-2017







Monday, December 26, 2016

Broker's 2017 Stock Picks

This year among the brokers Fisher & Paykel seems to be the winner. 

Where were they in the early part of this decade when they were trading @ 1.80?

Just wondering.

The rest can be put in the same category.

And keep this in mind:


Pick these stocks on dips in their share prices - they ALL have dips.

AND - do your own research - lots of it. 

It makes things interesting as well.

Next year could be another one like we have already had  - some dips but mostly up - or it could - drop but be mostly down. Whatever it is it will provide opportunities for all of us to make money.


Share Investor's 2017 Stock Picks


Blue chip and small cap stocks lead the list of expected market performers for the coming year
F&P Healthcare is expecting 17pc increase in growth in the coming year. Photo / Greg Bowker
F&P Healthcare is expecting 17pc increase in growth in the coming year. Photo / Greg Bowker
Some undervalued "blue chip" companies and a selection of small cap stocks dominate our broker picks for the year ahead.
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare gets the tick from four firms -- Forsyth Barr; Hamilton Hindin Greene; First NZ Capital; JBWere -- making it the most popular choice in an unusually diverse field.
Despite being perennial favourite the stock underperformed in 2015, but there appears to be a strong view that it now represents good value.
"[F&P] has come back significantly from all time share price highs, having reached a mid-year high of $10.90," says Hamilton Hindin Greene's James Smalley.
"We believe this has been on the back of concerns regarding litigation with competitors and a potential negative impact on their sales into the US. We see some headwinds due to production facilities being based in Mexico, and the incoming Trump administration signalling an increase in protectionist policies."
But, he says, the sell-off is an opportunity, given the short-term nature of the issues, to buy in to a quality business.
Rickey Ward, of JBwere agrees.
"F&P Healthcare is a genuine growth company with a track of record delivering strong earnings improvement from offshore avenues.
"We do not see this changing, with earnings growth approaching 17 per cent this coming calendar year," he says.
"Potential taxation concerns around Mexican manufacturing following President-elect Trump's success have been exaggerated."
Another mature company, seen as undervalued given it retains strong growth potential, is transport and logistics group Mainfreight.
It is picked by three brokers: Craigs Investment Partners; Hobson Wealth Management and JBWere.
"It's is a well-managed business with global growth options. Leveraged to robust economic growth," says Craigs Investment Partners head of research Mark Lister.
"Mainfreight should be well-insulated from increasing interest rates and has a very strong market position in New Zealand, which should continue to benefit from strong local growth, but it also offers some international exposure given is growing operation in Europe, the US and Asia."
JBWere's Ward notes: "Trading on 20 times earnings means they might appear expensive, but good companies tend to, and MFT is a good company."
From there several stocks feature twice in the 2017 picks.
Contact Energy also merits three picks, from JBWere, Craigs and First NZ.
"Contact has lagged its peers in recent years, so it looks like the value play in the sector," says Lister. "It has the potential to increase its dividend payout, and the retail strategy could bear fruit in 2017.
We also like the idea of hedging our bets a little, by including one yield stock. 
Mark Lister, Craigs Investment Partners
"While rising interest rates could be a headwind for companies in the utilities sector generally, we see a number of company-specific reasons why Contact could still deliver reasonable returns.
"We also like the idea of hedging our bets a little, by including one yield stock."
Craigs and Hobson both pick Restaurant Brands, very much with an eye on its growth potential following a major investment in Hawaii.
Restaurant Brands has offered US$105 million ($151m) to buy Pacific Island Restaurants, the largest fast-food operator in Hawaii and the sole Taco Bell and Pizza Hut franchisee in Hawaii, Guam, and Saipan.
"Restaurant Brands has a solid track record, capable management and offers stable earnings," says Lister. "The core New Zealand KFC franchise will see free cash flow steadily increase in the coming years, enabling the company to invest in growth areas like KFC Australia and Carl's Jr."
Another other stock picked by two brokers was dairy company Synlait; picked by MSL very much in growth mode and more indicative of the smaller cap stocks in the game this year.
The company has a market cap of $100m and won best growth strategy at the Deloitte Top 200 awards. It has invested heavily in the past and is well positioned to cash in on China's demand for infant formula.
The Fonterra Shareholders fund is a favourite of Craigs and JBWere.
"We continue to see underlying operational improvement in FSF. A change in compositional mix, with a management team committed to addressing inefficiency, has seen tighter controls on costs and capital expenditure, leading to margin expansion," says Ward.
Lister notes that rising dairy prices represent a headwind in some respects "however, the business transformation is well underway and recent operating results have been impressive, the company is reducing its cost base and improving efficiency, while the period of heavy investment has come to an end.
"We believe these factors are yet to be reflected in the share price, which offers attractive value," he says.
Beyond these four the brokers have cast the net wide.
Other stocks that fit the mould of "blue chips on sale" might include Auckland International Airport , picked by MSL Capital Management; Tourism Holdings and Infratil picked by Forsyth Barr; Contact Energy picked by Craigs and JBWere.
Hamilton Hindin Green has a number of similarly high quality NZ companies that look like good value at the moment, says Smalley.
It also included Chorus, Genesis Energy and Ryman Healthcare with Opus international as its wild card.
"It's about buying quality businesses when they are on sale," Smalley says.
Education group Evolve rounds out the stocks to receive multiple picks.
Ward says his team see Evolve as well placed to benefit from further government moves to support mothers in the workforce and notes the trend has similarities to the retirement sector several years ago.
"Acquisitions, developments and cost-out initiatives will see strong near-term earnings growth from a roll up growth opportunity," he says.
Beyond these companies there are plenty of small cap stocks and less familiar names in the mix this year.
MSL picks Green Cross Health, a small player it has chosen for a second year in a row, in what managing director Andrew McDouall describes as "a hot sector benefiting from an aging population, regulation and industry structure changes."
Vulcan Capital is picking natural healthcare products company Promisia Integrative as well as cancer diagnostics company Pacific Edge and NZ Salmon.