Saturday, January 30, 2016

Welcome to Sharetrader Members! (UPDATE)

I note the site Share Trader site has been down for over 24 hrs. Come on over

 I seem to have some visitors from there reading this blog.

We have a history between us, I used to contribute as member to that aforementioned forum and was banned for having an opinion.

I have been banned for life so it seems, because I have been lurking here and there but eventually caught out.

Welcome to those of you that knew me on Sharetrader as Bongo and to those of you that don't thanks for reading this blog.

If however you would like to contribute to my Share Investor Forum, you are most welcome to sign up and let rip. I don't censor strong or contrary opinion to the website owner, nor am I bound by loyalty to advertisers or make you sign a disclosure that abdicates your right to the content you submit.

Sharetrader do!

I am independent and proud of it.

So welcome Sharetrader members, welcome to Share Investor.

You can get the forum at the following URLs:

www.shareinvestor.co.nz
www.shareinvestorforum.com
www.shareinvestor.nz




Security Analysis: Sixth Edition, Foreword by Warren Buffett (Security Analysis Prior Editions)Security Analysis: Sixth Edition, Foreword by Warren Buffett (Security Analysis Prior Editions) by Benjamin Graham
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c Share Investor 2010, 2016


Sunday, January 17, 2016

Murray & Co: Overachieving Kiwi-style


I had to hunt high and low but I found something.

This piece really has everything a little Fisher & Paykel holder really wants to know.

What he neglects to tell us is, has Mike Daniells passed all his business acumen on.

I would have to answer that by saying yes by looking at the figures, 29-800 million, in 26 years.

What is more important is, has he passed that "we are a company that is going to spend northwards of 70 million next year on R & D" and you would have to say yes again.

Lewis Gradon is still there as head of R & D and as long as he is I don't have one worry.



undefinedThe biggest value creator in the history of the NZ sharemarket, Mike Daniell (CEO of Fisher & Paykel Healthcare) quietly handed in his resignation slip recently without any fanfare or great media interest.
Mike Daniell’s board at Fisher & Paykel blew his trumpet on the announcement of his forthcoming retirement but they really should have played a full reveille. This is the untold story of NZ finance, a company that grew from a prototype made with an Agee preserving jar after a physician at Auckland Hospital in the 1960s became concerned about the adverse effects of ventilating patients with dry air.
Consider the numbers. When Daniell took charge of the Healthcare division in March 1990 his predecessor was ruling off the accounts showing about $29m of sales and $4m of EBIT. When Daniell steps down in March next year 
Photo: Dave O'Hare and 3280 Humidifier (1970)

Healthcare will report sales of over $800m and EBIT of >$200m.
Annual compound sales and EBIT growth of 14% and 16% respectively over 26 years; approximately $500m of shareholders funds turned into marketcap of $4 billion - that’s $3.5b of value creation, 99% of it on Daniell’s watch, the biggest such “market value added” on the NZ market.
If Healthcare had been a listed company the whole time it would have been a 100-bagger. As it was it saved its previous parent company, Fisher & Paykel Appliances, and has done well since listing despite currency headwinds.
How has the company achieved this? Five key aspects, all pointing to good strategy from the top:
A consistent team, in particular Lewis Gradon and Paul Shearer, who have respectively led the R&D and international sales teams over the same 26 year period.
The company persistently plugged away (through sponsoring numerous studies and direct marketing) at the seemingly boring hospital humidification market, gradually leaving less committed competitors in the dust.
It then segued into humidifying air used in “blowers” for sleep apnea in the home. The company quickly worked out that people would get sick of having separate blowing and humidification devices hogging their bedside table and introduced a combined unit before anyone else. This action led to a much bigger fast-growing market.
The company determined that value is in consumables and introduced (and importantly concentrated on) proprietary chambers and tubes to go with its hospital gear and masks to accompany sleep apnea devices.
It has invested in R&D to open up new sales areas, the latest of many is humidifying air pushed over body parts during surgery.
Daniell is an old-style NZ CEO, little ego, no twitter account, his one company generates export sales the equivalent of 60% of the vaunted NZ wine industry with about 1% of the fanfare. Thanks Mike.


