tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3686764185628666543.post7552268106688973599..comments2023-10-10T03:26:30.831+13:00Comments on Share Investor: Help me, I am making good short term money, it must be time to sell ?Share Investorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02150520236094812434noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3686764185628666543.post-31994467860095696082009-07-30T19:18:36.377+12:002009-07-30T19:18:36.377+12:00I am pretty much with whatever works for the indiv...I am pretty much with whatever works for the individual, in terms of investing, is the right thing to do, short/long, stocks/property whatever.<br /><br />What the long term investing approach accentuates is though is the ability of the investor to pick companies that will be good for the long term/never sell and that is the main determiner of future success along with the price paid in the first place of course. <br /><br />That is particularly hard in NZ but I believe I have picked reasonably well, for my own reasons, stated in this blog and not stated. <br /><br />I would love to have a full written up analysis of your approach to balance things up because this sort of discussion helps others to chose what might be good for them.<br /><br />I use spell check on a regular basis, it comes with your blog SB:)Share Investorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02150520236094812434noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3686764185628666543.post-23445949285773592922009-07-30T14:57:39.141+12:002009-07-30T14:57:39.141+12:00First, I wish I had the time post more, you can te...First, I wish I had the time post more, you can tell by my blog I am just not dedicated enough. Second, my spell checking skills are shocking, and I should not be allowed near an editor in normal circumstances. I typically trade more liquid markets, so I have little to say about the NZ markets, which is why I read your blog. I only follow a few NZ stocks which I find interesting. However if I feel the need or desire to write something, I will be sure to forward it to you for posting. Thanks.<br /><br />I still think the study is flawed, however we are not in complete disagreement. I have some stocks I hope never to sell. However as soon as there is a change in the fundamentals of the business or industry, the intrinsic value of the company must be revalued and if something has materially changed then the stock possibly sold (e.g. demographics, generational changes). If a stock is consistently under priced in the market based on it fundamentals (cashflow, book, earnings growth), then I see no reason to not hold it forever.<br /><br />Every system has faults, and short term swing/trend trading has many such as whipsaws, high commission charges, etc. Also the biggest problem where short term traders tend to miss many of the really big moves in the stocks.SBTradeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05733253279331854250noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3686764185628666543.post-57582738670199354762009-07-29T21:32:36.186+12:002009-07-29T21:32:36.186+12:00I beg your pardon for misstating what you said the...I beg your pardon for misstating what you said then but as I said I believe my study, while arbitrary actually proves my point of the superiority of long VS short-term investing.<br /><br />It isn't flawed, but we will never agree on that.<br /><br />I must say that selling just because share prices went up over fundamental value over the last few years doesn't wash with me either, but if you are going to sell clearly that is a great time.<br /><br />I intend to hold for a very long time, for that is when the best returns are made on the stockmarket.<br /><br />I would never point out any faults that your investment approach might take because it clearly works for you and I would never dare tell someone what might be best for them.<br /><br />By the way would you be interested in writing a few guest pieces on short term investing while I am away for a month or so?Share Investorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02150520236094812434noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3686764185628666543.post-78132028926630507512009-07-29T15:02:30.820+12:002009-07-29T15:02:30.820+12:00I would like to correct you, I never stated that y...I would like to correct you, I never stated that your buy and hold strategy is flawed, I mentioned that your conclusion of your study was flawed.<br /><br />You have picked two completely arbitrary dates and compared them. This is not a fair comparison of long versus short. In fact it is rather nonsensical to have picked 1 year and 10 years exactly to have the comparison considering the strong downward trending bias of the last year and the strong upward trending boas of the previous 6 years.<br /><br />As a value investor you should not be selling based on your price gains, but rather based on whether the market price of the company meets your calculated value of the company. If the current price still undervalues the company why would you sell? <br /><br />As a short term trend trader, I have been known to ride ternds in mining and biotech stocks for years and hundreds of percent returns, so I am not a short term trader, but I will take my money off the table if either the stock is overpriced or the trend reverses.<br /><br />You major fault has been to not take your gains when the industry fundamentals changed in 2007. The stock prices of companies at the top of the market in 2007 must surely have been trading over your intrinsic value calculations at the time. Which should have been your signal to sell. <br /><br />Tax issues are of course another topic altogether, and I will not discuss them here.SBTradeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05733253279331854250noreply@blogger.com