Fisher & Paykel Healthcare @ Share Investor

Share Investor's 2012 Stock Picks
Global Market Sell-Off Stocks: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Resmed takes market share from Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Resmed kicking Fisher & Paykel Heathcares butt?
Share Price Alert: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd
I'm Buying: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd
Share Investor's Total Returns: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd
Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks
Stock of the Week: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare & the US Dollar
Mondrian Investment Partners take stake in Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare: 2010 Full Year Profit rests on Foreign exchange movement
Long Term View: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Stock of the Week: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Analysis - Fisher & Paykel Healthcare: FY Profit to 31/03/09
Schroder Investment Management takes big Fisher & Paykel Healthcare stake
Long VS Short: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Big Fisher & Paykel Healthcare trades a curious tale
Why did you buy that stock? [Fisher & Paykel Healthcare]
Drinking and Trading
Share Investor's 2008 stock picks
Fisher & Paykel: A tale of two companies
FPH downgrade masks good performance

Discuss FPH @ Share Investor Forum
Download FPH Company Reports


Project Management Essentials For Dummies, Australian and New Zealand EditionProject Management Essentials For Dummies, Australian and New Zealand Edition by Nick Graham
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Wednesday, January 13, 2016

The Warehouse: What the ***k is it doing?

The Warehouse


Let me begin this piece with I no longer wish to be a shareholder in The Warehouse.

You have seen it before.

The Warehouse finally seems to have done the business, straightened things out and is now on the way to increased sales/revenue and therefore ever increasing profits.

It did this a few days ago when it showed 'promising signs after spending about 200 hundred million odd (this time) on this that and the other' - buying companies left/right/and centre. (the speech patterns are mine but the above takes up a good few years of this and I'm too tired to re-hash the same old stuff)

But is the Warehouse going to buy every retailer in the country in order to be 'Where Everyone Gets a Bargain?' (watch out Dick Smith)

No.

They have to get more people through their doors and the way to do that is through offering THE cheapest branded goods around.

That is it.

Leave the rest up to us.

If by the smallest of chances I'm wrong and this is just the beginning of a new era of the red sheds,

Good luck.

But, you have lost a loyal supporter.



The Warehouse Group @ Share Investor

Share Investor Q & A: The Warehouse' Ian Morrice  
Share Investor Q & A: Questions to The Warehouse' Ian Morrice
Long Term View: The Warehouse Group Ltd
Share Investor Short: Warehouse Group yield worth a look
The Warehouse Group: 2010 Interim Profit Review
The Warehouse: Big Brands, Big Opportunities
Warehouse strike opportunity to buy
Long Term Play: The Warehouse Group
Share Investor Short: Warehouse Group yield worth a second look
Woolworths supermarket consolidation an indicator of a move on the Warehouse?
Stock of the Week: The Warehouse Group
Warehouse 2009 interim profit a key economic indicator
When will The Warehouse bidders make their move?
Long vs Short: The Warehouse Group
Warehouse bidders ready to lay money down
The Warehouse set to cut lose "extra" impediment
The Warehouse sale could hinge on "Extra" decision
The case for The Warehouse without a buyer
Foodstuffs take their foot off the gas
Woolworths seek leave to appeal to Supreme Court
Warehouse appeal decision imminent
Warehouse decision a loser for all
Warehouse Court of appeal decision in Commerce Commission's favour
MARKETWATCH: The Warehouse
The Warehouse takeover saga continues
Why did you buy that stock? [The Warehouse]
History of Warehouse takeover players suggest a long winding road
Court of Appeal delays Warehouse bid
The Warehouse set for turbulent 2008
The Warehouse Court of Appeal case lay in "Extras" hands
WHS Court of Appeal case could be dismissed next week
Commerce Commission impacts on the Warehouse bottom line
The Warehouse in play
Outcomes of Commerce Commission decision
The fight for control begins soon

Discuss WHS @ Share Investor Forum - Register free 
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Security Analysis: Sixth Edition, Foreword by Warren Buffett (Security Analysis Prior Editions)Security Analysis: Sixth Edition, Foreword by Warren Buffett (Security Analysis Prior Editions) by Benjamin Graham
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c Share Investor 2016



Tuesday, January 12, 2016

Some bedtime reading: Graham and Dodd's "Security Analysis"


I am in the process of re-reading David Dodd and Benjamin Graham's 1934 bible on investing.

Security Analysis.

It deserves a re-read after a life changing event like a stroke and from what I have read so far it kind of reinforces the conclusions I came to before heading down its 725 pages.

This 725 page giant of a book was written at a time where the global economy was in a depression brought on by the over exuberant roaring 20s and the subsequent 1929 stockmarket crash.

This book was initially looked at when were going through what they call, 'The Great Recession' in 2008 - you fill in your year for the finish.

It has had several updates since its original edition and is often hard to come by in your local bookstore. A sixth edition was out in 2008, when I originally wrote this. I wanted to read the original book to get a feeling for the markets and general investment outlook of the time. Its relation to today's market conditions is still important to me.

From the Amazon preview of the first edition of Security Analysis:


The original words of Benjamin Graham and David Dodd--put to paper not long after the disastrous Stock Market Crash of 1929--still have the mesmerizing qualities of rigorous honesty and diligent scrutiny, the same riveting power of disciplined thought and determined logic that gave the work its first distinction and began its illustrious career.

In their preface to this book, Graham and Dodd write that they hope their work "will stand the test of the ever enigmatic future." There is no doubt that it has.


Now I have other books on my reading list but I want to tackle this one first, principally because it was the text that Warren Buffett based much of his investing style on and as my regular readers know I am a Warren Buffett nut.

I have already read Benjamin Graham's The Intelligent Investor but I felt I needed a more detailed analysis of his investment style and his and Dodd's Security Analysis tome fits that bill to a tee.

Many stockbrokers in the past have used Security Analysis to go back to in times of doubt, and given current market turmoil investors might be wise to start reading.

It is clear the majority of stockbrokers in the United States and in other global markets haven't even turned a page of this essential investment tool and I know that is more than the case in New Zealand stockbroker circles.

My local ASB Securities broker said what? when I asked him during a related conversation if he had even heard of the book! Even The Intelligent Investor was another language to him.

You can get a physical copy of the book from the Share Investor Bookstore or download it free here.



Security Analysis: The Classic 1934 Edition

Security Analysis: The Classic 1934 Edition by Benjamin Graham
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c Share Investor 2008 & 2016

Thursday, January 7, 2016

AIA: To Buy Now Or Not To?

Airport_Low

Would you buy Auckland Airport shares right now?

That is a very good question considering the first half profit will be announced next month you would have to say leave it to the other side of this announcement.

You would also have to say what about China whats it doing?

Well as far as the announcement is concerned that is going to be a good one for share holders - north of $80 mill for the half and that is more than likely going to boost the share price to past $6.

So the second question is worth looking at because it is a good one.

Is it worth waiting until the shite hits China then buy up or risk the share going up in price.

I bought my shares at 1.70, 1.50 and - 1,90, I think. I bought the during the depths of the great recession and they have turned out to be by best investment.

They have returned over 600% and my only regret is that I didn't buy 40,000.

SO, what are they going to do?

Well I can give you two pieces of advice because you are the one putting money on the line.

You can buy now with the inevitability that you are going to see similar returns (over 600%) or be patient (or if you think the China thing is another bubble you wont have to wait long) and wait it out till the stock-market has a correction (its not overvalued if you compare the income your getting from stocks to interest from the bank/having an investment house but long term it is overvalued on P.E ratios and a number of other financial ratios. )  

I going to stay shtuck (my google dictionary says that is not a word)on this for now and let you decide.

Whatever your decision it will be interesting.



AIA @ Share Investor

Share Investor Q & A: Auckland Airport's Simon Moutter
Auckland Council look set for a Auckland Airport Takeover
Auckland City Council new AIA Policy Doc
Make me an offer I cant refuse: Auckland International Airport Ltd
Long Term View: Auckland International Airport
VIDEO - Simon Moutter on Australian Airport Purchase
Auckland Airport Capital Raising a fair call
Auckland International Airport lands Australian Ports
What Infratil sale of Auckland Airport stake means
Is another Auckland Airport bid likely under a business friendly Government?
Latest Airport coverage
Cullen's move on Auckland Airport has far reaching effects
Cullen's move on AIA tax plan Anti-Business
AIA profit stays grounded
Softening opposition to CPPIB bid for AIA
Directors of AIA bribe brokers not to sell
What is Auckland Airport worth to you?
Second bite at AIA by CPPIB might just fly
AIA new directors must focus on shareholders
Auckland Airport merger deal nosedives
The Canadians have landed
AIA incentive scheme must fly out the window
Government market manipulation over AIA/DAE deal
DAE move on AIA: Will it fly?


Queenstown Airport Buyout @ Share Investor

Queenstown Airport: Queenstown Airport Update
Auckland Airport CEO on Queenstown Airport Fracas
Queenstown Airport: Court Case looks set to Drag
Queenstown Airport: Loud Voices & Loyalty
Queenstown Airport: Air New Zealand's Crocodile Tears
Queenstown Airport: AIA purchase good Long-Term but will cost shareholders Short-Term

Discuss this Stock @ Share Investor Forum - Register free 
Download AIA Company Reports




The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition) (Collins Business Essentials)The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition) (Collins Business Essentials) byBenjamin Graham
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Share Investor 2016


Tuesday, January 5, 2016

Sky City: Time to Show Your Hand - and Our Money.

Image result for sky city hotel

Nigel Morrison must be in two minds at the moment.

On the one hand we are doing well, on the other he is about to change the look of the company forever.

What is he doing with our money?

I say our money because it is our money.

Shareholders.

Their hand has been pretty much shown in the fact that 1 billion plus has been laid out and the first of the returns from it are about to come in this reporting period of Feb 11 2016.

I was reading the 3 quarters year about revenue and profit in October 2015 (cant remember where but I read it) and I read that Nigel Morrison was "extremely satisfied" with results. That's accountant speak for seriously happy - so were in for a good result.

What well look for is some serious revenue increases in Adelaide, Auckland, Hamilton, Queenstown and perhaps Darwin.

The accompanied figures will be the profits. They must show an increase and a propensity to increase as money is spent (the part I mentioned above - 1 billion).

They should continue to increase from here (with a few ups and downs).

I'm not sure were the additional tables games and slots come into play - they could be there already - so we could just start in the new year.  



Sky City Convention Centre @ Share Investor

VIDEO - Sky City Entertainment Group : Parliamentary Question related to Convention Centre
Sky City to pay for National Convention Centre
Share Investor discusses Convention Centre proposal with CEO Nigel Morrison
Sky City Convention Centre Expansion a Money Loser: Part Two
Sky City Convention Centre Expansion a Money loser
SKC Convention Centre power-point slide illustrations & SKC submission to Auckland City Council

Sky City Entertainment Group @ Share Investor


Sky City Gaming: Morningstars look at Sky City's gaming
Share Investor's Total Returns: Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd
Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd: Presentation to Macquarie Group
Morningstar Revalues Sky City Entertainment Group
Guest Post - Michele Hewitson Interview: Nigel Morrison
Failed Sky City bid for Christchurch Casino good news for Shareholders
Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd: Christchurch Casino bid falls short of Investment Criteria
Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd: Never mind the width feel the volume
Sky City Annual Meeting & 2011 - 2012 Profit Forecast
Stock of the Week: Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd
Sky City set to lose National Convention Centre bid
Sky City Entertainment Group: Australian Acquisition on the Cards?
Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd: 2010 Full Year Profit Analysis
Sky City Entertainment Group 2010 Full Year Profit Preview
Chart of the Week: Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd
Share Investor discusses Convention Centre proposal with CEO Nigel Morrison
Share Investor Q & A: Sky City CEO, Nigel Morrison
Sky City Entertainment: CEO Nigel Morrison discusses 2010 HY
Sky City Convention Centre Expansion a Money Loser: Part Two
Sky City Convention Centre Expansion a Money loser
Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd: Download full Company analysis
Sky City 2010 full year profit looking good
Long Term View: Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd
Sky City Entertainment: CEO Nigel Morrison discusses 2010 Half Year
Sky City Entertainment Group 2010 Interim Profit Review
Sky City to focus on Gaming
Sky City debts levels now more manageable
Insider Trading on Sky City shares
Sky City Profit Upgrade: Always on the Cards
Sky City's Current Cinema "Boom" a Horror Story in Disguise
Stock of the Week: Sky City Entertainment Group
Are Insiders selling Sky City Stock?
Sky City Entertainment 2009 Interim Result Preamble
2008 Sky City profit analysis
Sky City share offer confusing and unfair for smaller shareholders
Sky City Entertainment 2008 Full Year profit results , NZX release, 2008 full year presentation, result briefing webcast, financial statements
Sky City 2008 profit preamble
Sky City outlines a clear future plan
As recession bites Sky City bites back
Sky City Assets: Buy, sell and hold
Why did you buy that stock? [Sky City Entertainment]
Sky City Share Volumes set tongues wagging
Sky City half year exceptional on cost cutting
NZX Press release: Sky City profit to HY end Dec 2007
Sky City Cinemas no Blockbuster
Sky City Entertainment share price drop
New Broom set to sweep
Sky City Management: Blind, deaf and numb
Sky City sale could be off
Opposition to takeover
Premium for control
Sky City receives takeover bid
Sky City Casino Full Year Profit to June 30 2007
Setting the record straight
Sky City CEO resigns
Sky City Casino: Under performing
Sky City Casino 2007 HY Profit(analysis)
Sky City Casino 2007 HY Profit

Discuss SKC @ Share Investor Forum
Download SKC Company Reports






The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition) (Collins Business Essentials)The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition) (Collins Business Essentials) byBenjamin Graham
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The Essays of Warren Buffett: Lessons for Corporate America, Fourth EditionThe Essays of Warren Buffett: Lessons for Corporate America, Fourth Edition by Warren E. Buffett
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c Share Investor 2016

Saturday, January 2, 2016

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare; 2016 : A Time to Spend


The blue and white breathing circuit, made by Fisher & Paykel.


Fisher & Paykel Healthcare.

Well,  the first thing you can imagine is I hope as a share it does well.

I do.

Secondly you would have to hope it does well as a company.

I do.

I have so much faith in this company and I will tell you why.

They have put lots of money into research, approx.70 million in 2015 and even more in 2016. That is the secret to their success, by continuing to use money made in the business, they provide an even greater return.

As long as they do this and never ever cut back on money put into the business it will continue to do well.

However if you see money put into research as a percentage of revenue lower, it wont take much longer than 16 months to 2 years before you start to see things go the other way.

So its important that you watch the bottom line.



Fisher & Paykel Healthcare @ Share Investor

Share Investor's 2012 Stock Picks
Global Market Sell-Off Stocks: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Resmed takes market share from Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Resmed kicking Fisher & Paykel Heathcares butt?
Share Price Alert: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd
I'm Buying: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd
Share Investor's Total Returns: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd
Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks
Stock of the Week: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare & the US Dollar
Mondrian Investment Partners take stake in Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare: 2010 Full Year Profit rests on Foreign exchange movement
Long Term View: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Stock of the Week: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Analysis - Fisher & Paykel Healthcare: FY Profit to 31/03/09
Schroder Investment Management takes big Fisher & Paykel Healthcare stake
Long VS Short: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Big Fisher & Paykel Healthcare trades a curious tale
Why did you buy that stock? [Fisher & Paykel Healthcare]
Drinking and Trading
Share Investor's 2008 stock picks
Fisher & Paykel: A tale of two companies
FPH downgrade masks good performance

Discuss FPH @ Share Investor Forum
Download FPH Company Reports




The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition) (Collins Business Essentials)The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition) (Collins Business Essentials) byBenjamin Graham
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c Share Investor 2016


Friday, January 1, 2016

Keep Trading




Well last year was another fine one for the 1) Portfolio.  2) See an update of Portfolio.

It was up considerably.

This year is going to be about the 2 halves - it always is - the winners and the losers.

Me thinks this year is going to be great for the New Zealand market and the U.S.

Asia and Europe and Russia will just bounce around under Govt regulation.

We just have to trade and continue to trade.

It is to the benefit of all nations developed and developing to let its individual's trade for that is how they can strive to become rich.

So I say 2016 is the year of getting Govts out of the picture and letting individual's seize control.

Piss off.






The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition) (Collins Business Essentials)The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition) (Collins Business Essentials) byBenjamin Graham
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The Essays of Warren Buffett: Lessons for Corporate America, Fourth EditionThe Essays of Warren Buffett: Lessons for Corporate America, Fourth Edition by Warren E. Buffett
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Share Investor 2016